Cash 5 or 6 million. They are very tight with their spending and have a side hustle.
Sonic Health will hard launch PIQ's PromarkerD in the US on Jan 1st 2024. It is a test that can predict Chronic Kidney Disease in Type 2 Diabetes patients up to four years out with 86% accuracy. This enables lifestyle change or intervention with SGLT2 inhibitors to protect against future renal failure. There are approx 32 million Type 2 Diabetes Patients in the US , the PromarkerD test attracts approx $600 AUD reimbursement of which PIQ will paid a 5 - 15% royalty, Morgans, their corporate advisor think it will be 10% at least. Given they originally thought the reimbursement figure would be approx $230 AUD it would seem a royalty rate towards the higher end of the scale would be of increased likelihood. Sonic Health have 2 million diabetics on their books as clients and they will be their initial target. PIQ think, given the predictive nature of the PromarkerD test, that it will become the gold standard for the sector. Of the 32 million diabetics in the US 20 million are tested every 12 - 18 months, if Sonic capture a million of these then at a royalty rate of 10% it would be $60 million AUD. This figure does not take into account that a patient who goes onto SGLT2's will require further testing to monitor how those drugs are performing and help signal required adjustments. PIQ have a pipeline of such tests, the next two cabs of the rank will most likely be an Endometriosis test and an Esophageal Cancer test. Endometriosis affects 1 in 10 women, is notoriously hard to analyse and requires invasive surgery to do so which can lead to its own set of complications and misdiagnosis. The current average time span to diagnosis is 6.5 years. PIQ's test is a simple blood test and is 90% accurate. They have said that there will be an update on the Endometriosis test soon. They think they will be of particular use to IVF clinics where 1 in 3 of the clientele are affected by endometriosis. The cost of the current invasive analysis, a laparascopy, is $3000, it is thought that PIQ's test might retail around $1000. I've posted a 5 year monthly chart because I think it provides a decent picture given revenue should start to accrue in a few weeks time.
