I just had a look at Chalice (CHN), Core (CXO), and Sayona (SXY) who exited the MSCI Small Cap and ASX 200 in the March quarter period. I did this because there were no ASX 200 exits/entries in June.
So for the March quarter, the important dates were:
The MSCI index change announcement date was Feb 12, and the effective date was Feb 27.
The ASX 200 accountment date was March 1 and the effective date was Mar 18.
Interestingly, for all three companies, the changes to the MSCI index caused bigger changes in the reported shorts than the ASX 200.
For Chalice, it was the effective date (Feb 27) for the MSCI index that saw the biggest fall in shorts. This was associated with a nice run-up in the price.
For Core Lithium and Sayona Mining, the shorts fell on the announcement of the MSCI rebalancing (i.e. around Feb 12). Core Lithium had a bit of a price in run on the following days.
Interestingly, the ASX 200 announcement and effective dates didn't have a major effect on reported shorts.
So, I'm wondering whether this Friday is when we'll see the biggest move in short-covering, and hopefully some upward price pressure. This may even coincide with the ED results.
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