short term trading week starting -14th oct

Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 7th Oct 2013 (No. 87)

Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).

Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!



Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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TSN - Electronic transaction payments in India,

14/10/2013

CX Partners earlier this year finalized its acquisition of a 75% stake in the Indian ATM unit of Australia's Transaction Solutions International (TSI). The private equity firm has agreed to pay INR1.2 billion($22.13 million) for TSI India. CX Partners will make the investment in two tranches. The first tranche of INR805 million will be made through the of purchase of existing TSI Shares plus additional purchase of INR125 million worth of new shares. The second INR412 million tranche will be made entirely through the purchase of new shares. The investment, which values TSI India at around $29 million, is being made through CX Partners' $515 million maiden fund, one of the largest India-focused PE vehicles targeting growth opportunities. TSI India has been operational since 2006 and operates more than 1000 ATMS. In March the company signed a nine-year agreement with Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) to deploy and manage an additional 200 ATMs, with the ability to extend that to as many as 400 machines. Industry estimates predict the number of ATMs in India will increase from approximately 95,000 in 2012 to at least 200,000 by 2017.Has a few shares on offer - 1.7 billion, so consolidation down the track is possible. TSI currently has A$12 million cash available to TSI India for expansion. Last quarter it had an income of $2.3mil
Poster: Tobyjack (STT Accuracy: 45.2% - Ranking No.5 )
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(Mcap:$14.2m)

DIG - Digital communications, e-commerce,

14/10/2013

Digital Performance Group. Major companies ie 7-11 comprise customer base of Asian Pacific Digital, the group of companies under review to be backed into Digital Performance Group. Review being conducted by the major holder of DIG, that also happens to be the same guy behind the flawless turnaround of travel.com.au who developed lastminute.com.au that culminated in a bidding war between Wotif.com and Webjet. The process began before this massive tech/online/mobile boom. They won’t let these conditions slip by without taking advantage? Asia Pacific Digital has over 750 employees around the world. Currently 0.005c, Cash $76k.
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49.6% - Ranking No.2 )
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(Mcap:$4.2m)

REF - Telecommunications + online contact lense business,

14/10/2013

Telecommunications + online contact lense business. Asset to liability ratio of over 10 to 1 (in favour of assets). $6.8 million assets including $2.1 million cash only $650k total debt/liabilities 4.7c$3.7 million cap$2.84 million cash$650k debt$8.7 million revenue Cash flow positive this year - due to new revenue from deals recently signed with Telstra and Vodafone, this will be much higher next year with a full 12 months of earnings showing in next annual report, and will be visible in upcoming quarterly$580k net profit from continuing operations. Pretty rare in mobile/tech space... 3/4 cash backed with low PE positive cash flow and trending upwards. Retained earnings increasing, good sign - piggybank filling up EBITDA $1.6 million from their 1800 Reverse service. Recent acquisition on 65% of OzContacts, an online contact lense store, generated $1.2 million in revenue. Australian monopoly on reverse charge call credit for anyone that runs out of prepaid credit on their mobile phones - Telstra and Vodafone signed on, no doubt working on Optus. Even their payphone business is generating healthy revenue
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49.6% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$4.3m)

CNX - Underground Coal Gassification in QLD.,

14/10/2013

There is no reason to believe that this is going to take off any time soon, but I am putting it up for a few reasons. It raised capital a couple of months ago and placed about 60% of the shortfall last week [about 2 million $s worth still hanging over]. The SP has been trading sideways for some weeks @ 1.8-1.9 cents. So my first reason is it seems allow risk entry if you get in around current levels. Next reason is the company has come out with a string of good anns in the last 7 days. Money in the door from a tax rebate and a cornerstone investor [as mentioned above]. Also a useful MOU for a long standing project in Chile. Last reason, LNC [Linc Energy] is presently imploding and likely to list on the SGX. LNC has 16,000 retail holders. Some of them are likely to sell out and CNX is a logical place for them to reinvest if they want exposure to a UCG company. The timing is good for CNX given they have solved their cash problems recently. No debt ... Cash in hand approx 9 Million
Poster: Dazedandconfused (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$19.4m)

CKA - Coal in Indonesia,

11/10/2013

Blumont has just upped their stake in the company to 9% and done a favourable deal with cka to advance to mining COKAL ANNOUNCES BLUMONT FINANCING PROPOSAL Global metallurgical coal group Cokal Ltd (ASX:CKA) confirms it has been in discussion with Blumont Group Ltd (Blumont) about a US$77M funding package designed to fund the equity requirements for the BBM project as well as general corporate requirements. In addition discussions were also close to finalisation on a potential takeover offer of A$124m. ROJECT OVERVIEW The BBM Coal Project (IUP 188.45/149/2013) is situated in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia in the prospective metallurgical Upper Barito Coal Basin, Regency of Murung Raya. The Project covers an area of 15,000 hectares. The Project is adjacent to the BHP Billiton’s, Indomet Coal, Joloi Project in Murung Raya Regency. BBM currently has a JORC Resource of 77 Million tonnes (Mt) in multiple seams comprised of 70Mt Inferred and 7Mt Indicated Resources. Cokal has also been working on converting the 200 to 350Mt additional Exploration Target1in to JORC resources. Cokal is completing definitive studies and obtaining the necessary approvals with the aim of commencing construction in late 2013 which would see first production occur in the first half of 2014
Poster: Voliobene (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$77.2m)

MNZ - Online business (IT),

11/10/2013

MNZ just raised $150k cash @0.6c, proposed to buy Deals Direct which annual turnover is over $60m.Just compared with others: MNW - from 2.2c to 27c in two months, market cap $90mSMA - from 0.7c to 3.1c in one month, market cap $49mMBE - from 2c to 16c in three months, market cap $49mMNZ market cap $3m.As proposed deal is a reverse takeover, probably no cash consideration is required, that is why MNZ only raised a small amount of cash. If they can get a cheap deal, MNZ could rocket very high as only 233m shares are issued. Compared with peers, $50m market cap would be achievable. The 25m shares can be soaked up within one trading day if they get a good deal.
Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$3.8m)

SLT - Base metals in Tanzania,

10/10/2013

Extensive database used to undertake a detailed review of its current portfolio of tenements to rank and prioritise targets within the extensive coal and uranium tenement holding.? Further prospective targets identified by the Company’s technical team for Base Metals with specific focus on Copper are progressing through the application process in Tanzania with Offers to Grant expected in August 2013.? Along with the Tanzanian Base Metals Projects the Company has lodged a number of applications over Significant Base Metals targets in Gabon. "poor liquidity & no premium to 1c raising price but shortfalls went fast "The Shortfall Placement was made to sophisticated and professional investors, including clients of Hartley’s Limited, Blackswan Equities Limited and Bell Potter Securities Limited" and director Gary Seabrooke was instrumental in early days of Riversdale mining. A clear case of rugs being pulled under retailers, I remember webral & I traded this one up to 1.5c before 1 for 100 consolidation, which makes it $1.5! now back to 1c under cash backing
Poster: Treasurehunter© (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$0.8m)

SOC - Gold in Australia,

10/10/2013

40moz Au could be a reality With higher grades encountered 178m @ 2g/t could lift overall grade past Cadia-Ridgeway(60Moz gold equiv.)The 3dip survey is in and it shows that the first 4m oz pipe (Hobbs pipe 1) might just be the smallest pipe.
Poster: Stefan41 (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$32.6m)

XST - Oil/Gas Australia,

10/10/2013

Producer - 100% of 75 million cubic feet of gas per day from 7 separate producing wells in Sacramento basin. Explorer - 50% interest in High Island, offshore Texas; 3800 acres in shallow water of 80m, +17% interest in West Brentwood, California.MD Gary Jeffrey buying on market - now holds 9%.Paul Cartwright buying on market - now holds 6% (probably the Hartley's Oil and Gas analyst by the same name)Director Andrew Childs buying on market - now holds 2.7 million shares. Other acquisitions in negotiation:"The High Island block provides us with near-term, low risk, game-changing prospectively. Xstate has also identified and commenced negotiations on other oil and gas opportunities." Farm-out negotiations in progress for drilling of High Island, expected later this year. Hoping that they've landed a major, which would explain the big breakout of the last 5 trading days. $500k cash, No debt.
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49.6% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$2.7m)

DGX - Construction Australia,

10/10/2013

Biggest volume day in over 5 years yesterday, on a terrible ASX day, and the price went up. Recent rights issue at 3c - MD and CEO Nick Di Latte took up over 33 million shares - spent $1 million on DGX shares. He now owns 54 million shares.2013 DGX generated a net profit of $1.6 million compared to a 2012 net loss of $27.1 million, a 106% jump in net profit. Earnings per share is 1cSince the annual report they have signed another $50 million in contracts, including yesterday's $23 million single contract. They build lots of big box superstores for Woolworths and Wesfarmers ie, OfficeWorks and Dan Murphy's.
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49.6% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$7m)

COM - Cloud-based IT solutions,

10/10/2013

Likely to go much higher as revenues and profits continue to increase and debt continues to be reduced. Also are in the process of selling an asset to substantially reduce debt in one hit
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49.6% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$4.5m)

MWR - Education /IT/Cloud Computing,

10/10/2013

Selling and managing student/school/parent data systems in Australia, New Zealand and the USA. School / Parent / teacher targeted systems for roll marking and SMS and smart phone alerts to minimize truancy & bullying / issue reminders / issue school news / issue emergency notifications etc etc etc. Cloud based / Smart phone based / SMS based company... so it is in the current "ASX favourites" sphere. Pays dividends (though small).... NOW!!!Makes profits..... NOW!!!Strong surge in recent uptake by target market Tiny number of shares on offer - approx 8,500,000.Only catering for about 1000 schools in Aus / NZ..... so with 10,000 schools in Australia... there is plenty of room for growth there. Plus NZ schools.... Plus the chance to open up more in USAUSA patent for some of the MWR tech was issued back in May 2013.... I am waiting and hoping for news that an expansion into that market may happen soon. Non-exec director, Shaun Collopy has a very successful past in building up and selling such companies to the likes of "Silver Lake"... for multi-million dollar sums (have a read of the 2013 annual report for the very tidy summary)From annual report.... "The Company is actively pursuing various opportunities to grow revenues including new product development and alliances with other companies "Cloud based "smartsync" system manages student data. Some of there products also allow for parents and schools to locate a student VIA google maps.
Poster: BigShareshead (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$11.1m)

BTR - Copper & Zinc in Africa,

9/10/2013

Blackthorn Resources Limited (BTR) $40m Mcap $20m cash is an Australian-based resources company with a diverse portfolio of African assets including zinc, gold, copper, nickel and platinum group metals. The company focuses on production at the Perkoa, development at the Mumbwa, and exploration at its tenements in Burkina Faso. Updated Mineral Resource that incorporates recent high-grade drilling results, and is expected to lead to a PFS update in early 2014. Blackthorn (27%)have a JV with Glencore(63%)10% gov Bukina Faso Project update revenue coming early 1st qrt 2014 Expanded Perkoa Project includes silver, lead and zinc Open-cut as well as underground mining. Increased processing plant capacity of approximately 1 Mtpa First commercial export shipment expected Q4 CY2013 .This JV alone is worth $70m alone based on 27% of Project(low end). Glencore may buy out Blackthorn for the remaining ownership.$20m cash and $70m equity in Pekora (possible buyout)MCAP should be around $70m-$90mOVERSOLD
Poster: Stefan41 (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$42.7m)

PIE - Digital WiFi business ,

8/10/2013

Reckon PIE is a no brainer at current levels for the following reasons1. Mkt Cap $2.7m at 4c.2. Cash $1.7m so EV sits at $1m.3. Placed shares at a premium in March April at 6c when stock was trading around 3.5c. 4. Has stated that they are looking at new digital acquisitions and have been on the hunt since Sept last year which would explain how they got a placement done at an 80% premium at the time. Combine the above of tiny market cap, small but enough cash for now and acquisitions coming to complement existing WiFi business and its a good punt imo . Owes people a lot more than current levels which is probably why its so illiquid
Poster: Strauss© (STT Accuracy: 35.5% - Ranking No.9 )
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(Mcap:$2.9m)

CXM - Copper, zinc, IOCG in NSW; Iron in SA,

8/10/2013

CEO is Ben Hammond, former iron ore and coal geologist from BHP. Goulburn Base Metals - within Lachlan Fold Belt, enormous IP and gravity anomaly 65% Centrex, JV with Shandong who will earn 35% by sole funding a $2 million drilling program to commence immediately after government approval, expected shortly. The JV also gives clear funding path to production should an economic discovery be made. Gundaroo IOCG - 281km2 permit near Gundaroo within Lachlan Fold Belt... the Frogmore fault runs directly through it. Eyre Magnetite - JORC of 681 million tonnes magnetite, JV with Wisco who paid Centrex $78 million cash for 60% of the project... implying a value of $59 million for Centrex's share of this project alone. Bungalow Magnetite - JORC of 338 million tonnes magnetite, JV Baotou Iron & Steel to earn up 50% by spending $40 million in exploration. So far Baotou have spent $24 million for a 30% interest. Port Spencer - 100% Centrex... Port Spencer is a planned 20 million tonne per annum deep-water port... initial
$4 million of development costs funded by Wisco to earn 50%.
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49.6% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$42.3m)

CSD - Tin explorer looking to turn producer.,

7/10/2013

Released PFS this week to a welcoming market and has commenced work on DFS. Some more near term price catalysts. Tin hit US$24k overnight, up over 5%JV with SPM could happen any day, they have a mill to process the ore through and will answer a lot of the capital cost issues and should put the company into a good position to actually make the transition to producer.imo tin could be about to do a rare earths run. Lots of issues contributing to a tighten supply and expanding usage.eg tin added to lithium batteries increases there life by 3 fold, lead replacement that is only now really being implemented.
Poster: V8 (STT Accuracy: 20.8% - Ranking No.18 )
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(Mcap:$13.3m)

CTR - Oil/Ga sin Guatamala,

7/10/2013

Aztam 5 is supposedly set to be spudded in the next few weeks, alongside (hopefully) news about a more permanent off-take agreement being made. There is also - reportedly - a possible re-rating occurring in the Guatemala fields by a Texan company, with a recent research report suggesting anywhere up to 6-17c.
Poster: Ricdan1985 (STT Accuracy: 31.2% - Ranking No.12 )
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(Mcap:$16.5m)

MCE - Manufacture products for useMining/Oil/Gas ,

7/10/2013

I think Matrix (MCE) is a turnaround story. The first quarter of FY 13/14 should be a good quarter as the lower Australian dollar will increase margins (this will probably be offset partially by some hedging losses). The lower Australian dollar will hopefully also lead to more contract wins as Matrix should be more competitive. The September Quarter results should be released towards the end of October and I expect them to be a catalyst for an increase in the share price. The removal from the ASX300 on 20 September 2013 has probably forced some ‘institution investors’ to sell out and this has pushed the share price down to what I think is a good entry point.
Poster: RetiredYoung (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$66.2m)

PNL - Coal /Coking Coal in Us,

7/10/2013

Fully diluted market cap of 27 million if potential coal acquisition goes ahead. The opportunity to acquire large holdings in the emerging coal province of the Illinois Basin, home to some of the lowest cost and most profitable coal mines in the US. Close to transport, labour force etc. Neighbours include Alliance (market cap 3 billion) whose most profitable mines exist here. Proven management includes Ian Middlemass and ex Peabody and Alpha executives. Holdings are already extensively drilled and a JORC is expected this quarter. They already know they have the same seam as Alliance running through their property. This is the last land in the area not under the majors control. A meeting is to be held this month on the 16th to vote on approving the acquisition. They also hold a coking coal prospect (14000 hectares) which has been tested as a product for the international market and found to be meet that standard. Tightly held, cashed up
Poster: Hughjas (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$7.5m)

NGY - Shale gas in East Africa, Sumatran gas producer ,

7/10/2013

Current chairman Graeme Robertson holds 43 million+ NGY shares. Grame Robertson was MD of New Hope Corporation (NHC) 1987-2005... NHC is now a $3.25 billion energy company. Current CEO Chris Newport has 25 years oil and gas industry experience, previously worked for the Hess Corporation, Gulf Indonesia, Santos, BHP Petroleum, AGL, and Delhi Petroleum. Gas offtake agreement for $4-$20 million per annum signed, delivery point at NuEnergy's coal bed methane plant gate. First cash flow from sales expected within 3 months, worth up to $8 million per year in revenue to NGY taking into account 40% interest. Very interesting to see the 20 YEARS accumulation of NGY, visible on final chart OBV. Tanzania, East Africa: big shale gas permit in the Selous Basin with large untested structures, expected to be granted within 4 weeks - only one well has ever been drilled in the 50000km2 Selous Basin.Scout drilling has commenced at separate Tanzanian shale target. Malawi, East Africa: 346km2 shale gas EPL - the first ever unconventional gas exploration licence in the country. Talk about early mover advantage! $4.5 million cash. Sp = 3.6c
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49.6% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$11.5m)

SFX - Zircon, Base metals , PGE and Potash,

7/10/2013

Digger and Dealers - Best Emerging Company 2013Dampier Mineral Sands Project Thunderbird - Tier 1 Zircon Project (WA) - "Once in a decade discovery", "Highly Marketable Zircon product" - Drilling ongoing, results imminent. Expecting significant increase to already massive JORC resource. Argo - Highly encouraging complimentary HMS deposit located near Thunderbird. Expecting high grades, 10%+ HMS but smaller. Considerable more unexplored surrounding acreage. Summary - Quality projects, quality management and plenty of upside over next few months given consistent positive news flow and strong technical support. This will be a future ASX200 company, it's just a matter of time.
Poster: Bobsa (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$53.2m)

QHL - Manufacture of Carbon Fibre components,

3/10/2013

They have a carbon fibre manufacturing tech that is heaps faster and with a better finish than current tech, apparently in discussion with major auto manufacturers. Results of current discussions are expected to result in first purchase orders in the 4th quarter. They currently have an order book for joint strike fighter parts, maybe 20 to 30 mil from memory
Poster: V8 (STT Accuracy: 20.8% - Ranking No.18 )
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(Mcap:$73.3m)

WNS - Information Technology,

2/10/2013

World Net Services. Price catalyst will be continued improvement in profitability, looks like customer base is expanding, costs have been reduced and global travel is trending upwards again since GFC. Also change business type to: Online travel solutions. $39k cash .003c Total liabilities $2.3 million, Gross profit for the year $1.25 million, Net profit for the year $740k.
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49.6% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$0.21m)

MBT - Biofuels,

2/10/2013

Owns and operated a 100,000 tpa biodiesel plant. In the process of finalising the transfer of a 250,000 tpa trans-esterification plant Significantly downsized its upstream feedstock business in India Now focussed on divesting the remaining Indian assets and Owns two wind energy turbines of 1.65 MW each in India which sell electricity to a Western Indian utility under a 13 year power purchase agreement. Cash and trade receivables $5.2 million. Market cap $110k. Net profit for the year $10 million / 96 cents per share. Assets $20 million, $31 million debt
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49.6% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$0.6m)

GLY - Gold in Greece, copper-nickel-platinum in Canada,

2/10/2013

apes Gold project in Greece, acquired for $46.5 million in 2011. Gold price at time of acquisition agreement was $1350, similar to now. RESOURCE: Super high grade... super low cost JORC measured and indicated 2.64 million tonnes grading 10g/t gold for 830,000 ounces; also a proved and probable reserve of 1.32 million tonnes grading 15g/t gold for another 630,000 ounces. Very low cash costs of $295 per ounce, Modest capex of $98 million, Quick payback of 14 months, EBIT of $70 million per annum. Bell Potter values Sapes project alone at $152 million. Jason Bontempo, MD of Glory Resources:"Sapes gold project has got huge potential, massive, everyone in the industry knows about it". Based on current surveys of the gold underground he believes Glory can become a $1 billion company... TGlory just need environmental approval to move the project towards production, and massive positive cashflow. This now looks like it could be coming soon:
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49.6% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$29.1m)

Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects


CTR - Oil/Gas in Guatamala ,

7/10/2013

TA-wise and price entry wise, 1.6c seems a safe bet, with a good wall of support.
Poster: Ricdan1985 (STT Accuracy: 31.2% - Ranking No.12 )
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(Mcap:$16.5m)

PNL - Coal /Coking Coal in Us,

7/10/2013

Breaking up from a small pennant. Higher gaps at 27 and 28 and all time high of 30 cents. Currently trading at 23.
Poster: Hughjas (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$7.5m)

SLT - Base metals in Tanzania,

10/10/2013

TA wise, not much expect I think current range should be a solid bottom range. currently waiting for the ticking up signals
Poster: Treasurehunter© (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$0.8m)

SFX - Zircon, Base metals , PGE and Potash,

7/10/2013

Significant bearish pattern resulted in a drop from all time highs of 75c in April to a July low of 24.5c. Since July, it has corrected and moved into a strong yet steady bull trend. After some inevitable profit taking, it hit the bottom of the bull channel Wednesday, before gapping up slightly yesterday to finish at 47c. Bull trend expected to continue and move to c. 62c over coming few weeks, pushing the 75c high by Christmas.
Poster: Bobsa (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$53.2m)

SRZ - Tin in Tasmania and Qld,

4/10/2013

Showing recent signs of life after a double bottom as it starts to break from its 2010 retrace line.10WEMA just crossing and bouncing off 35WEMA. Looking now to break through the 200WEMA at 5.7c. Closed today after a very low vol pip gap up to 5.4c. Look for volume into 800K's to confirm the next green candle. initial target 7.3c
Poster: Pilsner (STT Accuracy: 19.4% - Ranking No.19 )
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(Mcap:$12.1m)

QHL - Manufacture of Carbon Fibre components,

3/10/2013

Chart looks awesome, don’t have a technical name for it but it broke out on volume and has maintained a nice uptrend on increased volume ever since, astonishing really given they have raised some cash in the meantime. A little different for me, it has quite good volume on any given day so will be a good candidate for a chat line fav once the auto PO comes through.
Poster: V8 (STT Accuracy: 20.8% - Ranking No.18 )
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(Mcap:$73.3m)

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Links to Previous Weeks Lists

No.86: Short Term FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 7th Oct) - Click HERE

No.85: Short Term FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 30th Sept) Click HERE

No.84: Short Term FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 23rd Sept) Click HERE

No.83: Short Term FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 16th Sept) Click HERE