Short squeeze party thread, page-132

Looking at the sequence of events over the last 2 weeks, the whole things smells:-

• Last week, after STX released a series of positive announcements (funding, SE/Peaking plant update, W7 Flow Test, Spud of ED) STX rallied from 23 - 28c. That week, the net short position reduced by 17mio shorts (Mon 239mio shorts to Fri 222mio total) . As part of that rally and as it was EOFY, there was some window dressing.
• Then after markets on Friday, Wiseman at MBL releases his very negatively skewed and subjective research report.
• Monday this week, STX tell the market they will sell their WE gas much closer to market prices after the option expired, a false positive.
• Same Monday, said hedge fund, smashed STX back to 23c before everyone had even finished their morning coffee. It was nearly as if MBL (with their rubbish very negative report) and said hedge fund had planned a coordinated attack, with or without Monday's news. The plan worked perfectly.
• Data to support Monday's activity was released today - ASX shortman now confirms what we all already knew, net shorts grew back up to 240mio, in one day, price back to MBL prediction.
• Hedge Fund active all week to cap the price, with large offers placed above price, never intending to be executed. Algo working overtime.
• MBL then comes out with update report and says I told you so.
• Its not a stretch for them to pat each other on the back and say, the plan worked perfectly

Ok so maybe i am drawing an assumption or two, but it smells.

So what happens from here....

Hedge Fund - i am willing to bet its a large global one with a local presence, that is most active, is rolling the dice on two events IMO.... they are betting that ED is a dud or betting that the WA policy doesnt fall STX way. Both feel like a flip of the coin. The other catalysts are not material enough to really matter to them - these are the two that matter IMO. Market knows W7 will be additive. What other downside events are material enough that the shorts are waiting on? Plus they need major liquidity events to get out.

IF both the above "flip of the coin" events go STX way, then we have seen how quickly the short covering can move the market. Now the main two downside events have evaporated, do they try and hang around until the rebal to get out? Finally, the shorts will be low on stock to borrow, so there is only so many times they can keep selling big clips into the market to cap the price. Early August, presents a great opportunity for a long only asset manager/HF to run a major squeeze event and flush the shorts.

Feels like a high risk strategy by the shorts.

All eyes turn to early August IMO.