short term trading - week starting 16th sept

Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 17th Sep 2012 (No. 33)

Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
Again, I have taken the liberty of adding some info where it was unclear or fixing typos where I came across them. Hope no one minds. I have reduced the list to 10 or so items again. If you would like me to change your item then please let me know and I will update and I will re-issue. Will open for submissions on next week’s list this Friday after market close. All market caps are undiluted and were correct at time of posting (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).

Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!


Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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PEX (Copper in WA) The company recently released some highly promising drill results for their Mallee bull project. Assays are now due (within a week apparently). The sp has hit support and bounced of this today. If the assay results are to mr markets liking, the Mallee bull run could be on again! (Mcap: $34.3m) Click Here for Chart
[Expecting more drill results from Mallee bull ]
Spotted by Adrunis84 (No Position Held)

TTE - Oil/Gas in the US and in Australia. Allen dome Salt Dome in Texas (near MAD) is currently having 2-3 wells recompleted. A new well will also be drilled on the Northern Flank in the next 2 weeks. This same area has produced millions of barrels of oil in the past. *100% owned DR11 in the Perth Basin will have 2 wells drilled in 2-3 weeks and remains on schedule. NWE and AWE have drilled 5 wells in the Perth basin and all wells produced gas or oil or both. *Sodbuster will have a well drilled late September as scheduled. (Mcap: $16.9m)
[Expecting recently drilled well results.]
Spotted by: Mikey26 (Position Held)

AVZ - Vanadium & Tin, Rare Earth Elements and Precious and Base Metals AVZ announced on in December 2011 details of a JORC compliant Fe inferred Resource estimate of 693 million tonnes at 24% from its Ondjou Prospect. In addition the company has released details of the potential Exploration Target size of its prospect of between 2 to 3.4Bt (20 – 30%+ Fe) from this and its other Fe prospects. EPL4440 which is proximal to the Tschudi Cu deposit (43Mtn @ 0.83% Cu, 10.54g/t Ag) and is on the same stratigraphical horizon as the Tsumeb polymetallic and Cu deposit. Historical production at Tsumeb was significant and included 30Mt @10%Pb, 4.3% Cu, 3.5% Zn, 100g/t Ag. Very close ground to SBR and have already discovered a reasonable resource of Vanadium +other minerals. Well advanced in proving up this resource. Stock tightly held and management are not interested in keeping S/H`s updated. News due in next two weeks. Had a spike to .032 recently (Mcap: $2.56m)
[SBR Nearology play]
Spotted by: Bluebottle18 (No Position Held)

ALY -. Alchemy is actively exploring three key areas; the Bryah Basin Copper Project, the Gascoyne Gold Project, and the Murchison Project. ALY has ground on the other side of the fence to SFR Has previously announced some good hits with gold and copper. Has fallen sharply in recent months due to no news and the manner they fail in keeping us informed. Like so many way down from historic highs of previous years. Directors are not into making announcements. If you believe in talking to them by phone they are extremely positive (Mcap: $15.37m)
[SFR Nearology play]
Spotted by: Bluebottle18 (No Position Held)

EIO - Iron ore in Nigeria, Maiden JORC due out at the end of the month for their 100% Agbaja iron ore plateau. Looking at around about 400-420mt over a 15sq km drill zone. The drill area has yet to be completed to due the wet season which could have put the initial amount around 600mt. About 5 or 6 analysts are currently visiting the drill site to put together reports due out in the next couple of weeks. Unlucky with the timing coinciding with a falling iron ore price but hopefully continues to pick up in the lead up to the release. (Mcap: $37m)
[Maiden Jorc expected end of Sept ]
Spotted by: Moe Sizlack (No Position Held)

RNU - Iron Ore Copper Gold in South Australia, Expecting an announcement is imminent for a start to their drill program for both epithermal silver and IOCG targets at Lake Gairdner on the Eyre Peninsula. What many people fail to realize is that their silver in soil geochem has readings higher than IVR's Paris discovery to the southeast. Most of the ground surrounding them at Lake Gairdner is held either by MEP(discovered Prominent Hill) or Rudy Gomez(discovered Carapateena). Both of those deposits are now owned by OZL. Currently trading at cash backing I expect a rapid revaluation of their MC and SP if they achieve some decent intervals of bonanza grade silver. All in all, a gem in the making with very little downside given their cash position (Mcap: $5.17m)
[Expecting start of drill program at Lake Gairdner]
Spotted by: John435 (No Position Held)

MAT -.Copper Nickel in South/Eastern WA. Drilling at Dunsville, assays should start to flow in about a month I think. Possible grant of excellent Thai ground. Well cashed up with assertive and proactive management. The general area of land they have under the control now in the Fraser Ranges. Given many juniors are short of funds one might think that MAT will take advantage to make further astute acquisitions of ground in this ground now prospective for Nickel/Copper and Gold.(Mcap: $36m)
[Upcoming Drill results and cashed up and possibility of acquisitions]
Spotted by: John435 (No Position Held)

CGV -.Oil/Gas in Guatemala, The Company has signed an agreement to acquire an interest in oil & gas blocks with combined 400,000 exploration acres in the highly prospective South Peten Basin of Guatemala (the Projects). 51-101 certified reserves identifying proved plus probable (P1 and P2) reserve estimates of 2.3 MMBBL . The company is currently drilling for a possible resource of 1000+ Barrels of oil per day. The well should hit target depth in approximately 35 days. (Mcap: $5.1m)
[Drilling well targeting 1000+ BOPD]
Spotted by: TimBuckley (Position Held)

ETE -.Oil/Gas, shale in Niobrara in the US, There are four distinct hydrocarbon bearing zones within the Niobrara and additionally potential in the underlying Frontier Sandstone and Mowry Shale. All of these intervals have previously produced oil and gas from wells within Entek’s acreage position. The Entek Appraisal Program is seeking to gain production characteristics from all Niobrara zones. It is important to note that, in each well, each zone only represents a portion of the total Niobrara potential. There have been Issues with latest well only 8 BOPD. This may/should be sorted out soon, so thought I would go for it this week. Drilling in the shale in Niobrara Oil Resource. Mainly appraisal at the moment for later horizontal drilling. Hit a low of 8.5cents this week due to last announcement.(Mcap: $43.4m)
[Sell off on recent poor drilling result overdone given grand and appraisal drilling only]
Spotted by: Trees (No Position Held)

BRW - Breakaway Resources goal is to discover and develop high-quality standalone mineral deposits. The Company’s exploration activities are focussed on our priority Eloise Exploration Project (copper-gold) located within the Cloncurry District of North West Queensland an area that we believe offers the most attractive opportunities for future success Just entered a JV with Sandfire resources SFR will spend 8 mil over 3 years. SFR did a placement for 6% at 2.3 cents. The cash will help BRW come up with initial JORC for one of their tenements. Just sold a tenement to Mithril (MTH:ASX) for 200k has been a whole lot higher not many shares. Been good buying over the last few days thought it would come back and waited but it seems to have soaked up a fair few and is on the rise. Target around 3.5 to 4 cents..(Mcap: $15.3m)
[JV With Sandfire to develop Jorc on Tenement]
Spotted by: Tcisbos (No Position Held)

AVB -.Copper Iron Ore Nickel in Brazil , Waiting on a number of potentially market moving announcements: 1) Vale extension/buy out. Receiving a min of $1m for extension but given that negotiations are still continuing, odds are increasing for a payout in the range of $10m-$40m. (My estimate is $20m+ to manage down expectations of the max). 2) Preliminary economic study which, apart from the numbers, should also outline the path to production to add credibility to the fact that AVB is going be a producer within the next few years. 3) Drilling results from Pedra Branca 4) JORC upgrade which hasn't moved the market in the past but given the market is more receptive to "risk" assets may get a better reaction in the current environment (Mcap: $72m)
[Market Announcements expected , Vale Purchase and Prelim Economic Study]
Spotted by: Amulet ( Position Held)

GCR - Copper explorer, Golden Cross Resources (ASX:GCR) is a mineral explorer with a copper-gold focus. Its major project is the Copper Hill copper-gold deposit at the Molong Project in central NSW. GCR also has many other high quality projects across Australia as well as prospective joint ventures, funded and managed by GCR’s partners. The Copper Hill (Constrained) Resource, (Lewis Mineral Resource Consulting, ASX announcement 13 Dec. 2011) of 153 million tonnes, at a cut-off grade of 0.2% copper and with average grades of 0.32% copper and 0.27g/t gold, contains 493,200 tonnes of copper and 1.33 million ounces of gold within a constrained, optimised open pit. news about their upcoming drill program at Burra some distance north of PEX's Mallee Bull discovery and also their ground surrounding PEX's Malle Bull may ignite further interest if PEX's assays for their massive sulphide find come in high (greater than 3.5% Cu.). (Mcap: $12.2m)
[Nearology to PEX ]
Spotted by: John435 (No Position Held)

RTR -. Copper Gold Explorer, The Paulsens South JV with Venture Minerals Ltd (Rumble earning 70%) consists of three granted exploration licences and four exploration licence applications covering 116 km2 of the Achaean to Proterozoic-aged Wyloo Dome located 150 km northwest of Paraburdoo. ??The project area is located in close proximity to the Paulsens Gold Mine operated by Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) which produced 80,000 ounces of gold in 2011 at an average grade of 7.9 g/t. ?RC drilling program of 15 holes for 1,750m planned in September 2012. Expecting further announcements as to a start of drilling at their Paulsen's South Project which lies southeast along the fault from NST's Paulsen mine. Directors buying recently. (Mcap: $7m)
[Announcements expected from drilling at Paulsens South]
Spotted by: John435 (Position Held)




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Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects

ECQ - (Biotech company) - Bottomed out at 0.5c and in the last week has shot back up from this support level. On the daily there are two resistance levels, 1.4, 1.8 and 2.2. The first was broken on the 13th after probing resistance. The second was broken today on HIGH volume. Once resistance @ 2.2 is passed there is little in the way stopping the sp rising to 3.1c. Most importantly is there is a gap remaining (light blue) between 4.9 and 5.7c. So plenty of targets to hit. Key resistances marked on the chart. I currently hold with a 40% profit. (Mcap: $6.1m) Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Adrunis84 (Position Held)

SBR - SBR has formed a symmetrical triangle/bull flag from the 14th August spike and is now at the apex of the symmetrical triangle. Apparent presence of a bull flag suggests this will move to the upside. Range for the sym triangle is 23c, so that gives a target of 46c (Mcap: $m) Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Adrunis84 (No Position Held)

BRW - Ran hard this week and has retraced to around the 50% mark of that run. Volume has dropped off nicely during the last few days showing that selling into these lower levels is waning. Entry on show of support above Fridays high (Mcap: $15.3m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

QPN - (Oil/Gas In Sumatra) Has been trading sideways in the 0.005-0.006 range for a while. Recently broke up through this range with increased volume. Whilst still early days one to watch. Entry on break to 0.009c. (Mcap: $m)
Spotted by: Freehold (Position Held)

MAR - (Gold Silver Tin) Has been relatively quiet for some time but has recently attracted some buying interest which has caused it to have two mini rallies, the second of which was on increasing volume. Something going on here possible insider activity. (Mcap: $10.5m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)


TTE - (Oil/Gas USA and WA) Has bounced strongly off low at 1.5c and hit 1.9c during the week. A break of 1.9c will break the trend line going back to March this year. Cup and Handle on weekly chart. C&H target is 2.8c. With good news could go much higher. (Mcap: $16.9m)
Spotted by: Mikey26 (Position Held)

MYG - After it's last rise, we have been consolidating in a bull flag and Fridays action saw a higher low and higher high on slightly increased volume. The flag has not broken yet but I see it happening if not next week, at least in the next four weeks. Target 40% to 50% @ 15c (ish) (Mcap: 49.3$m) Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Brad75 (No Position Held)

SVM - (Copper, gold and uranium exploration in QLD. & Coarse flake graphite project in Malawi,) Big Gap up, spike and 5 week 50% retrace on decreasing volume. Support coming in the last 2 days to above the 10 DEMA and close to the break line. Looks set to break higher in next couple of days. More aggressive entry will be on break of 35-36c with + volume or more conservative entry on break to new high with volume. Currently 33c, targets to 50c and approx 64-65c projecting a measured move. (Mcap: $18.76m)
Spotted by: Pilsner (No Position Held)

ARE - (Gold Zinc Copper) - Pretty simple on this one looks like the beginning of an exponential trend up. ie, Trend that draws more and more buyer interest as it ascends increasing the slope of the uptrend exponentially until ultimately it collapses in on itself (Mcap: $21.8m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

TAS - (Oil/Gas Uranium) Looks to be another exponential trend upwards on this one increasing trend slope with increasing volume. Entry on exponential trends is usually on a mini pullback. Tight stops are the order of the day. (Mcap: $40.69m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

PVD - (Oil/Gas Morroco) I think this one has more in the tank currently completed the 2nd leg of a rally and thinking it might have 2 or more legs in it. Last rally had increased volume over the 1st which is a sign of continued and increasing strength. (Mcap: $39.6m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

MOY - Ascending triangle, Chart setup looks great and has been a while in the making cautious trading but volume has been consistently strong. Poised to make a break above 0.029. (Mcap: $115m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

AYN - Rallied about 3 weeks ago and has seen a nice retrace on lower but consistent volume, On Friday we saw the appearance of genuine support for the 1st time. Chart looks set for retry of recent short term high (Mcap: $72.5m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

CEL - Recently broke through the resistance and 7c stock appears to be in uptrend breakout was on strong volume (considering Vol recent history). Should encounter significant resistance in the 0.08c region. However once this is cleared 9c is the next area of resistance. (Mcap: $21.8m)
Spotted by: Timbosivic (No Position Held)

GGX - Stock in uptrend and has recently halted You could argue a loose ascending triangle. Should encounter resistance at 8.5c entry on the break out above 8.5c with volume increase. Possible target of triangle 9 -9.5c (Mcap: $44.6m)
Spotted by: Timbosivic (No Position Held)


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Links to Previous Weeks Lists

No.32: Short Term FA & TA Leads (10th - 14th Sep) - Click HERE

No.31: Short Term FA & TA Leads (3rd -7th Sep) - Click HERE

No.30: Short Term FA & TA Leads (27th - 31st Aug) - Click HERE

No.29: Short Term FA & TA Leads (20 - 24th Aug) - Click HERE

No.28: Short Term FA & TA Leads (13th - 17th Aug) - Click HERE