On Monday SPX closed 4224.79 or +58.34 points and 1.40% higher on a completely green intraday sector profile and we saw moderately positive NYSE internals that improved throughout the session. The index is now above its trendline and 50-day average again.
The ES profile for Monday represents short covering on strong NYSE and SPX A-D lines, breadth and tick. The single prints from the open at 4173.50 that created the original stem up into and over the 4200 area is evidence of classical run to cover for those who were expecting lower prices on the open. The problem with that information is that it is incomplete, like most things traders write down. If you're trading outside the day timeframe, the daily profile is a contextual thing. For instance, short covering during a breakout is different meaning than covering off a lower low within a bracket. I captured the lunchtime ES profile view so you can see what I mean before they do the rest, but they didn't do too much else, so the form is still in place. Once the shorts have been taken out for the day, they feel so beat up they just go flat and let it cruise sideways. So now we'll be fixated on the VIX and VX futures overnight and tomorrow to see what this means into the week.
Aside from the short covering and decent market-wide breadth, we did have little excess on the intraday ES high of 4215.75 at SPX cash close. We got those extra few points after the cash close but before rth settle. So, we do have some excess now and it is a more complete auction. So now we wait for acceptance here above 4200. The single print stem is the vulnerable area now and will be regardless of how we go tomorrow.
For sure, @gypaetus, it was one of the most unusual divergences I've seen. It is starting to become kind of unnatural. Games. Happy to know someone who is keeping track of such things.
PS: part of that earlier post was done in Asian session and that led to me leaving it in as I wrote that while half awake. But it still applies that ES futures nighttime (your daytime) action should be seen in the context of its lower volume.
Hi @Malaga. Sometimes they need the tough talk to get stuff in their willfully ignorant heads. If they didn't appreciate your professional advice, it's unfortunate that nature will deal with things eventually.
Hi @golden6, hope your jungle work is going well. I was out mowing all weekend, trying to beat the edge of the incoming tropical storm that never did create any moisture in my area. Thanks for that cricket analogy, it is downright frameable, I tell you.
Hi @Batman's daughter...why must you always be so cheeky? I am trying lol
