You have really nailed it here. The bet the snorters are making is actually a very reasonable one, given MSB's history, where we have seen the pattern you outline here repeated ad infinitum.
The only thing that would really put paid to them in the very near term - and in a fashion that would NOT permit them to unwind quickly - is something whose impact is SO MASSIVE that cannot be picked apart and/or fade and degrade over time. In my mind, the clearest thing in that regard would be the FDA's surprise approval of Rex-L for CHF.
A partnership for CHF would be pretty huge news, too, even if not as blockbuster as a full approval, and would likely leave the shorts panting for breath.
Otherwise, we are waiting for word on GVHD approval to really drag us permanently out of this hole. Until then, the shorters can continue to play these same games, where time is on their side when you consider that all of our other announcements are just good/promising news on the way to potentially great news in the next 6 months to 5 years, thus allowing them to exit strategically as and when it suits them, i.e., NO real squeeze:
NEJM? Nice, but not approval, no cash tied to the same;
No conditional approval given by FDA for CHF, but instead a new trial design announced? Nice, but no approval, and results will be YEARS away;
Filed the BLA for GVHD? Nice, but no guarantee of approval and MSB not drawing another CRL;
Trial for COVID ARDS with NIH? Nice, but no guarantee of success in trial, will likely need to wait a year for results; and/or
Trial for CLBP? Nice, but no guarantee of success, and will need to wait a year or more for results.
MSB Price at posting:
$1.20 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)