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$1.31 tfs corporation limited

Short term speculations with shorter's in mind for TFC, page-158

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AmbiGuity

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25/03/17

08:48

Post #: 23618433
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Originally posted by lukelee ↑

Simply speaking: the report is half bullshit, half guesswork.
Below is my reply to some of the comments in report.

"The only source of such future payments must come from funds raised from future investors (or the capital markets)"
What’s difference between grow apple and sandalwood? apple regrow, sandalwood don’t. TFS needs to expand its land and re-plant as much trees as possible to maximise the return 15 years later. If we exclude “payments for investment in own plantation and payments for land and buildings”, TFS have a breakeven cashflow.

“First, Shanghai Richer Link does not have an operating website.”
It’s very common for tree grower not have a website. They are still doing business in old way. How many Australian farmers sell their vegetables online?
Richer Link is a sales department set up by Singapore Global Forest Wood Company in Shanghai. Singapore Global Forest Wood Company owns a manufacturer in Indonesia called: PT.KAYU LAPIS INDONESIA, the website is: http://www.kli-group.com/
If you search "上海驰道林实业有限公司” in Baidu, set timeframe within a year, you will see they are hiring people.
Here is the link, install a Google translate add-on, you will see English version:
https://www.liepin.com/job/2167076249.shtml
BTW, Shanghai Richer Link in ranked top 30 Particleboard export in 3rd quarter 2016 in China. Here is the link: http://m.duxuan.cn/doc/20194779.html

“TFS’s Chinese website also directed buyers of sandalwood oil to contact Mrs. Jingyu (Eileen) Yang (“Eileen”). Her firm, Yitan (Xiamen) Spices Co. Ltd. (“Xiamen Spices”), maintains a website referring to TFS as “our partner” and offering sandalwood oil for sale in China…. Like Shanghai Richer Link, it does not appear that Eileen or Xiamen Spices has the balance sheet, meaningful operations or experience to successfully move material amounts of the sandalwood oil.”
Again, search “厦门一檀” in baidu, you will see the company description. It says:”It was established in 2014, is a subsidiary of TFS in China, is a focus on sandalwood products research, development, production and sales enterprises…” Basically TFS owns Yitan, Yitan is selling sandalwood products for TFS in China.

“2014-2016, the weighted average price of imported sandalwood oil was only USD 551 per kg, 80% less than TFS’s forecasted future price of USD 2,800 per kg.”
Sydney essential oil co is the largest essential oil retail&wholesale in Australia, on it’s website , Sandalwood oil are sold at minimum $4,989 per kg, Sandalwood Album oil is $1,415.7 per 100ml. Here is the link: http://www.seoc.com.au/search.asp?s=sandalwood&GO.x=0&GO.y=0
$USD551 per kg might be poached sandalwood or low quality oil mixed with fragrance oil.

"Academic studies project yields between 4.0 – 6.8 kg per tree."
Based on my research, 4-6.8kg heartwood per tree is not accurate.
“At age 16 y, the 32 S. album trees had mean estimated air-dry weights (at ~12% moisture content) of 5.8 kg heartwood tree−1 and 43.7 kg sapwood tree−1. The mean air-dry wood densities were 940 kg m−3 for the heartwood and 840 kg m~3 for the sapwood. Estimated heartwood weight was variable between trees, with the three largest trees each containing 24–30 kg heartwood, while nine other trees each had 0–1 kg heartwood. ” from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00049158.2012.10676406

I have also purchased sandalwood art from TFS, each log (skin removed) has quiet a big heart wood in it.
View attachment 518985 View attachment 518988 View attachment 518991

This begs the obvious question: if the assumed forward price of sandalwood oil is USD 2,800 per kg, why are the Company project level investment brochures advertising a price of USD 4,500 per kg?
$4,500/kg is pharmaceutical grade Indian Sandalwood oil for Santalis. $2,800/kg is more normal sandalwood essential oil.

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Send your resume to QIN, I think they're in need of someone of your skill and intellect. Great job.

TFC Price at posting: $1.31 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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