The indices closed lower with the Dow (-.80%) now below its 50 day and SPX (-.63%) breaking its 20 day and bouncing from its 30 day moving average. The IXIC (-.88%) settled on its 10 day moving average and R2K (-1.06%) bounced from its 10 to close on its 8 day ema. Both saw a fair bit of intra-session volatility.
Note: Apologies for the lag on the index charts in the previous post.
Markets are also trying to interpret the Federal Reserve's Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey.
Sectors: Energy (-1.93%) was the weakest performer today, followed by industrials (-1.19%), materials (-.99%), technology (-.80%) consumer discretionary (-.70%), healthcare (-.53%), financials (-.19%) and telecom (-.18%). Bucking the downtrend was real estate (+.62%), utilities (+.33%) and consumer staples (+.07%)
Even with oil stable (CLQ8 65.73 or +.02%, ETH), the energy sector is down ahead of the OPEC+ meeting of 22-23 June in Vienna. Dear Leader has made it clear to the Saudis that he wants lower oil prices, and as the administration has been courting his interests, it is no surprise they are in a cooperative mood. While the sector has a medium weighting on the SPX, it would not do the index any good if it dropped hard. As of this note, the Iranian oil minister is now saying that things are not going well in the pre meeting. Many traders are neutral mode and waiting to see what happens in the meeting.
The USD index (94.844 or -.22%) is pulling back after making a YTD high intraday and August gold (GCQ8 1269.30 or -.41%) retraced much of its initial losses. That is the current electronic session price, post settlement.
US Debt
Treasuries notes were bid higher today with the 2-year (yield: -4 bps and 2.54%) getting the most buying interest while the 10-year note yield is down -3 bps at 2.90%.
NYSE Breadth A-D Lines opened around -1315, jumped to around -750 and retraced to close at -1105.
NYSE breadth: 2.49:1 and NASD breadth: -2.47:1
NYSE TICK: Also depressed, running steady below the neutral line until 14:00 and then trending down steadily into the close with a low tick of -1128. TRIN: 1.11
NYSE MOC: heavier than average sell side interest prior to close but only -12M on balance at the bell.
Implied Volatility
VXN8: 14.85, VXQ8: 15.26 and VIX: 14.64 or +14.46%
Derivatives pin for tomorrow's expiration has SPX at 2765, but that has been affected by today's action and the index would have to open higher for that to be influential. On the upside, 2780 is resistance. 2700 is the next best bulwark against downside.
Commentary
Every headline created by the administration today - from immigration issues to North Korean disarmament fictions to considerations of high level talks with the Chinese before 6 July - are shameless acts in damage control. But not just political damage control. The ultimate concern is less about international business interests, peace in Asia or migrant children than it is the US stock market. The equity market is the moat that influences the failure or success of the administration, even if equities mostly represent the interests of less than 10% of the population. While this is just common sense, it bears repeating as we are now living in a world where media reports have an increasing influence on intraday price action. I reckon they watch the tape and release rumors or hold conferences when the indices come under duress due to their constant stream of bs. It would be in line with everything else they do.
(20min delay)