AUD unknown

Nice short on gold chookiewookie! :) The break below 1360...

  1. 447 Posts.
    Nice short on gold chookiewookie! :) The break below 1360 certainly presented at minimum a 10 point trade (2x hourly ATR).

    I however, wasn't as brave however.

    I took the trades (that I could understand) on CADCHF long (+90 pips), AUDCAD short (+65 pips) and the USDCHF long (+85 pips). Rationale was the CAD leading indicators result of 0.5% which surprised me (as a person who usually finds news boring.. that actually got me pretty hyped since I was expecting 0.2% given the oil rally and inventory related news earlier this week).

    As for trades now, I am suggesting some weakness in the GBP and the GBPCHF may be a consideration. The reversal pattern is in Elliott Wave terms an expanded (non-directional flat). Usually this would result in inverted H+S structures but looking at the build up (mostly CHF weakness), I expect this to be corrective given the correlation with the AUD.

    In a round-about way, i think the AUD will have a short-term reversal at this stage (stop loss at low of the day 0.9822 (0.9831- hourly ATR)) with a target to test the daily pivot at 0.9925. This will support CHF strength (short-term) as well in my opinion.

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    As for posting your thoughts about trades - if you are not confident to tell people about your trades, then maybe you haven't convinced yourself enough that you know what you are doing when you make the trade.

    I dare say people who are happy to post their thoughts have a consistent way of treating their trades and this will/should lead to increased profits.

    If anything at all, the only difference then for a person who posts and gets the direction right but doesn't make enough profits in a month would be due to trading lot size.

    I know a lot of people who make far less pips than others but make considerably more profits (in $ terms). Test this out on a demo account if you have the time:
    1. Trade the same lot size everytime.
    2. Trade 3x the lot size and have:
    a. 2 stop losses (Hard stop loss and mental stop loss)
    b. 3 Target profits
    i. Profit Protection point (can be a trailing SL system)
    ii. Maximum profit (your analysis LT target)
    iii. Structure profit (think of this as a scalping system where you identify reversals on a smaller time frame).

    3. Option 2 only that your 3x lot size has different multiples. Vary them by the Stop loss. The wider the stop loss, the smaller the trade size.

    I'll suggest that option 3 will give you the highest profits.

    Trade safe and have fun!!
 
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