Hi, response below :) Thanks @TheArchitect Wykoff method sounds...

Hi, response below Thanks

@TheArchitect

Wykoff method sounds familiar, I do hear a lot about the guy (deceased/old legend from what I gather). I just haven't had a chance to read up. Need to find out what his original books or works were and learn abit. Another one that comes up a fair bit is W. D . Gann. I managed to snag one of his old books in a second hand book store on trading commodities, but other than that haven't read it yet or had a chance to read his works. I do have a few intro to TA books, but agreed I should start googling as I'm sure it's all out there. The books just collate them together. I have the TA ones by john madgee and someone else, which is a pretty big staple, as well as stan Weinstein, whose book is supposedly meant to be a good know how. TIme to get reading - guess time is the biggest factor. Way too limited :)

Regarding understanding individual candles and their interaction - good points. Far too often there are 'patterns' but I agree it makes sense that low volume, or certain behavior preceding, coinciding, or after some candles should have an explainable reason and material impact on what is about to unfold. It's quite intriguing. So far a lot of books give you A-Z's of the actual patterns but as you said, I didn't knotice many that were combining this with volume and other coinciding indicators to build a bigger/better picture. It certainly makes sense to do so.

I've not done enough research into the mathematical/investment differences between using EMA vs SMA, vs weight moving averages etc. It's interesting how to some, a simple moving avg is their main tool , while others use other variants. Many have different time frames on MA's as well to depict short term, vs medium/long term, and therefore when these two cross over as a signal. I suppose in order to decide what indicators to use i.e. for you MACD, EMA , MA lines and FIb levels, did you have to learn/understand quite abit of the mathematical side of things? Otherwise how did you come to the conclusion as to what indicators in combination worked well - or was there no easy way bar trying different combinations, tripping, and continuing on until you found a combination of indicators that were more consistent in getting the anticipated result?

" Certain Candle formations and MACD together with Volume can be a good indicator for when to sell as well as buy. " agreed - comes in to my response two paragraphs above about knowing when to use things in conjunction with other, which is something I'm quite interested in. It's great seeing what a 'teacup' pattern looks like, but as you mentioned I would be very curious to see how this interacts with other indicators, volume etc and shapes where a subtle difference in one of these could have a whole different implication on the teacup for example.

I am always intrigued by Fibonacci followers - I don't know the indicator well but know it is the fixed %'s and points and have a big mathematical grounding and to many, a conspiracy theory as to why many things can be brought back to (in life) and related to Fibonacci's key numbers or %'s. I will have to read up on it, but I assume it is something which one can only understand mathematically? Or is there some blind faith in just accepting that things follow the law of fib % levels?

Regarding your activity/trading lifestyle, sounds like you have a lot on your plate which is great. Wasn't too long ago that I was in uni, and even now the lifestyle of having so much on is pretty intense, so I can appreciate that you can juggle so many hats. I assume you are relatively young and going through university as an undergrad as opposed to a mature age student? Either way achievements in managing time should be applauded - not sure what business ventures you undertake (I know property development I saw was mentioned elsewhere) but it is certainly better to be active and busy than floundering in a personal/growth capacity :)

I assume given you mentioned you have some stocks you don't actively trade, your targets could be short term i.e. within the week or month, but you also dabble in stocks of high prospectivity that could take months or close to up to the 12 months period that is roundabout the definition of this forum ?

Ok, understood. So basically you gun for the big profit hit at once - kind of a 'go big or go home' attitude. If that works that's great. If you (and it seems you do) consistently can hit those big, once off profits when they arise, then I agree with patience as you have I would rather employ a similar situation. After all if you can minimize frequency, and knock the ball out of the park just one time consistently, it would be great to reduce exposure chasing smaller pips and trades over 100 or so different trades (or batting in this case). $20k-100k profits+ sound great, I take it you've hit the higher end of those before? It would be a dream achievement for me haha. Even $20k if hitting that with STT of < 12 months. Arguably you may have used more than the 5-10k parcels as you mentioned but it still seems like your risk-reward ratio is quite high as you trade to win big.

Do you not worry about exposure given if you are holding a STT hold parcel such as with SRT/IAM, and running a trading parcel alongside it, that there is an increased portfolio risk from having so much in one ticket code?

Great that SRT and IAM has proven so well for you. By $3,500 average profit per trade, is that over the 164 times? If so that is a great record. Although my only question again would be what sort of trading parcel sizes these were. If for example they were $100k positions making $3k cash, which is not chump change, it would make a big different to turning $25k into $3k average profits on average over the 164 times traded. I think it is great anyway achieving such results. I can understand the uproar. It is hard to maintain a sense of humility and credibility whenever talking up about oneself. Personally I ask the questions as I am genuinely interested in what people are putting up, making, and how they are doing it more so from a position of envy. In a good way of course - more looking up towards a guiding mentor and stretching one's mental money radar - as they say, money mind attracts money right (as opposed to negativity and thinking 'poor'. or maybe I've read one too many personal development books).


My question to you would be how you latched onto SRT or IAM in early days to assess a new stock prospect? Sure they turned out very good trades/investments, but in those initial days when charts or fundamentals are not as well developed, do you not have any fundamental criteria or investment thesis in picking up these early opportunities before the public gets wind?

I agree with you re: chasing the forced trade, as a recipe for disaster. For yourself and picking up so many short term trades do you just use a scanning software to look for the technical indicators that fit your STT strategy? It seems all purely technical and no fundamentals considered by yourself on anything you trade in or hold for the short term multi bag?

Agreed, I do need to find a style that suits the timeframe of monitoring for myself. Given your experience however, do you find that if you chose to lengthen your monitoring abilities from say live/actively during the day, to at the end of the day or two (assuming you took up a full time job) and that all of the indicators and knowledge you had accumulated could be just as easily tweaked and successfully applied to making something work on the longer trading timeframe?

Thanks for your XPE explanation. Great to hear about the trade the trades along the way while holding the derisked investment. I guess where the big gap now is how to trade the trades of a stock held for a STT hold. I can only assume this comes down to all you have learned about indicators, trading/chart patterns etc. which you addressed at the start of your post, and once knowing this being able to trade the gyrations in the stock, until the eventual rise up in the longer term (and hence the big money bagger on the long term investment parcel).

Out of curiousity how many years do you think you have been plugging away in the learning /accumulating suitable knowledge, until you were confident and achieving your current stead record of profiteering in the market?

Interesting your thoughts on the small cap/spec end of town. Perhaps I have been involved in those 'inactive' companies where trading patterns and ranges were not as consistent as you mentioned to be traded on a regular basis? As I get my head around some TA reading and the STT knowledge library, and stick my head into a 5 grander portfolio it may become more apparent on what you said. For now my views on volatility and pricing on the small cap/species end has seen it generally in a negative light, as opposed to more consistent in tradeable patterns to the big end of town (from what you've mentioned).

Regarding your comment below:

" Regarding if I have a rule for my trades in terms of Market Cap or general size, yes on a vague sense I prefer stocks that are $8m - $20m market caps but then it depends on the stock, how many shares they have the sector they are in, is that sector hot, what are their peers valued at and can this stock reach similar levels or close to, are there fundamental reasons for this stock to be much higher, so many factors really, how the stock has been trading, how volatile it is, how tight the register etc. how much cash they have, have they done a CR recently? Lots of factors. But the peer analysis is good if it's realistic, you'll read lots of comments of how the MC is too low for this to be at this level, and there should be reasons as to why. Sometimes a stock can be 2c but has an MC of $100m unless it's really good I'll likely stay away, especially if it has 2 billion shares or more. "

What's interesting to me is where one draws the knowledge and experience to be able to weigh up not only the company, but the peers and assess if even they are overpriced or underpriced for their market cap, size, fundamentals etc. It's kind of a chicken or egg comes first scenario, where how does one become familiar with relative 'value' without knowing what value is first. I guess typically you could start with a company relative to peers as being fundamentally cheaper and better value, but in which case it would only tell you relatively speaking how it fares to another company. However, assessing and understand peers as well as the company and fundamentally its worth is where my interest peaks. One obviously knows it's important how tightly held a stock is, how many shares are on issue, cash etc. but I guess it's knowing what is a high or low amount, not just relative to other peers, but as a business as a whole which is intriguing. I guess once one is taught the meaning of 'value' it would make sense. But until then it always seems like fundamentals can be compared relative to peers , but then I feel a lack of assessing value as a whole (i.e. as a standalone business in its own right). Hope that made sense? Sounds like I was going in a convoluted circle and not being able to put my finger on what I wanted to say!

Thanks for your PSC run down. I need to find the original post you posted and subsequent responses but judging by your response I get the general gist of the trading thoughts and analysis that went behind your decision. True you didn't ride to the top of 7.4c but I guess the aim of the game is to sell high like you did (6.4c or whatever it was) and not get the exact high. What you mentioned about engulfing shadows and dropping volume on higher prices is intriguing. Again it comes back to your earlier postings and my responses above in understanding how volume and other indicators in conjunction work with patterns and what they mean. I view TA as a somewhat canvas painting of the market's emotions, decisions and ultimately reflects the fundamentals (in an indirect way as the fundamentalists buy, this would show on a chart). In that sense I can understand the human logic where low volume on higher prices on a chart makes perfect logical sense as an indication of waning buying pressure, or likewise (or maybe a combination of both) an increase in selling pressure. Makes for some interesting thoughts that TA (as some naysayers seem to believe) has some science to it, as it ultimately charts the human behavior/decision making in relation to buying/selling decisions. At least that's how I look at it! :)

" It's good that it's something you want to aspire to, many here on the STT thread have achieved multi-bag gains, so more than double (in reference to your comment) and you'd be surprised how often many double their money on short term trades here consistently. " - that's great! It's good to know it can be done. More so if by people who started off in non-typical finance roles i.e. you don't have to have traded securities at the blackrock equities desk to seek a successful trading or investment lifestyle as a retail holder. Would be great, and am looking forward to hearing and learning from those here who consistently double their money on short term trades. I am sure there is enough room in the market for all serious players here to learn, grow and leverage off each other. At least I think so! Although I understand some prefer to safeguard their trading, strategies or tips/real decisions as they believe they're better off alone or ahead of the herd than running alongside it.

Thanks for the entry tips. I Agree, it's hard not to see something you missed run up and be tempted to buy in to it *cue getting burnt shortly thereafter in the subsequent distribution*


Read the rest of your post on entry signals and using the daily charts to assess versus 60, 30 and 10 minutes for more detailed and less noise ridden entry signals. Makes sense, thanks for that. I can appreciate as you mentioned the need to find a stock like IAM where it suits my trading strategy i.e. the odd login through the day, but mainly being a full time worker sort of style. My only worry is fast moving and volatility in this end of town where you and many play, and where not checking between morning and close of session could mean the different tto a quick pump (get out and run with a lot of profit) prior to a quick dump/sell off, all of which you would miss by the time you come back after close.

Now all I need to do is revisit how the likes of yourself, Glad, TGT, and Forrest as you have mentioned go about devising the case study to invest in a stock like IAM that is just relisted. I assume it is largely based on fundamentals and what they have to offer and viewing it as being worth a lot more than the current price? And I guess that brings me back to another convoluted response of posing the question on how to develop a sense of 'value'. I guess it is truly one of those chicke and egg things until one day it clicks and I assume one just grows a general headsense around relative 'value' and in assessing fundamentally what a company has to offer.

Again I think it's great the lifestyle choice that you have. Ideally I hope to be in a similar situation, but it seems that you may be one of the rare brains to have picked up the right way of assessing and trading the market at such a young age. Hopefully, I will sweep that aside and hard work will make up for that. Unfortunately during my university days while I did check shares I wasn't trading and making big money - I think we were more into 'sneaking' games into our university lectures or inbetween work.... now when time is precious I wish I was more productive back then :)

Anyway, appreciate the response provided. I also have to apologise to all for the long response back. While points resonated I was somewhat lost at times to put my finger on exactly what I was trying to ask or say, more for lack of a better understanding or way of putting it. Hopefully I didn't rabble on about the same things over and over. I think it's great anyway knowing about trading styles, patterns and key thoughts from those who've been there, done that (or doing that still, as in your case). It's always good to hear people's stories, both as something to aspire to and to put some story to the name. But mainly for the aspiration on what is possible.

Now the hardest part: learning what you don't know, that you don't know. The long road to rope learning and understanding all the TA, patterns, and growing a head that can decide on what 'value' is not only to comparative peers, but in its entirety. And I Think that's the magic question (after all, I'm sure you can get overvalued companies, undervalued relative to their peers - and knowing when to spot absolute overvaluation would be interesting. I guess that's where learning abit from the fundamental camp would be a good compliment to technical skills).

Thanks again! And sorry I missed your response on the weekend. It was a good one too - def one I need to copy into my hot copper post workbook for future re-reading :D

EDIT: GOSH that was a long post after seeing it post. Apologies to all's eyes. I must admit when I am tired I ramble more. It's been very late nights and cramming to get ready for my flight out tonight. I'll abstain from responding tomorrow as I've got the red eye flight and 2 hrs of sleep to look forward to tonight before I touch down on the east coast. by then my responses will be 1 thread in its entirety :D