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$1.31 tfs corporation limited

Better tree management, IP, irrigation and research has lead to...

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gsad1000

5,998 Posts.

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23/03/17

16:05

Post #: 23579943
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Originally posted by villgeidiot ↑

to be sure the report is throwing a whole pile of mud pies and hoping some of it sticks , and its pretty transparent about its motivation for that.

But it probably only needs one claim to be true to do a lot of damage.

For instance fair point about using a projected yield of 19.8kg of heartwood per tree in the DCF valuation of the assets, when the last harvest yield and the projected 2017 harvest yield are around 10kg per tree. I would like to see an explanation for how yield per tree is going to double for future harvests.

The company's own price sensitivity analysis in note 7 to the accounts of the recent half year figures show a 10% decrease in heartwood yield would affect value of bio assets by some $65m, so a 50% reduction to current yield would result in a $325m impairment. So half the value of the company is in that one assumption.

Seems kinda dangerous to me

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Better tree management, IP, irrigation and research has lead to better survival and growth rates as well as better concentrations of oil, i.e. more heartwood.

TFC Price at posting: $1.31 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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