Smoke signals/ Buy and sell signals Collated by Aljini
Poster: Freehold Date: 10/06/16 Time: 19:01:54 Post #: 18010285 So Exit Strategies...
Well here's the bad news "there is no perfect Exit Signal, strategy or algorithm that works every time" ... and trust me Ive calc'ed 100's I use a suite of strategies... But perhaps the simplest and one of the most effective is...
Draw straight edge trendlines Connect either 3 points on high low or Close or draw a line that encompasses the majority of trading action (ie straight edge Trend Channels) and sell when it crosses or closes either above or below them... Simple and very effective.
What's not so important is the exact placing of said trendlines... What more important is you must act when they are crossed... that in my mind is the key "you must take action".
Poster:valen1828 Date: 11/06/16 Time: 09:51:35 Post #: 18012467 Entry exits can be as simple as following a line crossing the price line . ie an average of some sort. different time frames and averages will move this around somewhat so is best finding what suits your time frames and what works best percentage wise for success to how you read your own market rules and guidelines .
I follow the blue forty day linear line in my charts but this is not rigid ruling as end of day trade for both entry exit as i scan round this linear trend. ie you want roughly a short term trade you need your indication be shorter term where you don't swing in out to much like maybe a day trader will but you want stay with trend for as long as possible before the market throws up something .
ie a top short term where you may sit out and look for entry again. ie if you look at pml chart just follow the blue line it could be the green line as in speckledjim etc and watch for cross of the price line for entry exit .
Looks simple but is harder to execute. Now all lines will cross again the priceline at some point. Sotheory is the further your indication is from the price line the more tendency the stock will pull back to this priceline at some point and cross .
This is where i lose trend with indication and have change if I'm going hold. iei need longer indication or swap to fundamentals perhaps?
Now because i have tendency for entry towards bottoms i need my trends be giving me support. ie wait for longer term trend lines to cross also for added security the trend had changed .
You may even use a different indication here. Likei use the trix which is triple smoothed average but one of its supposed strengths is picking market bottoms. you could use rsi or many others out there .
But sticking with having longer term indication also crossing gives a bit of strength to the chart and the physiological battle you will have. Same could be with the top but here if your short term you want lock in the gain and treat those battles with reward find the new stock etc maybe .
Hope that helps. But if you go simple like kmac points out and you get rewards percentage wise what ever coin flipping your doing a success rate round fifty percent should be ok to make money from .
ie picking fifty percent stocks right. Some people have this much higher to theircredit. The great Fib never run that high a percentage from memory but gee could the tips come through and stay above that percentage overall . Poster:TraderGT Date: 11/06/16 Time: 14:45:31 Post #: 18013614 Buy signals
1. - This is the best smoke signal for me.........You ever seen a stock that always has plenty of sellers in the market depth but anything at Market gets snapped up for days or weeks but the SP doesn't move.......that's the kinda play I like to enter!
2. - The volume indicator - Abnormal volume - You see Volume increase to different levels that a smoke signal that something is up, that's when you re-check your charts and FA for clues!
3. - The obvious one of some large on market buyers, however you need to be careful with this signal.....make sure you aren't getting in to late!
4. - Broker data - Use of Broker data can be a good tool......however Broker aren't always right! So don't take brokers buying and retail selling as a smoke signal. Just remember many STT tips have had brokers selling and us buying and them buying back higher! haha.
5. - You can create your own smoke signal - HOW you ask? - Research is a powerful tool! You may find a seriously undervalued stock and share that knowledge.
I can tell you from experience Researching for "diamonds in the rough" is often and long and difficult task, I'm sure the above would agree there is no magic tricks to finding value just time consuming hard work!
Sell signals
1. - A stock that has already moved and has a stacked buy side I.E. a lot of BIG buy orders........that's your smoke signal to sell.
2. - Excessive ramping and Ten's of HC posters coming out of the woodwork on a stock......if you go to buy they are likely selling their shares to you....
3. - Volume for no SP increase....likely the stock has supply and it's the smoke signal to exit to return lower or move on. Poster:Sector Date: 11/06/16 Time: 17:57:49 Post #: 18014305 SMOKE SIGNALS
I agree with your volume smoke signals (yr pts 1,2 and 3 together), and we have been experimenting with it this year. I think along with volume, OBV is important too. Larger buys than sells.
So far, I think it's worth looking closely even if a company volume spikes on news, and doesn't hold highs, even drops back, as so many that volume spike off bottoms have a lot of stales to initially work through. If they churn for a few weeks without dropping, can be a good time to enter.
One other smoke signal I look at is director/SSH changes (in or out). Director appoints are worth looking closely at, and I noted Fib used to be a master at putting the jigsaw together in past. So when I read a director/ board change, always look into background and you can get some early insight by joining dots. *For sellers, a CFO sudden exit might be the opposite/ a warning.
Poster:FullMoonFever Date: 11/06/16 Time: 19:35:45 Post #: 18014725 I'm not great at the entry / exits myself most of the time or always reading smoke signals....kinda like a few others have posted as well. Prob why my tips % is just avg.... sometimes to early, sometimes too late...lol
But what TGT & SL have covered def make the list in what I try to think about as well but I have started to try remove some subjective elements and trying to find a relatively clear cut unemotional TA point to provide some straight discipline.
Sort of like @Freehold said about the trend line... break that and out....simple.
Fortunately in some ways, I work full time and trade / invest part time and treat this current period as a kind of apprenticeship in most ways to iron out bugs, learn as much as possible, test diff thinking / strategies and leverage off the gurus of the HC community so that when comes the time to ratchet it up a notch in the future....I have much more confidence in my methods. So....the unemotional entry / exit - smoke signals....here are 5 stocks I just grabbed off SL's Zinc list purely as examples.
Whilst I use other styles / charts for various views, I am trying to hone the Heiken-Ashi further and simplify it down as a visual to dig at certain points for entry / exit & trends. Two similar but slightly diff HA charts below on each stock...same indicators though. I look at both as kind of an overlay of each other.
Std HA with Avg True Range Stops (blue & yellow line) & HA as EIS OHLC bars (which are coloured to encompass MACD & 13 day EMA) with another overlay that prompts poss entry / exit points via arrows. I am testing and using the ATR breaks by the candles and the trend arrows with the other indicators to try get in on a trend and stay in longer or get out...no questions no emotions once a change happens.
Anyway, AMI, HRR, IBG, PNX & RVR with highlighted corresponding areas for my smoke signals
