An update from me on my $50K ASX300 weekly gap strategy - 3 new entries were triggered today (see watchlist below):
A couple of points of interest:
buying the entry I should've taken on Monday (CHC) if I wasn't on a long weekend has proven a little costly since it gapped up on open today and then sold off to below the price I should've bought it for on Monday
together with the order error last week, the late CHC entry has resulted in a total execution variance so far of -$88.81
other than the CHC entry, one of the other two entries also involved a gap up open price entry, which in addition to the two from last week makes 3 out of 7 entries so far required to buy on open after gapping above the entry price. This is where having a solid backtest database is helpful with having confidence in the strategy or to flag potentially divergent behaviour because I know from the database that of the 1694 total entries in the backtest, only 78 required a daily gap up open entry (5%), yet already I have 3 out of 7 so this seems high, and therefore something to keep an eye on.
Based on the results so far the gap up open entries in each case it would have been better to wait for price to backtest to the strategy entry point after open, however while it is tempting to think that it might be better to wait for the better entry, I know from my backtest stats that sticking to taking the gap up open price has a solid positive expectancy and therefore no qualms about sticking to the strategy. The (incomplete) results of 7 trades certainly do not outweigh the statistics from a sample of 1694 data points.
