Not really a New Years Resolution maker because at my stage of life, the emphasis is on New Days Resolutions. In the spirit the w/end theme this can be translated to trading. Like most dt/st traders I make heaps or wrong calls so have learned to live with egg on my face. But refreshing resolutions might reduce that occurrence thks @Freehold.
"Trade the trade" and following daily action is one strategy, not suited to all and even tho it may feed into "fear and greed" it forms a central part of mkt participation. Investors who take the time to assess the "real" value of stocks and their underlying business usually get the payoff in the end. But these two notions are not mutually exclusive. Am sure most have a long term investment pf where the "gems" go. Each to their own, but aiming for the best of both worlds is not such a bad goal.
For me buying a stock means I get a "feel" for it. Done my homework but does anyone else like it currently or am I in for the long haul? Can my money be better used trialling something else rather than tied up while the business is building or will it build? Of course, the moment you get out, the stock usually takes off.
Anyway back to daily resolutions;
each day for trading
. review scans, price/vol up will it go up agn, pullback, consol, critical levels, S/R; alerts noted
. ASX news, mkt sensitive?
. regional, national, international events, will they have any effect on mkt (eg recent Aus govt MM export news)
. newsletter, subscriber only info (effect on PSY)
. brokers recs
. any relevant forum info - significant others
each day for long termers
. news events
. major downgrades and their effects on your stock - longer term or just a temp blip?
Well that's the plan. Execution is another matter, especially with early WA start. But most important is to remind myself to try and keep an open mind and be ready and receptive each trading day for what could happen.
My trading resolution is to actually learn how to trade properly. For the past 2 years I've taken a bit of a haphazard approach to it, and as a result I hold too many positions and don't do my due diligence on any of them properly. I've edged out each FY with a small profit, but that's because I got lucky, and I'm aware that luck is not a trading plan! But, this is year we (hopefully) start having kids, so it's time to get serious.
Steps:
Read the STT library properly. I've skimmed it, but haven't taken it in fully
Cull my positions.
Not buy anything new for a while, until I'm clear about what I'm hoping to achieve and have conviction in what I'm buying.
Start contributing more to the STT. Given my relative inexperience, I haven't felt like I've had much to contribute. But I've taken a lot out of the STT, and appreciate all the effort everyone else puts in, so I need to give back. Goal 1) - a STT comp tip this month.
(I'm hoping putting the above in writing publicly will force me to do them, rather than just think about doing them)
Thanks to all for the time and effort and quality posts and @Freehold for the hard work that goes into the STT.
I enjoy the stt weekend lounge ,as its a very welcome break from some of the negative , argumentative stuff thats out there in the HC jungle ...holy crap it takes all sorts .
My resolution this year buy early after more research,
And follow my three rules
1 Shit happens
2 Stay calm at all times
3 If confronted with rule No 1 ...observe rule No 2
Thanx again for this oasis of knowledge and relaxation
I have been following the STT thread for a couple of years or so and the resources here really helped me develop my own trading style and become profitable.
But it is actually more than just being able to choose a good stock with an entry point, what is more important is to correctly position size your bet and manage the risk appropriately. When I see posters indicate they lost more than 40% of their account, then I know that they are not managing the risk properly and have too much money riding in the one stock.
The other important factor is to measure what works and keep a trading diary, that at a minimum measures size of wins, size of losses, number of wins/losses so you can calculate your trade expectancy and average win per dollar risked. Anyway, perhaps this detail will be expanded upon at a later time.
I don't think of them as resolutions, more as targets to be achieved.
Not everyone is comfortable with posting figures as everyone has different capital available to them and so I will stick to percentages.
I started with a set amount of money in Sept 2015 and by choosing a mix of shells and stocks breaking out from a trading range I have grown this at around 4.2% per month, which on an annual basis is around 70% per year. Better than cash in the bank but probably not as good as can be achieved in these good market conditions.
So my first target for 2018 is to aim to increase this return to an average of 8% per month. This should be possible by not letting stocks lie idle and also by cutting losses promptly.
My second target for 2018 is to post at least 52 tips to the STT Comp. and to maintain or increase my average win from 64.3% and to increase my accuracy above the current 34.8%. More tips at the current rates or better will increase my returns and so will assist in hitting the first target.
If any of the other frequent tipsters want to try and improve their results, then you already have an existing measure to better for 2018.
My new years resolution is to stop caring about the attacks and just spend my time more productively. Unfortunately the majority of stocks I buy into have holders who have lost 70% plus of their money due to holding from way higher so gotta look through the frustration and realise there is a real person behind that poster who has lost money that could be severely impacting them and their families.
Personally for my own Improvement in trading this year I will focus on not giving lots back to the market when it does turn. The first 6 months of last year I Probably gave away half of my portfolio. I just lost sight of some of the big valuations my stocks were sitting at prior to the market turning. Thankfully the last 6 months of the year got me everything back and much more and so every day I have been looking at my stocks now and asking myself questions like the below
1) is the Sector still hot
2) how is the market cap compared to peers. Are there better plays in the same sector that are cheaper than mine?
3) what are the cash levels and where will more money come from.
4) what big newsflow is still due that will keep momentum going
As an example I bought NAE at 1.5c and it went very quickly to 4c+. Coking coal was hot and NAE was smashing through any resistance. I got blind and never even realised coking coal started to dive and renewable energy became the flavour of the month. Next thing you know we are back to 2c and I hadn't sold a share or locked in any profit.
So moral of the story is focus on the reason why you have bought a stock even after you have bought in. Fundamentals change all the time and our analysis always has to be on guard.
We will always give some money back to the market when it turns but if we can limit how much we give back then we won't only survive, we can thrive.
I think it is important to publicly air some mistakes and goals in order to help being more accountable.
As I mentioned previously, I have been messing around for 9 months. I have invested foolishly and sometimes well. For example, 2% of my portfolio is locked into CMY, which I may never see again. Also, 5% of my portfolio is also 'locked' in HML. The best trades have been in 'riskier' stocks/options.
My average per month for the past 3 months has been 3-4%. With respect to the time spent on my portfolio, this is reasonable. However, in a bullish market, this is not a great return. These results reflect a lack of decisive trades. They also reflect levels of research. Third, they reflect difficulty making decisions with too many stocks being juggled/followed. Also, sometimes I find myself staring at my portfolio/charts/buy depths etc.
This year I am aiming for an average of 7% per month, or bagging in one year. To do this, I am committing to:
1) Spending less time 'in' my trading software
2) Working on making decisions quickly and with less emotion
3) Reduce the total number of stocks held at any one time to 15-20
4) Taking larger positions in ~10 stocks and holding for longer with tighter stops
5) Taking 1-5 smaller risky plays, holding for shorter periods
6) Reporting failed and winning losses more often in the STT (accountability)
This is big on my list of focus - As of right now I’m still oversized (about 50% of my portfolio) on one stock (VEC) but struggling to sell any of my parcels because FA is just trumping my need to ‘follow a rule’ - I know the risks but accept and justify it and therefore can’t overcome this cycle, despite having experienced the worst of it...
It has backfired on me last year also in a big way - I’ve only been trading for only 13 months now, and within 2-3 trading days around October I lost the equivalent of just over 200% of my starting capital and about 45% of my portfolio at the time, was quite surreal.
Like some have pointed out here it’s helpful to be transparent about losses and I try to disclose as often as possible (playing on 5 grander helps with this) as it is not only to the benefit of others on HC, but really forces you to examine what you have done, why, try to justify it, try to play devils advocate, try to understanding the costs (whether actual or opportunity cost), understanding why you made those decisions in general - writing it down such that others will read it is very different than thinking it through in your head.
I’m also active on a group chat with about 4 other traders which is great for stock discussions but am also frequently discussing what goes through my head and it’s a great way for us all to learn from successes and losses in equal measure, and learn from each other to accelerate the education process.
Highly recommend to anybody who is not doing these things already, however acknowledge it can be hard to find people in real life to talk to (I would love an experienced mentor, but where to start and who to ask!). In the absence of another outlet, I think being open and transparent about losses on hotcopper is important.
Not much for NY resolutions myself. If you want something enough, you will do it rightly or wrongly no matter what time of the year it is.
But if there is anything I want, it is just to stay alive, not lose my shirt in the market and continue to learn about the ever evolving market dynamics and drivers that control it. Anything else whether monetary or otherwise is just a bonus.
I don’t set income goals. For me, it’s make hay when they sun shines, then prepare for when the sun goes down and the inevetable dry spell comes. For me, it’s about survival, not how much can I make in one year - I’m in the game for the long haul as I enjoy the game and the challenges that come with it.
Funnily enough, many of my dry spells coincide when people around here seem to be doing the best and my better times are often when many seem or appear to be struggling. Seems I’m not buying into frantic hype so much anymore, I.e conglom gold - only 2 trades and definitely zero LT holds. Happier buying out of focus stocks when the focus has shifted into frantic hyper bubbles and distracting a lot of eyes from the value plays, or plays that actually have an asset not attached to P&D type trading - the odd exception excluded.
Wish all a good 2018, remember, it’s not all about money! Health and happiness is the key to help create wealth imo. Remove one and it all becomes rather meaningless. Oh, and don’t forget about your other (better?) half... a lot of time goes into trying to succeed in what we do, it’s easy to fall into your own little bubble and forget about those around you.
Share the love, share the spoils of life, keep your emotional intelligence and ego’s in check, have the other half clip you around the ear when it gets out of balance!
I think it's important to never follow anyone blindly, main reason is that you would be adopting a very bad habit early on that will set you back from becoming your own person.
When i first started, i used hearts as stock scanner. Normally most of the ones i had followed did some very good research post notes that would save me hours of researching ... But, even then, they are not guaranteed to make you money so always do your own research.
There is so so meany ways to trade and make money, so meany indicators in FA or TA that also have different levels of learning and trading. I think it's very important for anyone to learn as much as they can about the different styles and indicators, and even trading different time frames. At lest that way you will be familiar with what works for you and what doesn't but also will help in understanding what posters are talking about.
On a funny note, when posts spoke about pennant, ice burg, wedge , flag , 50 dma crosses the 100 sma.. I use to think these TA posters where these eccentric weirdoes in white lab jackets behind a screen. I had no idea what they where saying.. still don't at times.
But getting back to hearts, i think some posters with out one, deserve one for the info they post and the way they carry them self online. There is also some hearts in the past and present that i don't think deserved a heart.
It takes time to sort the buyers from the spyers, the needy from the greedy, and those to trust from the ones you don't.
My strategy was forged in the aftermath of the GFC devastation and seeks ensure that I come through a similar event relatively unscathed. See Pilot strategy in STT KL.
So in answer to your questions
1. My strategy remains the same small pilots are where biggest risk lies. Once past pilot Stage I almost never take a loss. I say almost as sometime a Stock may fall 60% via a gap on bad news thus eating up most of profit buffer but this is pretty rare.
2. I don't short stocks rather I abstain from taking new positions when greater market is in decline/downtrend.
3. If thing are getting "dicey" Vix index up or some big negative % moves on world markets indices then for existing positions I tighten up stop losses. and start reducing positions sizes on existing positions. Sell into strength where and if I can find it. You can always buy back in if you are wrong.
4. My invest time frame is based around the FA of a company (has the reason I invested come to fruition?) or has the greater market or sector weakness cut short prospects for the co?
5. Ideally I like to be in cash early on during a market fall ... and not invest. I use the down time to have a break , rework my software, and reconfigure hardware. I also use the time to forensic analysis of recent trading to see if I need to rework and trading rules.
6. Probably the most critical thing I do is a lot of stock research (but not trade). I look at the stock that are resisting the pull down or the ones that seem to not be feeling the full effects of the negative sentiment and are in sectors I think have potential. The one that resist the down pull are the one that will more likely go north strongly when the market turns
When the market is ready to turn up I like to be like a tuned up race car with new tyres, fresh oil, a full tank and a rested driver raring to go. When the market does turn up all most other competing folk are Bear Market battle fatigued, and react slowly to the new bull. Some of the best $$ can be had in the early parts of a new bull.
Thinks to look out for:-
Crossing 10 and 30 EMA on the XAO/TSX , XEC, SP500, DJIA, TRAN, RUT indices as well as the SSEC (China) , Nikkei, FTSE, CAC and DAX when the 10 crosses the 30 to the down side be hyper vigilant. Also look that the 150d & 200d SMA in the major indices if trading above these then good, below is confirmed bear.
Vix rising sharply, 30 yr US bonds rising sharply (Money moves from stocks to bonds in bear markets and vica versa in a bull market.)
...if several of your stocks in a sector all turn down in unison become hyper vigilant
