DOW fell right to where I would've liked it to. Found support in that region, now will need a bit of consol and see if it can hold and continue. Fingers crossed no further escalation in trade wars or I expect it to break through that first level support.
Individual Stocks: FAR setup failed, dipped too far down from breakout and didnt get any support.
ABR weekly posted last time;
Had a nice continued push and now pulling back nicely. Here is the daily
Although this is just a technical trade. I got curious as to why all the volume coming in and the project metrics caught my interest tbh. Its no exciting sector, boring old boric acid but spot price has been up 10% last month and trotting along nicely. DFS optimisation complete, trading $44M EV. Project economics, CAPEX was the highlight, phase 1 - $US38M, NPV(10% discount) $US225M, project cashflows from phase 1 will self-fund it into expansion phase 3 NPV of $US1Billion. Into financing stage with Chinese visits, aiming for financing to be complete and construction to start in 4months. Regardless will be nice to see a soft pullback here before it continues on.
Alot of breakouts happening left right center, our spec markets acting quite well, even on back of poor trade news couple days ago XEC refused to drop. Best not to get FOMO, trying to stay focused and go for the best setups that aren't stretched. Here are some I like:
TMT: Beaten down to nothing. Showing signs of life here after a mini-SC (Selling Climax). Should be on break once 0.205 goes.
EDE: Another incredibly similar setup to TMT. Breakout once 0.048 goes.
GGG: Had been absolutely trashed on incredibly aggressive selling. Got a revival recently, showing a bit of interest yesterday for a potential to continue.
MML: One for a longer watchlist just to keep eye on. Gold broke out, this tried move but sold into at 0.43 again. Once 0.43 breaks (if it ever does) I expect this to go on a decent run.
JAT: No chart, but similar case as MML. Just keeps getting smacked from 0.062. Been watching it carefully, everytime gets close to 0.062 break someone comes and smacks a million shares into the offer.
Sorry for the incredibly slow reply. Re: our convo about milk.
AHF I actually liked it couple months ago, but a friend (with a fairly sharp eye) said same thing as you, management have been sub-par, which is why I decided not worth my time. The other issue with AHF is their margins are just not good enough. Last 2 quarters they've managed margins of about 22-24%, this would be okay but they pay their staff far too much. $5.7M in sales, for $1.3M profit, but paying staff $1.3M per qtr won't be viable with corporate expenses on top of that. They'll need to either need to increase sales by about 50% or begin cost cutting and changing up management. JAT has same issue, they are making an absolute killing on revenue, but margins are like 10% or less. Could be a seriously good business if they can fix up their supply chain and reduce product manufacturing cost. Both AHF and JAT trading similar valuations with same issues.
Hence, LON still my pick of the pack trading at same valuation levels. Class management with Ex-Pioneer of BAL. Group margins of 44%. Revenue grew 110% from their new acquisitions, expecting further revenue growth on all two out of three business lines. Expansion and acquisition strategy pretty much completed and management have said they'll be cost cutting even more and expect better margins for David Dairy business. AN1 was an IPO I was gonna have a look at but they've had delays in listing, would've been the cheapest milk player.
Anyways, LON this is what I'm seeing at the moment and breakdown on how their business lines are moving. Bell Potter got all their clients set at 0.20. Lets see if it gets any love. I'll be adding more if market tells me I'm right and decides to move it higher.
SP3 another turn around story I'm liking. I tried get some at 0.145 couple days ago but popped away from me. It's a bit stretched now so not worth in me going into detail I'll wait on a pullback first, but interesting little company.
(20min delay)