An update from me on my $50K weekly gap strategy. Yesterday when I posted the watchlist for this week, I stated I still hadn't fixed gap setup v2 screener so still needed to do the monday night re-screen. The additional screen generated quite a few extra setups, several of which (a total of 10) had already been triggered yesterday, requiring me to enter them on the open this morning.
As a result, I entered 7 additonal positions - BPT, FLT, GWA, MIN, OSH, STO & SUL. There were an additional 3 positions that I chose not to enter, namely:
CGF - opened this morning below my stoploss level (so would have stopped me out had I entered yesterday)
CWN - went into TH this morning before the open
CIM - which issued a trading update that caused me to pause on taking the position (which I shouldn't do)
So I dodged a couple of bullets with CGF & CWN by not having been able to complete my screen until Monday evening. Lucky this time, but it could easily have been positive news that I missed out on, and having thought about it, I will take the CIM position on open tomorrow just to enforce the discipline to follow the strategy (which doesn't include trying to interpret FA news).
As it turned out, I had one position trigger a stoploss anyway - GMG - so the closed trade equity level is lower today than it was on the weekend.
Below is the updated and completed weekly screen:
And below is the position summary table showing the P/L status of all closed & open positions:
I have been scrutinising my backtest data because I still have questions in my head about a couple of issues that I have seen with the live data so far, namely:
Number of daily gap up opens that jump the strategy's weekly entry price. I found that I have misinterpreted the data and now find that approx. 20% of all entries in the backtest database involved a a daily gap up open, which is a lot closer to what I have seen in the last few weeks running live.
The seemingly high numbers of trades triggered so far. After further analysis I have found that while the weeky average is only 2-3 trades over a 20 year period, there was a reasonable number of weeks up to as many 22 trades were triggered in a single week (there were 28 occassions where 10 or more trades were triggered in a single week). So I conclude that what I have seen so far seems high, but is so far within what has been seen in my backtest numbers.
With these 2 issues clarified I now feel a lot more comfortable with what I am seeing, and will simply continue to press on ahead with applying the strategy and focusing on execution compliance to the strategy rules.
