Well it's almost a few days out from the tariff enforcement deadline. It's my opinion they only really exist to ensure China stay at the table and don't drag their feet, but were the Chinese to try anything funny I don't doubt they would be enforced, but I don't think anyone wants to see that. They've been delayed a few times so far, and I expect they will be delayed again if a deal isn't finalised on time with talks still progressing full steam ahead by all accounts.
That said, we are all very well aware by now that you can never write any possibility off when it comes to the trade war. But I think some media outlets might be overstating the likelihood of the tariffs coming into effect (I mean it's a great headline grabber so I can't blame them), but I guess we will see in a few days whether it's a Santa rally or a Satan rally (markets instead heading to the underworld).
Global markets are without doubt very sensitive to the outcome though, and I think where we stand at the moement there is more potential for downside than upside. We've already seen last week how little it takes to send everyone diving for safety. I certainly can't blame anyone that seeks safety as the deadline approaches, as you are somewhat gambling on Donald Trump taking the sensible approach which is not always his style. I'm anticipating a volatile end to the week if nothing else, but as has so often been the case over the past 2 years.. it looks like we may have to wait a little longer to see some kind of concrete deal unless they can iron out their differences in the eleventh hour.
