short term trading - week starting: 24th sept

Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 24th Sep 2012 (No. 34)

Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
Again, I have taken the liberty of adding some info where it was unclear or fixing typos where I came across them. Hope no one minds. I have reduced the list to 10 or so items again. If you would like me to change your item then please let me know and I will update and I will re-issue. Will open for submissions on next week’s list this Friday after market close. All market caps are undiluted and were correct at time of posting (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).

Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!


Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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CTR Oil/Gas in Guatemala, Asset purchased when previous owner divested it to pursue other project in Columbia. Has all gear to complete the drill on site, has oil treatment and storage equipment, airstrip, camp, drill rig and service rig. Pretty good deal. Drilling ahead in "Atzam #4" oil well in Guatemala... Oil drill to 4500ft depth. Spudded late June 2012, at 1665 ft depth 11th September 2012 (had a minor delay)..and a second well if first goes OK. Oil/gas encountered already... update as of 11th September said "Encouraging oil and gas shows were encountered in secondary reservoir objectives between 1,000-1,200ft". "The Guatemalan Blocks on which Atzam #4 is located have TSX certified 51-101 certified reserves identifying proved plus probable (P1 and P2) reserve estimates of 2.3 MMBBL. Has 2.59 million in cash as of June 30 (Mcap: $6.46m)
[Well Approaching Target Depth]
Spotted by: BigSharesHead (Position Held)

GMXNickel In PNG, GMX have a 20 million dollar JV with Vale across 7 Owen Stanley tenements where Vale can earn 51%.These Owen Stanley tenements are porphyry copper/gold prospects. Company announcement on Thursday had some great rock chip sample results including 0.4m @ 18.5% Ni in a rock chip grab sample,0.25m @ 10% Ni,1m @ 5.74% Ni and 1m @ 4.26% Ni in continuous rock chip samples. Company has a great cash position of 5 million with a relatively small share register of approx 110 million shares. This gives us at current price of 6.2cps a tiny EV of 2 million. A word of caution though there has been a seller at current levels but with Fridays large volume day it must be almost finished. I know only rock chip samples but these minnow spec exploration companies have to start somewhere. The current markets appetite for the spec sector could see this stock run higher with trenching results to be released in the near term (Mcap: $6.6m)
[Trenching results release soon.]
Spotted by: Andiver1964 (Position Held)

IDC Gold in PNG, PFS due out on Monday. Gold mine at Mount Kare, which is very close to the Pogera mine - one of the worlds biggest. Management have run a strategy of getting the locals on side and this has worked. Been mentioned heavily on gold stock media in the past 2 weeks. CEO Steve Prominitz calls the PFS a 'catalyst for a re-rate.' (Mcap: $103m)
[Pre Feasibility Study due on Monday 2th Sept]
Spotted by: TEX3 (Position Held)

LIN Gold in the Philippines, Focus on Sabang New Discovery Zone and Layab Prospect.
Aim to announce maiden JORC resource 2012. Objective to advance projects to mining studies within 24 months. Expanding drilling programme for 2012. 40,000 meters of RC drilling over the next 4-6 months. Continuous news flow expected from drilling results. Due results for phase two drilling in the Philippines . Gold/ Copper .Oversold, Top management (Mcap: $27m)
[Expecting Phase 2 drill results]
Spotted by: J8 (No Position Held)

TAP Oil/Gas, Diversified portfolio of oil and gas assets across some of the world’s most prolific oil and gas provinces. Revitalised company now primed for growth Strong commercial focus and active portfolio management – proven ability to deliver results Strong cash position and debt financing discussions well advanced for Manora development. Accra ( Ghana ) farm out due . 3 bbl target . Thailand project going ahead full steam. Company has large cash reserves . (Mcap: $185m)
[Farm out announcement due]
Spotted by: J8 (No Position Held)

ICNOil/Gas in Australia, They should be at target depth any second now of their 40/ 60 Halifax 1 well with Beach energy in the cooper basin. Beach were initially stalling this drill to try and bleed Icon as they have little in the way of cash but in a rush to increase their booked reserves and secure contracts they could wait no longer. Halifax is only 12km from Beach's 100% owned successful Encounter well. Estimated gas in place is 300 TCF which at $5 per 1000 cubic feet is still worth 100's of billions to Icon (just to give you an idea of potential here). Note that this is shale gas and some core samples (photo in announcements) were sent off for analysis about 5 days ago (Mcap: $110m)
[Approaching target depth for well Halifax1]
Spotted by: Strongy1986 (No Position Held)

ORDGold in NT Australia, Bauxite in Laos, 100% owned Suplejack gold project located in the Tanami Goldfields, Northern Territory. This stock has been smashed of recent times but in my opinion way oversold. They are expecting results of their Supple Jack gold tenement in NT in early October. Supple Jack has already 55,000 ounces and is 30 km from Tanami gold (tam) tenements which has gold in place of 3 million ounces. Ord is short on cash but an upgrade to a commercial quantity of gold will see a significant boost in sp (Mcap: $8.53m)
[Expecting drill results from Suplejack gold project]
Spotted by: Strongy1986 (No Position Held)

AQO Ambassador Oil & Gas Ltd has portfolio of oil and gas exploration targets in the South Australian sector of the Cooper/Eromanga basin containing a mix of low to medium risk conventional oil and gas and unconventional coal and shale gas targets. A bit of a punt on this one by me. Another cooper basin shake play which has estimated 20tcf in place. Released a investor presentation last week stating they were in talks with other parties. I'm looking for this announcement to be followed up with a joint venture announcement in the next few weeks. The beauty of this stock is it only has 130 million shares on register (went up Thursday last week 35% on just a couple of buys). A good announcement will see the list of 7 sellers disappear and then it's name your price. As with icon above their tenements could be worth billions (Mcap: $19.18m)
[Expecting response from Presentation published to Last week]
Spotted by: Strongy1986 (No Position Held)

BNR Gold in WA, 100% owner of the Lamboo (formerly Nicolson’s) and Golden Crown Gold Projects located near Halls Creek in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. The projects have a combined open pit and underground Mineral Resource of 1.84 million tonnes at 4.9g/t Au (for a total of 290,000 ounces) and a 120,000 tpa processing facility currently under care and maintenance. Lamboo is a small open pits and underground mine grades around 5-6gt for 250koz plan for $25m, 200ktpa, 20-30koz pa mgt own ~10% final stages DFS maybe $900-1m in cash, so CR, probably as part of financing is due. DFS and financing was expected in Sept, probably delayed some technically; recent spike with small retrace expect it trades higher into DFS and financing (Mcap: $4.49m)
[Expecting a Definitive Feasibility Study]
Spotted by: Crackpot (No Position Held)

AGE Uranium in NT, Exploring for high grade unconformity style Uranium deposits in the ARUP, N.T Australia. Camp Creek project. Alligator Rivers province, NT small, good grade hard rock uranium deposit, 310ppm 2012 exploration season started June testing deposits extensions and new targets along trend $4m cash after $2.5m spend this qtr on exploration program update is due (Mcap: $17.9m)
[Exploration update is due]
Spotted by: Crackpot (No Position Held)

PEX (Copper in WA) The company recently released some highly promising drill results for their Mallee bull project. Assays are now due (within a week apparently). The sp has hit support and bounced of this today. If the assay results are to mr markets liking, the Mallee bull run could be on again! (Mcap: $34.3m) Click Here for Chart
[Expecting more drill results from Mallee bull ]
Spotted by Adrunis84 (No Position Held)

TTE - Oil/Gas in the US and in Australia. Allen dome Salt Dome in Texas (near MAD) is currently having 2-3 wells recompleted. A new well will also be drilled on the Northern Flank in the next 2 weeks. This same area has produced millions of barrels of oil in the past. *100% owned DR11 in the Perth Basin will have 2 wells drilled in 2-3 weeks and remains on schedule. NWE and AWE have drilled 5 wells in the Perth basin and all wells produced gas or oil or both. *Sodbuster will have a well drilled late September as scheduled. (Mcap: $16.9m)
[Expecting recently drilled well results.]
Spotted by: Mikey26 (Position Held)

AVZ - Vanadium & Tin, Rare Earth Elements and Precious and Base Metals AVZ announced on in December 2011 details of a JORC compliant Fe inferred Resource estimate of 693 million tonnes at 24% from its Ondjou Prospect. In addition the company has released details of the potential Exploration Target size of its prospect of between 2 to 3.4Bt (20 – 30%+ Fe) from this and its other Fe prospects. EPL4440 which is proximal to the Tschudi Cu deposit (43Mtn @ 0.83% Cu, 10.54g/t Ag) and is on the same stratigraphical horizon as the Tsumeb polymetallic and Cu deposit. Historical production at Tsumeb was significant and included 30Mt @10%Pb, 4.3% Cu, 3.5% Zn, 100g/t Ag. Very close ground to SBR and have already discovered a reasonable resource of Vanadium +other minerals. Well advanced in proving up this resource. Stock tightly held and management are not interested in keeping S/H`s updated. News due in next two weeks. Had a spike to .032 recently (Mcap: $2.56m)
[SBR Nearology play]
Spotted by: Bluebottle18 (No Position Held)

ALY -. Alchemy is actively exploring three key areas; the Bryah Basin Copper Project, the Gascoyne Gold Project, and the Murchison Project. ALY has ground on the other side of the fence to SFR Has previously announced some good hits with gold and copper. Has fallen sharply in recent months due to no news and the manner they fail in keeping us informed. Like so many way down from historic highs of previous years. Directors are not into making announcements. If you believe in talking to them by phone they are extremely positive (Mcap: $15.37m)
[SFR Nearology play]
Spotted by: Bluebottle18 (No Position Held)

EIO - Iron ore in Nigeria, Maiden JORC due out at the end of the month for their 100% Agbaja iron ore plateau. Looking at around about 400-420mt over a 15sq km drill zone. The drill area has yet to be completed to due the wet season which could have put the initial amount around 600mt. About 5 or 6 analysts are currently visiting the drill site to put together reports due out in the next couple of weeks. Unlucky with the timing coinciding with a falling iron ore price but hopefully continues to pick up in the lead up to the release. (Mcap: $37m)
[Maiden Jorc expected end of Sept ]
Spotted by: Moe Sizlack (No Position Held)

CTR -.Oil/Gas in Guatemala, The Company has signed an agreement to acquire an interest in oil & gas blocks with combined 400,000 exploration acres in the highly prospective South Peten Basin of Guatemala (the Projects). 51-101 certified reserves identifying proved plus probable (P1 and P2) reserve estimates of 2.3 MMBBL . The company is currently drilling for a possible resource of 1000+ Barrels of oil per day. The well should hit target depth in approximately 35 days. (Mcap: $6.1m)
[Drilling well targeting 1000+ BOPD]
Spotted by: TimBuckley (Position Held)


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Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects

ARE (Copper in Zambia) Stock has rallied Twice over the last couple of weeks. Has retraced and found some support late last week. Volume light on the retrace. Price creeping up towards the .085 level (previous white candle). .I have a 11 cent target (measured move) (Mcap: $20.27m)
Spotted by: Martis (Position Held)

EIO Six moth retrace from a 1017% spike. A buy signal was confirmed this week after a recent technical visit to the 200 DEMA to complete the 50% retrace, 20% rise on the 21st
Sept to close above the 35DEMA at 20c. Safer entry on break of spike high on + volume above 25c. Gap is present and open all the way to 40c. (Trade safely with this one because the gap is even bigger below!!) (Mcap: $39.5m)
Spotted by: Pilsner (No Position Held)

MEU Copper in S Aust.) Massive spike today was followed by a less dramatic sell off in the afternoon. Stock has now retraced back approx 45% of spike and offloaded many day traders/short termers and weaker holders. I expect this flush out will continue for several days yet before the sellers become exhausted. Wait for the volume to decrease and price fall to cease and support to enter before attempting an entry. Tight stops are the order of the day. (Mcap: $8.24m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

MOX (Graphite) Rallied hard today on the back of the rally in MEU of which it has a large holding. Similarly to MEU SP move, it has retraced significantly and I think it will find support shortly probably around the same time as MEU. Watch for MEU turn as well as for a fading in selling on MOX and for support to enter. (Mcap: $6.73m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

ENT (Copper, Nickel) Stock has rallied hard about 1 week ago and is now in retrace mode. Sellers appear to have weakened over the last few days and I see that support has started to enter. Buy on continued show of support with increasing volume (Mcap: $44.78m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

CTR (Oil/Gas Guatemala) Pushed too hard to 3.3 cents about 10 trading days ago, moving from about 2.0 cents... with positive, yet "quiet" oil show news. Has given up almost all those gains by Fridays close with $500.00 two-pip "dodgy sell-down". Quite illiquid... so bollies of limited help... but charts but would suggest near term low of 0.018 worst case.... we will see. Very fair price if it gets there. (Mcap: $6.4m)
Spotted by: BigShareshead (No Position Held)

PNE (Gold Explorer) Volume increasing of late. OBV strong. Gap to 3.3c catches the eye. Get stop loss to breakeven as soon as possible then use trailing stop loss until blow off top day. Buy on break of 2c resistance. (Mcap: $7.45m)
Spotted by: Timbosivic (No Position Held)

HDX (Biotech/ Health) Buy on break of 5c long term resistance. Check out the weekly chart, they don't get much better. Saucer setup gives 15c target. Use Trailing stop loss and get stop to break even as soon as possible depending on your level of risk and trading plan. Similarly to MBN I'd be looking to pyramid on initial parcel once 2nd buy signal is received post break of 5c (Mcap: $67m)
Spotted by: Timbosivic (No Position Held)

MBN (Nickel Producer) Break of medium term 34c resistance. HL has now played out. Buy on break of 40c. Use tight stop loss as this recovery setup looks to have a lot in it. Gap to 65c then next resistance around 90c. Look to pyramid on next HL/HH post break of 40c (Mcap: $m)
Spotted by: Timbosivic (No Position Held)

WHN (Oil/Gas) Text book technical behaviour, broke 3c went over 3c but then fell back to back test 3c support (pivot point test) bounced off and moved higher, broke 3.5c went over 3.5c to as high as 3.8c but then fell back to back test 3.5c support (pivot point test) bounced off and moving higher should break 4c soon (Mcap: $52m)
Spotted by: Strauss (No Position Held)

GMX (Nickel in PNG) Has been held back by a substantial shareholder who has been relentlessly dumping shares, however Thursday and Friday has seen a huge increase in volume relative to its trading history of the last year and the stock should only require a follow up of 3-5m to take the holder out (Mcap: $6.65m)
Spotted by: Strauss (No Position Held)

VRX (Copper in WA) Break of 68c resistance (EOD) gives a ST profit target of $1 based on the ascending triangle setup volume increase last week must be noted as well as the very solid long term OBV (Mcap: $45.43m)
Spotted by: Timbosivic (No Position Held)

ECQ - (Biotech company) - Bottomed out at 0.5c and in the last week has shot back up from this support level. On the daily there are two resistance levels, 1.4, 1.8 and 2.2. The first was broken on the 13th after probing resistance. The second was broken today on HIGH volume. Once resistance @ 2.2 is passed there is little in the way stopping the sp rising to 3.1c. Most importantly is there is a gap remaining (light blue) between 4.9 and 5.7c. So plenty of targets to hit. Key resistances marked on the chart. I currently hold with a 40% profit. (Mcap: $6.1m) Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Adrunis84 (Position Held)

SBR - SBR has formed a symmetrical triangle/bull flag from the 14th August spike and is now at the apex of the symmetrical triangle. Apparent presence of a bull flag suggests this will move to the upside. Range for the sym triangle is 23c, so that gives a target of 46c (Mcap: $m) Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Adrunis84 (No Position Held)

BRW - Ran hard this week and has retraced to around the 50% mark of that run. Volume has dropped off nicely during the last few days showing that selling into these lower levels is waning. Entry on show of support above Fridays high (Mcap: $15.3m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)



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Links to Previous Weeks Lists

No.33: Short Term FA & TA Leads (17th - 21st Sep) - Click HERE

No.32: Short Term FA & TA Leads (10th - 14th Sep) - Click HERE

No.31: Short Term FA & TA Leads (3rd -7th Sep) - Click HERE

No.30: Short Term FA & TA Leads (27th - 31st Aug) - Click HERE