short term trading - week starting 19th august

Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 19th Aug 2013 (No. 79)

Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).

Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!



Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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ORN - Health / Medical,

19/08/2013

OSL recently announced global strategic manufacturing alliance (co-operation and costs sharing agreement) with Eckert & Ziegler, a leader in the manufacture of devices, radiochemicals and radiopharmaceutical precursors used in the treatment of serious diseases and for medical imaging. Also they have recently taken a step towards commercialising its pancreatic cancer treatment medical device OncoSil™ with the initiating of a gap analysis assessment that will define the pathway to a pre Investigation Device Exemption (IDE) meeting with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).OSL is developing OncoSil™ as an implantable device that emits radiation directly into the pancreatic tumour, and the pain conducting nerves surrounding it. The company is seeking to register OncoSil™ as a medical device in all major markets as they have a fraction of the development cost compared to drugs and are faster to register, making for a better return on investment. OncoSil Medical received a notice of initial substantial shareholder from WebInvest as trustee for OLSB Unit Trust, which acquired 12,432,673 shares or a 5.14% stake. WebInvest is run by Otto Buttula, former founder/CEO of IWL which he sold to CBA and walked away with almost $52.5 millionHad $3.5mil cash in the bank as at last quarter
Spotted by: Tobyjack

(Mcap:$14m)

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ORN - Fraser Range WA - nickel-copper,

19/08/2013

Currently in a Halt/Suspension pending outcome of cap raising. Argonaught Capital is assisting ORN raise at least $5 mil through a share placement at 12c. Current sp is 11c.Last week ORN made a deal with Mark Creasy for acquire 70% interest in 2,628 sq km tenement package in Frazer's Range. The deal is similar to the one Creasy did with SIR. Creasy will have approx. 11% of ORN (he owns 20.3% of SIR).With plenty of cash in the bank (after raising), drilling to follow, expect some excitement. The transaction will reposition Orion as one of the dominant players in the emerging northern end of the Fraser Range province, with a combined land-holding of 4,210km2. The belt has delivered the world-class Nova-Bollinger nickel-copper discoveries.
Spotted by: Tobyjack

(Mcap:$14m)

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BWD - Coal in QLD,

19/08/2013

This is the stock Nathan Tinkler tried to takeover using his Mulsanne Resources vehicle. During the quarter the case with Mulsanne was settled and Blackwood received $12 million, allowing exploration activities to continue.3-5 billion tonne JORC exploration target at South Pentland over just 1/3 of tenement area.
Spotted by: Fibonarchery©

(Mcap:$9.3m)

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PTL - Manufacturing and sale of Personal Care/Home products,

19/08/2013

Technically, the PTL chart is a screamer. Once 2.8c breaks a 4c target comes into play, with length of room to move beyond that. I have watched the PTL action for awhile now, IMO she is very very close to a move to 4c ++. She is very tightly held.IMO both the fundamentals and the chart provide a rare opportunity here for a rewarding turnaround story. See the BUL chart for what I am expecting in the coming months for the PTL share price.
Spotted by: Timbosivic©

(Mcap:$42.1m)

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PTL - Manufacturing and sale of Personal Care/Home products,

19/08/2013

Symex Holdings Limited (SYM) engages in manufacturing and sale of oleo products, glycerine and personal care and home products in Australia, New Zealand, Africa, Asia, Europe and Middle East. SYM has two main divisions namely consumer products and specialty chemical products. The big advantage PTL has is the strength of their brand portfolio, with strong brands that have been around for a long time. In FMCG world, brand equity is EVERYTHING. PTL has what can only be described as MUST STOCK brands for WW and Coles, the envy of many other consumer goods companies desperate to be ranged in the grocery duopoly. As such as the commercials continue to be turned around, PTL is likely to undergo a significant and sustained re-rating. Quite simply there is an astounding amount of room for the PTL share price to move in the coming months IMO. IMO both the fundamentals and the chart provide a rare opportunity here for a rewarding turnaround story. See the BUL chart for what I am expecting in the coming months for the PTL share price.
Spotted by: Timbosivic©

(Mcap:$42.1m)

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MOD - Copper gold explorer NZ, Africa,

19/08/2013

hese guys already have a copper discovery in Africa next to discovery metals which is for sale, mooted to raise up to $20mil which coincidently is there MC. Also have a 1.5 mill ounce gold deposit in NZ which they have hardly scratched the surface of, Anyway may be jumping the gun as they have only been at it for two weeks but price has started to move so thought I better get it in, they are going after the source of gold in NZ. Stage 3 drilling program commenced at Sams Creek on 29 July 2013. The aim is to test for extensions below and along strike from the Main Zone deposit. First priority is to test below the limit of drilling in the central core of the deposit with a 550m drill hole which may be extended to test the source of a gigantic magnetic anomaly interpreted below the Main Zone
Spotted by: V8

(Mcap:$21.8m)

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HLX - Copper gold explorer Australia, Chile,

19/08/2013

Have 4 separate drilling programs reporting results in the next 2 weeks and these guys are quite good at finding stuff. Couple of very sweet projects in Chile as well! CANBELEGO JV Helix is drilling two drill holes below the Canbelego Copper Deposit targeting beneath high-grade copper plunge positions the Canbelego Resource. A fixed-loop EM conductor plate supports the depth continuity of high grade sulphide mineralisation below the known resource. Helix is also drill testing an EM conductor associated with strong copper in soil anomalism (up to 0.3% Cu) at the Caballero Prospect. This combined work will take Helix to70% equity in the Canbelego JV. Results are expected in August. RESTDOWN JV The Company has completed four RC holes to follow-up the initial [email protected]/t Au intersected in first-pass drilling at the Boundary Prospect. Alteration consistent with that in the initial hole has been encountered in this drilling. Results are due in August. KOREE PROJECT (100% HLX)The Company has completed three RC holes into the Amity Reward South Prospect to follow-up a strong gold in soil anomaly associated with several +10g/t Au (Max 39g/t Au) surface rock chips. Results are expected in August.
Spotted by: V8

(Mcap:$7m)

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AXE - Diamonds in Western Australia,

19/08/2013

On the 1st of August Meteoric announced the discovery of kimberlitic rocks at their project located in the West Arunta region of the Gibson Dessert in WA. The potential area of the kimberlitic field is 400sq klms. Indicator minerals for diamonds have also been identified. Drilling of the kimberlite target is scheduled to resume in September. I expect an substantial increase in the level of interest in MEI's shares in the lead up to this event. The company currently has 85.1m ordinary shares and 27.5m partly paid shares on issue so the market capitalisation is $3.8m undiluted at 4.5 cents ($5.1m diluted for partly paid shares). With $434K in cash as of June 30 there is always the risk of a capital raising however the purchase by a director of 397K shares at an average price of more than 5.3 cents per share between the 2nd and the 7th August gives me confidence that there will be a decent trade in MEI in the lead up to drilling in September.
Spotted by: Aksier©

(Mcap:$13.6m)

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AXE - Graphite, Eyre Penninsula, South Australia
,

16/08/2013

During July and August the company has been able to consistently produce ultra-pure crystalline graphite at grades in excess of 99.0% C and up to 99.4% C. These grades are expected to be improved after a light acid wash towards 99.9% C. Graphite with a high level of purity grading from 99.0% C upwards with a flake size in the range 5 micron to -100 mesh, commands a significant price premium of $2,500 to $5,000 per tonne versus typical flake graphite. Archer’s average size sits well within this range at 35 micron. Based on my preliminary NPV analysis at the parameters which I have stated above, this project has an NPV of close to $100m versus the current market capitalisation of $14.0m @ 17.0 cents. An even more stark comparison can be seen when comparing the potential of this company to the current EV, which sits at only $5.4m. With a current cash balance of $8.6m the company has the resources to progress the project through to the feasibility stage over 2013/2014, so there is no capital raising on the horizon. And to add to this, you get all of Archer’s other assets thrown in for free. With the results achieved by management to date an investment here look compelling to me.
Spotted by: Aksier©

(Mcap:$13.6m)

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MMS - Salary Packaging business,

13/08/2013

McMillan Shakespeare is a salary packaging business and has seen a massive drop in its share price on the shock news by the Rudd government decision to disallow the private use of vehicles under salary packaging thus impacting 1000s of workers , and the MMS business . The lib govt is $1.16 odds to win the election and scrap this decision , MMS dropped from $16 to $7 and is recovering strongly . A Lib/NP win should see MMS bounce strongly post election, but as ads on tv accelerate about the salary packaging news the MMS recovery is likely to occur pre election and over the next 2 weeks
Spotted by: Romatique

(Mcap:$863m)

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HNR - Copper Gold in Australia,

13/08/2013

Cash $1m plus $4m due from project sale. Drilling historical high grade copper gold project Initial results from first 2 holes have been very promising and validate historical results "Highlights:? High grade copper-gold assays returned from first two holes at Central Orebody, Pahtohavare include: 10m @ 3.62% Cu, 2.7g/t Au, 1.79g/t Ag from 60m (PARC13002)? Inc. 4m @ 5.14% Cu, 5.54g/t Au, 1.77g/t Ag from 65m (PARC 13002)o 14m @ 1.47% Cu, 0.6g/t Au, 0.9g/t Ag from 70m (PARC13002B)? Assays highlight that altered rocks without visible oxide Cu mineralisation can be mineralise do A review of historical and modern drilling where altered rocks have been intercepted but not assayed may identify additional Cu-Au" Chart shows the stock is basing and setting itself up for a trend reversal breakout
Spotted by: Strauss©

(Mcap:$7.8m)

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RUM - Potash and phosphate in Northern Territory,

12/08/2013

Huge deposits on and around the Central Australian rail line. Rum has taken 70 percent of CEN and will soon complete their acquisition. Weary CEN holders are keeping the SP slightly depressed which has provided a buying opportunity. This is a well managed growth company setting itself up very well. It may be a future takeover target for BHP or similar. Exploration is continuing across all tenements including a JV with Reward Minerals which has a lot of upside. They are financially sound with plenty in the tank to continue exploration and finish the acquisition. News of getting to the required ninety percent will see the share price recover. Stale longs from the CEN takeover is the short term risk but the next one to three months should see strong returns. DYOR, starting with the recent quarterly.
Spotted by: J8

(Mcap:$28.9m)

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RNS - Gold in Cambodia
Gold in WA,

12/08/2013

JV at Radio Hill with SXG)$4 million cash JORC Indicated and Inferred Resource of 15.6Mt @ 2.4g/t for 1.2 million ounces of gold at the Okvau Deposit. The Indicated component of resource estimate is from surface to less than 300 metres - open pittable. The deposit remains open with significant potential to define additional ounces. Next round of drilling starts in 8 weeks. Buyers building, sellers exhausted.
Spotted by: Fibonarchery©

(Mcap:$11.1m)

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RMX - Gold in the Phillipines.,

12/08/2013

Targeting High Grade Gold in the Philippines. Red Mountain Mining has commenced Stage 1 drilling to test high-grade epithermal gold targets on it's Lobo prospect in the Philippines. The initial target to be tested will be at Japanese Tunnel where the first drill hole will test immediately under the high-grade surface trenching results of 5m @ 10.43g/t Au.408,000 ounce JORC compliant resource already proved up. Management have stated first results due from third week of August. 470 Million shares on issue, $3 Million cash following recent Capital Raising.
Spotted by: kellbys

(Mcap:$0.7m)

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QTM - Water heater and solar business, Australia,

12/08/2013

Big revenues - receipts from customers in last quarter alone exceeded entire market cap - just need to get costs down or increase prices and big profits will appear. $1.5 million cash
Spotted by: Fibonarchery©

(Mcap:$8.1m)

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PPX - Paper supplier internationally ,

12/08/2013

PPX has now been in restructure for a new board just on 12 months and is due in the next fortnight to report poor earnings in a year it has looked to retrench almost 25% of its work force and cut or close businesses in countries it sees as beyond repair Revenues should fall arguably another 10-15% , and the loss be massive , what I am looking for however is a return to something near profit in the next 12 months and some confident commentary on the future not to worry , so much on the past which is terrible losses under poor management from the past ....all gone ! This years loss will be smashed with the retrenchment costs hurting the short term balance sheet, however the company predicted that 2014/15 if the new boards plan works will be the year they hope to get back in to profit Revenues are massive , probably still in the reduced capacity to somewhere near $ 3,000 million ( 3 billion revenues ) across around 20 countries If the commentary is as I hope , and some recent buying suggests might be the case ( about 1.5% changed ands in one day last week ) then the current but ufA t is a bargain Happy to take a punt on this one at this level looking for a bounce over the next week or 2 , and hoping for a bad result but no where near everyone is tipping This stock was once in the asx top 50 companies , and the man in charge now has a very good track record in this space , hopefully will get me another 25% winner to get in to the Top echelon of Freeholds group , over 40% strike rate I disclose I hold PPX and PXUPA shares and intend buying more in the week or so before the annual result is due as a punt
Spotted by: Firsova

(Mcap:$35.9m)

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MMC - Copper in PNG,

12/08/2013

MMC is focused on the Yandera Project, which covers some 1800km2 in PNG, and is rated as the largest undeveloped copper-gold-molybdenum porphyry systems in the south-west pacific. Resource estimates were compiled by BHP in the 1970's but pre-date the JORC Code and were not publicly reported. MMC's updated JORC based on .25% Cu cut-off: Measured - 248Mt @ 0.43% copper Indicated - 114Mt @ 0.42% copper Inferred - 218Mt @ 0.37% copper Also Measured & Indicated 199Mt of Gold at 0.17 g/t for 1.1M ounces and 532Mt of Measured & Indicated Molybdenum at 0.01% for an estimated 140M lb. Rhenium credits have not been calculated but are likely to add significant value to the project (rhenium has 10-bagged over the last 5 years from $35 to $350/oz).MMC is the only microcap stock I can find with significant rhenium interests relative to its market cap. Stock has formed a nice base at 2c and buyers have started building and sellers have gradually lost patience and sold into 2.1-2.2c
Spotted by: Fibonarchery©

(Mcap:$26.2m)

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CNO - Copper/Zinc explorer, Udu mine,

12/08/2013

I reckon CNO is due for a bit of a run this month SP is V oversold on low volume...(it has dropped 50 percent just in the last 2 weeks on next to none)has developed a large spread as sellers have just about run out....very thin on sell side news due soon’ish on larger drill rig targeting that 60 percent zinc hit that bogged the smaller rig currently using 3DIP, VTEM and DHEM to zero in on targets for ongoing drilling.MC only 2 mil with inferred Resource of 4.5 million tonnes at 1.2% Cu, 3.9% Zn, 29g/t Ag & 0.3g/t Interest slowly returning to this oversold sector with copper price breaking out of its downtrend ..possibly?
Spotted by: Knowbs

(Mcap:$1.5m)

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BTR - Zinc mining (Burkino Faso) and copper exploration (Zambia),

12/08/2013

Although yesterdays results of an intersection of 243m grading 5% Cu were from infill drilling, the significance of how such a result can effect the overall grade of the deposit is , in my opinion, yet to be appreciated by the market. The Kitumba project is shaping up to be a world class orebody. With results from additional holes due, including two holes nearby to KITT_DD027 where the massive intercept was reported from, I expect plenty of interest in the stock over coming weeks. Provided the support at 42 cents holds and future results meet expectations, I expect much higher prices in the near future.
Spotted by: Aksier©

(Mcap:$77.2m)

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CYS - Copper in Zambia ,

9/08/2013

Copper next to BTR in Zambia as well as next to SFR in Doolgunna WA Has copper projects adjacent to BTRs in Zambia. Also has some Copper projects in Doolgunna WA A good nearology punt to BTR maybe, Cash $2m
Spotted by: Strauss©

(Mcap:$6.3m)

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AUQ - Zinc-copper gold in Saudi Arabia, Oman,

9/08/2013

Copper-gold in Oman (being divested to fund Saudi project)Completion of Khnaiguiyah Zinc/Copper Project (KMC) Definitive Feasibility Study announced on 30 April 2013DFS technically and financially robust with a mine life of 13 years at 2Mtpa throughput Production targeted to commencing in Q3, 2016 and may meet forecasted high zinc price cycle Maiden JORC Ore Reserves for Khnaiguiyah announced on 18 April 2013:Proven Ore Reserves of 17.7 Mt at 3.4% Zinc and 0.29% Copper Probable Ore Reserves 8.4 Mt at 3.1% Zn and 0.13% Copper Anticipating news of Oman project sale - could fetch up to $9 million (as much as current market cap)$4.6 million cash Drawn out sell down finally looks done after a big volume day today - probably most of it pre-arranged. Only sellers left now are at 10c+. Big fall from 51c, OBV has remained remarkably strong
Spotted by: Fibonarchery©

(Mcap:$14m)

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SHE - Uranium and Vanadium in South Korea,

8/08/2013

Stone Henge Metals is due to report its maiden vanadium resource as well as upgrading its uranium resource this quarter (currently at 65mlbs). Results from a scoping study into the development of a mine are due out in Q4. The resource should be capable of supporting an operation for at least 20 years. Given the potential of the project to supply 25% of South Korea's annual uranium requirement there is likely to be strong support from the government as well as the nuclear industry (23 operating reactors, 10 under construction). 100% of the country's vanadium requirement is currently imported so the potential production of vanadium credits is also a big positive for the economics of Daejon Project. In fact, based on projected prices of vanadium this importance of this mineral to the project is likely to increase in coming years. An initial review into the economics has pointed to opex cost of $14/lb, assuming a 70% extraction of vanadium as a credit. This cost is very low by industry standards and very important for the feasibility of the project due to the current depressed prices of uranium.
Spotted by: Aksier©

(Mcap:$10.2m)

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LNG - Gas in Australia and US,

8/08/2013

Recent agreement with Stonepeak and development of US asset, substantially change the profile of the company. Stonepeak will provide the equity of $660m, remaining will be debt financed by LNG. Importantly, Stonepeak will pay to the Company a one-off success fee on the MLNG Project achieving financial close, calculated on 3% of the total MLNG Project capital cost (such fee is estimated at US$66 million); That $66m is more than current market cap of LNG. Today's sell due to placement @20c,coming to the market.
Spotted by: Accaeric

(Mcap:$52.2m)

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Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects
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CNO - Copper in Fiji,

19/08/2013

Bouncing off all time lows and MACD crossing at close on Friday around the 6,3 Price Range. Some strength appearpng over the last few days. Ealry show of Support
Spotted by: RainMakerFaker

(Mcap:$1.5m)

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PTR - Emission-free, renewable geothermal energy.,

19/08/2013

Petratherm Ltd (PTR) is involved in exploration and development of commercially-sustainable, emission-free, renewable geothermal energy. PTR operates projects in Australia, Spain and China.EOD ascending triangle with 2.8c resistance has formed Also a nice pennant on the daily5c ST target Volume significantly increase of late Grant in June a nice smoke signal this little woofer may just be around for awhile yet. Right sector.
Spotted by: Timbosivic©

(Mcap:$5m)

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AMX - Gold in Burkina Faso, West Africa,

19/08/2013

Amx has shown some indecision in the sell off around 18 cent mark and began to flatten in chart forming a bottom . A couple of times has shown volume nearing this stage as value is being sort by the market .The trix has crossed signal line around this volume and has begun its up ward curve signalling the bottom. Is now crossing the bias line on a five five basis with confirmation of a turn in market sentiment by the 15/9 trix beginning an upward curve also. The ten day moving average of price is right on the money and being confirmed by stronger green candles that the price may have reached value where sentiment will change in the market. Looking for a small cup and handle pattern to form here with first target around that 18 cent mark with a higher target of 24 cents possible short term.Upward trend in price still occurring and recent high volume days have not been sold into .Recent high volume days have been in the low of the cup and top of handle in a continuing pattern. Short term ema has crossed and spiked when caught up with price.
Spotted by: Valen1828

(Mcap:$37.2m)

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BWD - Coal in QLD,

19/08/2013

Technically is rising out of a base at 4c- Selldown on very low volume from 37c looks complete- Price action has poked its head above 34 day weighted moving average - circled in red pen along with previous examples and following price movement- Controlled rise out of oversold area highlighted, with plenty of scope before it starts looking oversold
Spotted by: Fibonarchery©

(Mcap:$9.3m)

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ADJ - Online Advertising ,

14/08/2013

Break of 4.8c EOD resistance imminent Volume increasing Higher highs/higher lows Growing sector which has seen a number of recent runners including MBE and MKB
Spotted by: Timbosivic©

(Mcap:$40.8m)

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DVA - Trustee, Super Fund Admin,

13/08/2013

DVA is a superannuation business in the trustee, funds management and administration arena . The takeover of Trust company by EQT at 40 times earnings has highlighted the funds management sector opportunity .On a TA basis , DVA has just broken a 200 day moving average down trend for the first time in 3 years , a trend that saw the stock fall 20c to now not only breaking the MA but holding it now on dried up volumes for the last few weeks .
Spotted by: Romatique

(Mcap:$6.3m)

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TPT - Oil/Gas in Africa,

12/08/2013

Look at the chart what did we see Sept 2010 to Feb 2011 and then to Jan 2012?We saw the stock run from Sept 2010 up to around Feb 2011Why? Because the company was acquiring new projects in Morocco and the North West Shelf with big targets big expectations big excitement From Feb 2011 to June 2011 we saw the stock fall and bottom around 20cWhy? Reality set in excitement faded expectations fell, the stock needed to form a base and consolidate itself for what lay ahead From July 2011 to Jan 2012 we saw the stock run from 20c to 80c peak and while the moves to 80c were spikes reached in September and November the stock still moved up to 70c during December and Jan 2012This was the irrational exuberance phase the mania phase the blow off top driven by very high expectations of a farmout for both Morocco and North West Shelf Australia People fail to understand its not fundamentals that drive stock prices but sentiment driven by fear and greed which are influenced by technical’s and fundamentals (See chart in link)
Spotted by: Strauss©

(Mcap:$33.3m)

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SHE - Uranium and Vanadium in South Korea,

8/08/2013

From the chart below you can see that the price broke above resistance at 2.3/2.4 cents yesterday. Conformation of the move today gives an initial target of 3.4 cents.
Spotted by: Aksier©

(Mcap:$10.2m)

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Links to Previous Weeks Lists

No.78: Short Term FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 12th Aug) Click HERE

No.77: Short Term FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 5th Aug) Click HERE

No.76: Short Term FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 29thJuly) Click HERE

No.75: Short Term FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 22nd July) Click HERE