I'd also expect arrears and charge offs to remain low. Latitude's investor reports for its securitised receivables showed a significant decline in charge offs and arrears rates when the income/household cashflow support measures were introduced in Q2 of 2020. Its receivables are not 100% comparable, but I think it's reasonable to believe there is some overlap in the repayment patterns given their aging, terms and size.
Who knows what "normal" is when it comes to forecasting future arrears/charge off rates, however I expect the growth rate of household cashflow to be negative in the first half of 2021, simply due to programs rolling off. It won't create any problems for the 2020 results, but just something to watch out for in 2021H1 for this and other consumer credit plays. (all references to calendar year).
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