short term ascending triangle

QBE

The month of March is just about past and look out for the month long formation of an ascending triangle ( dark blue dotted in the background). Equal highs with a retest of higher lows have formed a great looking wedge ( triangle ) ready for the breakout north.

Looking at a few indicators on the chart.

The Pink pitchforks medium trend line is where I have started on the gap down of the close. We have had a solid retest on the lower fork ( marked test in blue)and will probably see another small one again.

The yellow inverted speed angle at the start of March will repeat the price action hitting a roof of the 200EMA ( moving average at the top of the chart), Thats if the rules of ascending wedges play out.

The red moving average (9 days) will start to cross the white 20 day moving average within the first 10 days of April, letting all the stock scanners used by traders know of a MA cross over (positive).

The yellow moving average will meet the middle of the pitch fork so a little bit of retest may happen ( probably gap up and retest on either the yellow MA or the fork. Quite common to see a gap up over a middle fork, before retest (another good entry spot.)

Remember team, we have a window (gap) to close in the high $22s. Expect profit taking at $22.40 ( around the pink 200 MA ) and possibly more consolidation before we close the window.

Volume has been low the past few days, watch out for the traders looking for a hedge or an entry into the US dollar via a stock the correlates with the US dollar.

Traditional cyclic lows of March are almost over, all we need is a little weakness in the Global Markets and a US dollar push will follow.

US dollar broke its ascending wedge a few nights ago so we should see a similar pattern with QBE if the correlation follows through locally.

If we break and retest $21.40, I will add a tight stop and treble my holding, averaging up for a change. Taking charge and following what the big boys do, add to winning trades.

If you were to enter now,

Entry 21.35
Target 22.86
Stop 20.98

Risk 1.8%
Reward 7.1%

Well thats my short term forecast, probably no better than a weather forecast a week in advance but I enjoy sharing with you all. Stops will be my insurance if I have stuffed up my entries.