Its a ripping market so quite a few charts. Also apologies there are a few charts from yesterday "hindsight" stuff so some have popped and moved. I'll just throw some thoughts on it anyways.
PCK Update: Chart from yesterday. Was looking interesting on the contraction and I wasn't sure myself if it was being re-distributed at highs or if it was absorbing old supply. Today answered the question, massive volume and break right into fresh highs. Should get a good kick from here after a few quiet days.
UWL Update: Still moving along sideways but I feel it is almost time. Perhaps late next week it should be on watch. I'm sure STT is sick of me talking about this by now.
Z1P Update: Massive break, will take a couple days churn IMO and for MA's to catch up a little. But one of the cleanest moves and APT being at all time highs and interest flowing back into BNPL space should do well for a STT move.
RED: This has been good to me for swing trading. Third swing I'm taking on this, gold doesn't look particularly appealing at the moment and probably need some consolidation. But I thought why not add a bit more "safety" in case Don starts tweeting again. Backtested today and held, might need a few more days to soak up before the move.
ALC: Looks very good, has been soaking up nice and tight. Had the pop today, perhaps one more contraction before new highs.
PNV: This one got away from me and not something I'm interested in anymore. Ridiculous buying going on since 60's.
DUB Update: Massive pop last two days. Will be worth watching on the pullback.
:QFE: Another BNPL style play. Pop out of IPO base. Although daytraders all over it so there's alot of noise about. Much better off waiting for the noise to subside, daytrading groups get bored after one two days after they enjoy couple pips and selling into the noise they create, so much better off waiting on that pullback to enter. If market likes the company it'll soak up the impatient and take it up much higher over a ST period, so can provide a better entry once it quiets down.
As for failed setups, M7T, ALK. Standout setup has been AVH from previous post but far too stretched at the moment for me to post it now.
Nickel Update: Ridiculous move, but the fundamentals are there to back it up. In summary, stockpiles are at lows. Indonesia which is worlds number 1 producer are banning nickel ore exports from December. Phillipines which is worlds number 2 producer has done a nationwide audit of nickel mines and found 4 that are non-compliant and will be pushed to government for shutdown decision. PNG has had a spill over causing one of their largest nickel plants to shut. Then you have electric vehicle thematic demand in the background. Ran into 2014 resistance, so now will come down to consolidating and seeing if it can push through.
SILVER Update: Even more ridiculous move. Sliced right through 6year resistance into highs.This one caught me off guard on how aggressive it moved. Almost like a bitcoin chart lol.
RHODIUM: 500% up since 2017. Something running completely under radar. I dont know many rhodium plays myself but this was flagged to me the other day.
ZINC/COPPER: Both similar chart, not the prettiest MT with the head and shoulders shape but they are both popping off cyclical lows.
Market overall: Baltic shipping index through resistance. Usually a good sign for China. Shanghai composite trails this index pretty well. Below is US Freight index which also remains strong and holding up. So some good signs amongst all the bearish talk and weak bond markets.
XEC: Yesterdays chart, was shaping quite nice. Today its moved in yearly highs. Sign of a very strong market overcoming that recent weakness early August.
DOW: Posted this chart before with all the springs. Looks to be playing out nicely and shaping up and pushing above MA's here. Very unpredictable though as it only takes one tweet from Don to send this thing flying in either direction. Although given the resillience shown lately its a good sign.
Shells: ARN should be out of halt tomorrow with a deal, Xcel capital behind this and them and their clients hold a chunk. So they'll be pushing for a good deal, the Xcel guys have been quiet since TNO 5-bagged so will be interesting to see which sector they move into here.
This doesn't leave many of these 20c IPO shells left. KRX, TMR, ARN, RFR have vended. I can think of maybe 6 left. I think could be alot of vends into base metals with Nickel and Silver moving the way they have and Zn/Cu at lows can make for good MT plays with instant gratification with Silver included. Could be a Pb-Ag-Zn combo or Ni-Cu-Zn, and with Mutanda shutting down the largest cobalt mine could be a Ni-Co vends coming in as well, few Ni-Co players getting some love even though I'm not particularly a fan of laterites. Many options for deal makers remain so I'm sure some of these shells will get more loving. One that has caught my interest (I'm yet to purchase) but I'm watching closely is TIN. Smashed off highs but T20 has remained strong and players continue to add. One seller (in orange). Blue is all the guys that added over FY. Green is new players entering T20.
NTI will be another one I'll be adding (but not for at least a month). They're almost dry on cash, so what you will likely see is the following -Placement underwritten by Cygnet -New subholders -Then a tech vend within 3-6months. Cygnet clients have been selling out the T20 over the last year, which is why I expect the raise to come in soon. They'll likely get reset at lows. So I'm waiting to see the raise price and size to be announced and will make a decision from there. These guys did the Vend for ISX which is now $1.4B MC. They also did GSW which 20bagged to $900M MC. So a smart group of operators.
SIS aswell finally woke up. Record volume +28%. Even then still just under my average price which goes to show how bad I did this entry, and how much better off you are buying at placement price. Oh well I hope it shines, not much social media noise on it, all I could find was an HC E-mail sent out about it, but not much else on what caused the buying?
Speaking on ISX, some of these valuations are insane. ISX PME PCK DUB PNV EOS WTC APT AVH, mind boggling but I don't question it anymore. Its the market we are in, they behave almost if once they get on a fundies radar it just becomes a race by fundies to take up as many shares as possible. Any pullback is munched and they keep moving. They make record losses and move higher lol, but I think more money is lost trying to find logic inside the market (both in specs & midcaps) rather than just playing the thematic and making money. Same group of people that were saying APT was overpriced 10bags ago are still saying it now, eventually they'll get it right but opportunity cost is also to be kept in mind.
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