As the ES futures are trading below the big weekly hedge of 4100 again 4000 is now the largest weekly hedge at midweek. We don't have to go there but keep that in mind. I see you all tanked on our overnight weakness and to add insult we get a little (assumed) safety play in the USD. One thing I will say is not to listen to running commentary while you're trading. Block it out completely. Well, I'm not talking about news. I saw some of the world's most able futures traders (huge position takers) talk direction and sentimental nonsense all day yesterday and I think there is a failure to admit that the market is evolving faster than our brains -- even on an intraday basis. At any rate, if you change your mind enough times a day it all adds up to nothing. Essentially, we have this window between 4100 and 4200 into Friday as the template, but multiple fails at 4100 means we are in a sketchy situation. I will be carefully watching market internals below that level.
Overnight ES futures inventory is fully short and we are pausing here above the point of control from 12 May of 4076 -- that is exactly where the SPX and ES 50 day moving averages come into play. At any rate, I just heard the bunker door slam shut. If we don’t bounce back above 4100, feel free to slip food and tums through the crack in the door.
