Short Seller Report, page-523

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fcmaster26

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12/11/21

13:14

Post #: 57528506
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Originally posted by Mozza01: ↑

Ah, no.....not correct. There is a difference.

Risk calculation may be part of gambling (for some) but, for the most part, it relies on chance/luck. The probability of a particular outcome in a gamble is always the same - e.g. rolling 2 dice and getting a seven. You cannot change the probability of the outcome by any level of research. In this example, it will ALWAYS be 16.67% and therefore your confidence level can only be 16.67% no matter what is rolled beforehand or how much research you do.

Risk calculation removes much more of the element of chance that is present in gambling and relies more heavily on the research. The probability of a particular outcome is dependent on the information at hand and the level of research undertaken - e.g. having a higher level of understanding of how various types of DLE work and how that applies to a particular project. The more information at hand, the higher your confidence level.

I am not a gambler just because I'm an Investor. I use research and skill to improve my confidence level....and don't rely on luck to achieve the outcomes I'm looking for.

Luck had nothing to do with me investing in VUL from 29c.

If you choose to invest based on luck (seeing it as a gamble) then that's your own strategy.....and good luck with that!
gamble
/ˈɡamb(ə)l/
Learn to pronounce
verb

1.
play games of chance for money; bet.
"hegambles onfootball"

Similar:
bet

wager

place a bet

lay a bet

stake money on something

back the horses

try one's luck on the horses

play the ponies

punt

chance one's arm

have a flutter

game

2.
take risky action in the hope of a desired result.
"he wasgambling onthe success of his satellite TV channel"

calculated risk
“Calculated risk-taking is operationally defined asthe ability to deal with incomplete information and act on a risky option, that requires skill, to actualize challenging but realistic goals.”

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First of all, congratulations on your return. That was very impressive.

Countless variables should be included when deciding if a business is going to be profitable. To include, analyse and quantity all the correlated elements of potential risk is, to me, impossible.

If you have a proven methodology to do so, then I'm talking to an extremely wealthy person and I envy you for your brilliance.

I sincerely hope this is the case because I hate to see people losing a fortune for overestimating their capabilities.
VUL Price at posting: $10.50 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
2 Upvote

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