Unfortunately I haven't been in the game long enough to know who holds a long term track record.
I guess this helps me as I'm forced to go with the flow and back the hot teams. I guess every broker, dealer is doing well in this market. Once again disclaimer: I'm not implying these guys will remain hot forever, but to me this is simply a game of psychology and understanding the human mind...and what other people will pay up for. So I just go with who's hot and in the right sector and seem to do okay. A secondary disclaimer is for this to work I require a market thats either wiggling sideways or moving up. I'm hopeless trying to pick winners in a falling market lmao.
The ones that have done best for me I tend to follow:
Broker Deals:
CPS - Quality deals, good hit rate in both tech and EV metals
GTT - I like when these guys are on a register if the company is cheap and near its lows they're good with lithium. They tend to sell once the deals done after a bag or two...but often the run continues much longer AVZ, 4CE, LPD (PLP), MQR, VKA, FRN
Otsana - These guys seem gun to me at tech deals last two years. They however do require patience but eventually quality stands out and there is money to be made. GMV, OOK, FGO (CR8), RAC, XPE (RYG), DTZ. They're failed deal was SVT. Two commodity deals CAI has done well. JDR has just come live and is doing well.
Individuals:
Jason Brewer - WFE, 4CE, VEC, CFE, FEL. I think the worst performer so far is WFE which is 200%+ since his appointment.
Tolga/Evan Cranston Combo - JRV, NCZ, EUC, DRG, HEG, AL8, FZO, MEI and more. Tolga shells generally trade a high premium $6-10M MC, there's three or four on the market.
Klaus - Market seems to back him and like him. Paying premium for CAV. BLZ, AVZ, TAR have done good. ARD not so well.
My thoughts haven't changed since two months ago, they still seem the hottest three on the market right now, money follows where they go.
Others:
Patersons/Bell Potter - Seem good with raises. Also follow Bahen's closely and like when they show up on registers.
Circero/MW - Quite slow but they deliver IAM was a Disallowed. YOJ 10bags too. ZIP another Disallowed. VTX was a multibagger. BLZ doing well. BRK,CIZ (I'm still stuck here), FRN slow. PCH/TMT didn't really hit it off.
Peak Asset - I like these guys cause they're incredibly helpful and friendly. I haven't kept close eye on their deals but OKR, G88 seem to have done well lately.
BW/Alto - If you can get into their inner circle, these guys have the tightest hands. They're raises trade like everything is escrowed lol.
As for posters I follow, or pay attention when they talk?
Just going off the hearts;
Anton: Used to disregard his stuff, but over time the longer I'm in the market the more I realise the wisdom carried in his words. I wish he was slightly more arrogant so he could drill few points into me earlier, I naturally picked them up over time and I'm sure with more time I'll be able to resonate with what he says better.
I.e things like register backing, get close to raise price/director buying and so on...things that make alot more sense/importance to me now than it did a year ago.
Gladiator: Young gun, my strategy resonates similar with his in terms of timeframe and focusing a few key high conviction plays at a time, hot sector with a hot team. Get in when the crowd is hating/burnt while a company is near its lows looking for a turn around.
Strauss/Minoil: These two pick things completely off everyone's radars at rock bottom. Its funny as time goes by I begin understanding the beauty of buying cheap and minimizing downside risk from a fundamental perspective. They're your local detectives.
TraderGT: Has gone a bit M.I.A and posting less, but once again also focuses on a few key plays at a time. Very good at picking sector moves before they occur an also seems well equipped on macro's.
ForrestField: Also posting less, wealth of knowledge and well covered across all sectors. Incredibly patient and well researched, and when he does pick them good they tend to be a mega baggers.
TreasureHunter: Posts on twitter, picks them out like a sniper. Very simple straightforward strategy, understands a good story, psychology and technicals. Looks for the right broker backing/management and has an incredibly backstory starting with very small sum
As for Fibs: I do feel hes a genuinely good stockpicker. The crowd/herd screwed it up, the process I've noticed is it'll jump circa 30% in two days from weak herd hands, then drip away. Although in time the fundamentals do shine out and they multibag. VAL, BDA, DDD of recent times hes picked out.
As for non hearts;
I always listen when W4G, Malaga, Greenbull, Jezzy posts about fundamentals.
I generally listen to everyone, even if its their first post. But when these guys tip something it likely means its worth taking a bit of time out your day and have a look.
I'm sure I've missed some quality posters but its quite late here lol.
Re: Weekend topic - I apply a common sense filter to people posting on HC. There are a lot of great people on here; thoughtful, skilful and sometimes even provocative. I try and read between the lines in peoples posts, to first find the best commentators, and then, as I listen to their commentary, to find the best stocks. I keep a tight view on the STT Comp to find a trend: In both stocks, sectors, and people. An example of this is watching someone like @Lambrae post thoughtful charts and achieve pretty consistently good results. Or @Malaga on his current winning streak.
If I foray into the stock threads, I apply my logic filter in a much more rigorous fashion. I wander into the stock threads purely for fact-finding and to get a good feel for a stock over the last 12 months.
Here's a methodology that others might find helpful - I use this to quickly work out if something is to go on the watch list, or on the 'do not touch' list:
1) Find stock recommendation - usually from a respected poster, or that appears multiple times on the STT
2) Add stock to 'Temp' watch list
3) Bring up the stocks chart. Zoom out from the month, and look at the full (max) chart, then zoom in to 12 months, 6 months, then 3 months, two weeks, and 5 days. Get a good feel for peaks and troughs.
4) Look at the 52 week high and low - consider where it sits on this continuum
5) Find a date on the chart when the stock went markedly up or down
6) Now find out why: Correlate the date to an announcement. Read it.
7) Then read the stocks thread for the announcement - what are people saying about the company, management, the resource or product or service during that time?
8) Ask questions about that spike such as: Was that an over-reaction? Was management involved (and how)? Does it relate to something core about the company?
9) If indications are positive - i.e. not at 52 week high, sold down recently, good management etc et all - then it goes on the watch list for a while as I get a feel for it's trading pattern (unless a macro event seems to be looming, in which case I might pilot buy early)
And here's an example, won't name the stock, but I'll follow through the 9 steps above and show you my thinking:
1) Stock get's tipped twice, and talked about on three different STT posts in a two day period
2) Added to Temp list
3) Looked at the chart - Bit of a yo-yo with a few extreme peaks and troughs
4) Sitting around it's 52 week low - not on it, but close
5) Find one period of more extreme volatility where the SP had dropped quite noticeably: Zoom in and inspect the chart and correlate the date
6) Read the announcement - pretty extreme event that seemed out of the ordinary and beyond the companies control. 7) Read up comments from the stock thread: Mixed reviews. Nothing to flag as being a long-term or systemic problem (an e.g. of this if you read a 4C and people say things like "...been on this stock for 5 years. These guys now how to spend money!"). Indication of the specific event seemed to have just spooked holders: Which means it will probably move back up on good news, as tbe underlying FA hasn't changed.
8) (a) Over-reaction (b) Management seemed to have handled it well (c) Non-core issue.
9) Added it to my watch list, and will consider buying in as I keep inspecting it's trading pattern (and any announcements that are released)
Sorry for the long post. Hope that helps someone...
5g I became part of it as I liked the idea and secondly to answer few of the random questions which were asked at STT re what is the minimum capital required to start the stocks... The whole idea was that “no capital is a small capital” as my own begining was fairly humble and my brother started with almost nothing.... I think all we need is a right strategy, hard work, dedication & motivation and focus... I will repeat the same that “no capital is a small capital” however if you want to maximise the opportunity you need to do it yourself... like everything else in life there are others both good and bad who have done the same thing before but its you who has to go the extra yard and make your way...
This also alligns with the weekend topic... who to follow?
Literally no one is worth following but everyone is... for me its more like a timing thing really... some people happens to be right space right time which gave them early mover advantage or contacts simply others do lack at that time... so who to follow? simply you need to follow yourself means you need a solid strong strategy based on your risk appetite... then you need research and heaps of it and then it will become easier...
Simply, strauss or minoil posting on a stock which has low EV and are in right space makes my life easy... I just then have to double check the facts and figures and have to check cash balanace debts etc... and I am in if it makes sense to me... a while back, minoil posted on RLC which made me couple of bags and recent example of LRS where I followed strauss and end up making money... of course there would be other examples...
when it comes to brokers, things change... so if I follow a certain broker when they happen to find the right space then right things do follow for myself... as I am a short term investor who analyse its investments on regular basis... sometimes I end up a holding a position longer than short term which for me is 1 week to 3 months... by saying this, my strategy does not change but the story of the stock does change and while I review my investment and end up holding my position as I think a certain stock is worth taking another short term position... For example, I got VEC at 0.5c almost a year ago...
I then kept buying the stock after consolidation as that was the main risk for me... I did more research Jason Brewer came up with a bit of history... but I like the tenements of VEC so I hanged in as I could not find any other red flag in the stock... the burn rate was extreme low like 80k a quarter for admin, staff cost, supers, director fees and all... they burnt 150k in 6 months which was very good IMO... now they announced their strategy of Major Acquisitions... I knew Jason Brewer was behind CFE and was visiting DRC regularly more than anyone else at ASX... so I added more shares as I thought a cobalt acquisition is on the way..... stock end of making two bags then I figured out a hint from their presentation at Down Under Conference that they were looking for 3m oz gold...
Was a bit disappointing for the market as they were expecting a cobalt acquisition hence the stock got hammered... I took the opportunity to buy a trading parcel as I knew there are not many 3mozs gold plays at asx... this is where I told myself that I have locked in 2 bags in VEC as a short term holding and now investing back in a stock which might do another two bags... so I have not changed the strategy but took another short term position in my own stock... then back to back acquisitions and both looked amazing to me hence I reviewed my position again and took another bag from VEC at 3c and opened another short term position from 3c base... so far I made 500% return on the same stock however my short term position has not changed... all this means that I am still a short term investor who analyses the situation as soon as the short term time frame lapses and if a certain stock still can providr another short term positions I grab the opportunity and if a stock foes not offer the same value I just move on...
This also explains that a certain individual/broker can take a challenge and is willing to go the extra yard like Jason Brewer has this time... he went to DRC way before others and now he is repeaing the rewards along with share holders in those companies... I know many will say its DRC and all the political opinions which come along with it... but one need to remember that all heaps of big discoveries are happening in DRC and all the majors are moving in like Glencore recently bought tons of cobalt leases from DRC... this is why i would say, good on JB for moving to place at right time and he has now build extensive relationships there...
By saying this, I am a short term investor and I will keep reviewing my positions as I go along... thats my strategy which works for me and I am happy with it... at the same time, I will repeat “no capital is a small capital” its the effort which makes the difference.... so please go the extra yard and hopefully you will see the rewards!
From September to December last year I worked my way through all the ASX codes trying to become independent - blaze my own trail so to speak. Was a great experience, but my tipping percentage dropped from 62% to 15%.
Nothing wrong with the fundamentals of those companies I tipped, in fact some of them are now finally starting to run a bit. Chart wise they weren't too bad, but most of my tips ended up going sideways instead of up.
That whole quarter did my head in. I think in the 5 grander I went from 10k back to 9k during the December quarter. Combine this with the curse where for two years I hadn't been able to grow my portfolio beyond the one bag limit. The market was hot and I was going backwards. Did my head in trying to figure out what was going wrong, and get out of that rut.
What was I doing right before, and what was I doing wrong now? How do I turn it around? A lot of frustrating soul searching went on.
It finally dawned on me that over the last two years when I tipped well or made money I was really, really, really connected with the particular stock. The fundamentals were virtually imprinted on my brain. I could read the forum, and connect with what people were saying. There was no confusion in looking at the chart - it was clean, simple and obvious. The whole thing virtually just leapt up at me off the computer screen, smacked me in the face and screamed at me you've got to be in this. Then I would look at the buy and sell queues day after day, checking the charts, until finally one day the stock would jump off the screen and scream at me "Buy Now, It's About To Run" ..... and usually it did. It was like the stock was part of you - an extension of you - and you could FEEL IT!
The tips etc that hadn't gone well, I kind of understood the fundamentals, the charts were OK, and it all looked pretty good, but there was no connection with the stock - I couldn't feel anything.
From that moment I thought maybe I should be investing in stocks that I can feel. So the 4,400 ASX codes that I had previously reduced to Watchlists of 400, I then reduced to 12 that I really connected with then, which then came down to 3 that I could feel - AGY, AVZ and FZO. Not long after doing this, the curse was lifted.
Not sure how connected other posters get to their stocks, but if your research isn't quite giving you the results you want to become independent, maybe connecting with them a bit more until you can "feel them" might help you a little bit.
1. Yes there is too much power with the media. There is also too much power with individuals using social media platforms to bring companies down. Sometimes the two work in unison.
2. Main stream media is always behind with market news. For instance I read a daily market update over my lunch time. My colleagues who read the "normal" news will ofter bring up stuff that is reported as current but I read via my news 3 to 5 days earlier.
3. It is rare to find integrity anywhere these days. I certainly would not be looking for it in the fickle media.
4. No personal experience.
5. Media Bank bashing always seems to knock some money out of my holdings.
On media and whether they might be too influential, or are in cahoots with those with vested interests, I disagree. This is just media. The markets are running hot and they will look for alternative angles, just like they would if the market was cold. If that influences someone to buy or sell, that's a unfortunate, but it can equally influence a person to question, review and research further.
If you're a person who would sell just because a journo said that there will be a lithium glut, or cobalt can be substituted, you'll likely make plenty more trading mistakes that eclipses that sort of decision.
Treat media as a catalyst, or a spur to dig deeper.
There are exceptions to be wary of. You will get some commentators who emerge with an agenda. It becomes clear eventually, and they should be disregarded. If you want a case study in this, look at a certain News/The Oz journo (business commentator, initials could be RG but might not be those initials) who is basically a mouthpiece for Me*it*on (spelt exactly that way, not the other way). He's gone from arguing that there's an apartment supply shortage and therefore we should build them everywhere to remedy domestic housing stress to there's an apartment glut and we should bail out the developers because the offshore Chinese who put a deposit down for a holiday apartment are reneging on off the plan sales. If you see a conflicted logic here, you're right, it is conflicted.
Thoughts on the weekend topic after reading the AFR and having a few Asahis.
1. Does mainstream media have too much power and what are their motives if any
Power – bit philosophical but I’d venture that media’s influence is a gift that its subject gives to it, and if it wasn’t them then it would be someone else. It is up to the individual be selective about what media they ingest and to hit it all with a decent whack of critical analysis.
A few q’s to ask - What is the overall message of this article, is it anything more than an advert or ramp, what does the journo/paper/company/source have to gain, is it fluff, is it an echo of another article, does it contain information that wasn’t available to the market, have they turned a good announcement into a bad one, has it been published after a big move has happened…
Motives – on an individual level it varies between journos. There are some gooduns out there and some less so, not unlike HC. I reckon one of the key day to day motivations is coming up with something people will hopefully read and that will satisfy your boss. Brokers and industry people passing journos ‘insiders’ fits right into this. See back page of Weekend AFR for someone being a tiny bit candid on this subject. It wouldn’t be getting any easier when most of our media sources are shedding journos in favour of reposting someone else’s news.
As an example of motives, I saw a few fund manager recos earlier in the year and GCS caught my eye. A bit of digging and it turns out the guy/fund recommending it first got in a November 2016 when it was 51c, a bit lower than its current 90c.
At a higher level, there are the editor’s motives (as reps for owners and their mates). I guess these are vying for readership and aligning with what the boss wants, which may well be against retail interests.
2. How often do there calls on market tops and bottoms turn out to be accurate.
It feels like the correct calls are just a function of how many calls they make. On the rare occasion they get one right we are sure to hear about it for a fair while, when they get it wrong it’s straight on to the next call. I still chuckle thinking back to the 'oils going below $20' call.
3. Are they pedalling "market manipulation" on a grand scale or not. Is there integrity there or not
I wouldn’t say it is intentional manipulation on a grand scale. Getting a group of conspirators to agree regularly ain’t easy. However, group think is very real. It is also a big echo chamber, once one news source publishes an exclusive it follows that the others must get something out on it as soon as possible to prevent their audience shifting away.
Media consensus is a warning sign to me. As a recent example I recall watching the gold price during the last US election, I swallowed the pill and thought the markets would go down and gold would continue up when B. A. Baracus got in. How wrong they (and I) were.
Integrity – not as a whole. There are individuals with integrity, and media sources with a higher relative level of integrity.
4. Specific media research companies are they worth listening to Rosskil Stromcrow etc
Yes, so long as you keep a few grains of salt nearby. I read the AFR, skim a couple Chinese newspapers, read a few newsletters and keep an eye on CRU research (thanks @Sector wherever you are). A fair chunk of it is rubbish and primary sources are usually better. Much of it serves a good contrarian indicator... Some of the short researcher’s behaviour is ethically questionable but still the material is worth reading.
5. example of where media stories have helped you make $$ or the opposite.
LYC – lost money after a media ramp
PLS – missed out after dismissing an early article and lithium as a result of LYC experience
SHV – media ramped it correctly then continued to ramp it on its way down
QIN - stayed away but comes to mind as media darling that fell from grace
Overall - have made money a few times selling out of a sector after seeing one too many bullish articles, have lost money a few times buying into a sector after seeing one too many bullish articles.
Note this thread had music theme classical . Some great stuff there and was surprised looking back on it how much we may love it as a thread ? Thinking will leave it open while reading the next weeks . Music can be good for many things .
