MC $150m earnings pa (at least for the first 3 years until...

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Phitte

98 Posts.

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05/02/18

14:01

Post #: 30826471
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Originally posted by GCar ↑

You keep talking down the "valuation" but provide no working whatsoever.

Let's use some ballpark figures shall we...

All 3 ops running with decent output (a few years away sure, but on the horizon)...

MC humming along, +$100m earnings pa
JB, larger than MC, say +$150m earnings pa
SDV, say 50ktpa, say $10k/t earnings = $500m pa
plus LPD and other opportunities = who knows

so, perhaps somewhere around $750m earnings pa
P/E 12 = $9b market cap = +$18 per share; add some dilution, say +$15 per share
P/E 15 = +$11b market cap = +$22 per share; add some dilution, say +18 per share

Anything "more precise" than this is not really practical imo. It's all estimates with the unknowns in production / product pricing / production costs etc.

And yes, before you point it out, this may take more than 3 years, but the market is forward looking, and therefore we should be closer to these numbers than the current number in 3 years from now, especially if those other 2 ops are far advanced by then and it's simply a timing issue rather than a "will it ever happen" issue. Hence my +$10 estimate.

oh, and what happens if the Lithium price doubles or triples from here...?

Enter your own numbers above. Either way it is a long way up from here.

Share something, and let's discuss the basis for some future valuation, rather than just repeating that it hasn't dropped to fair value yet.

What are your basic numbers for "all three projects running"?? How do you arrive at sub $6.50?

Unless of course it doesn't suit your agenda...?

C'mon, play along, it'll be fun.

IMO blah blah

Expand

MC $150m earnings pa (at least for the first 3 years until additional supply comes online)

JB, say +$150m earnings pa (at least 2 years from production, more like 3, if there is a drop in lithium price this is unlikely to be brought online).

SDV, earnings = $229.61 M post-tax again 2 years before production, GXY has never done a brine mine before. http://www.galaxylithium.com/media/announcements/1740898.pdf

NPV = 1B+600M+1.77B = 3.37/0.405B shares = $8.32 absolute peak price

Give or take 0.5B in unaccounted expenses and lost opportunity.

GXY Price at posting: $3.04 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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