4:00: Germany German IFO Index (September): business climate index expected to rise from 115.9 to 116.0
EURUSD Daily
On August 29, the EUR/USD reached the top of the channel in which the pair has been trading since April, which set it on a corrective path. Getting in at 1.1900 would provide an ideal long entry, both in terms of support as well as risk-reward, between the September 14, 1.1837 low to the September 8, 1.2016 high.
Tuesday
10:00: US Consumer Confidence (September), New Home Sales (August): confidence projected to decline from 122.9 to 120.0, and new homes sales are seen to have risen from 571K to an annual rate of 580K.
SPX Daily
Since March, the S&P 500 has been trading within a rising channel in which buyers have steadily overtaken sellers. This past Wednesday, the bears gave it a go, after the benchmark registered its 42nd record high of the year.
However, after erasing nearly 3 days of gains, the bulls reestablished control and closed on a record. Trading produced a Hanging Man, which in itself is a bullish formation that demonstrates bulls' control. On Thursday, the price fell, erasing two days of gains. This was a bucket of cold water dumped on bullish complacency. Indeed, bulls were stopped out by this unexpected turn of events.
Gains on Friday—even after the index gapped down on the latest round of US-North Korean tensions, as well as the strengthening of safe havens such as Treasuries and the yen—may turn out to be short covering, providing an attractive short-entry point.
Wednesday
8:30: US Durable Goods Orders (August): orders predicted to rise 1.5% from a 6.8% drop a month earlier. Excluding transportation, the figures are 0.3% from 0.5%. 15:00: US Pending Home Sales (August): sales forecast to fall 1% from 1.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
DXY Daily
The US Dollar Index has rebounded from its 91.00 multi-year low, and has been consolidating since in what may prove to be a bottom. However, for now, it is still within a downtrend. A rise to 92.5 may be a shorting opportunity to the range bottom of 91.60 and perhaps to retest the 91.00 low. 10:30: US EIA Crude Inventories (w/e 22 Sept): previous week’s figure was a rise of 4.591 million barrels.
Oil Daily
While the price of oil does appear to have reversed its downtrend from February into an uptrend since June, this was seen as such only since it crossed above the falling channel and registered a peak higher than its former peak in August, the price has been experiencing significant selling resistance at the $50 level. It may retest the new, rising channels’ support, toward $47.
Thursday
5:00: Eurozone Business Confidence (September): forecast to rise from 1 to 1.1. 8:00: Germany CPI (September, preliminary): expected to hold at 1.8%.
Stoxx 600 Daily
The STOXX 600 Index has neared its downtrend line since May. 8:30: US GDP (Q2, final), Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 23 September): GDP expected to be left unrevised at 3.0% QoQ. Initial jobless claims expected to rise from 259K to 270K 19:30: Japan Unemployment Rate (August): expected to rise from 2.8%. to 2.9%
USDJPY Daily
The USD/JPY pair has produced a Bearish Engulfing Pattern near the top of its falling channel since March, suggesting a retesting of 107.00.
Friday
4:00: Germany Unemployment Rate (September): expected to remain at 5.7%. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
4:40: UK GDP (Q2, final): no change to previous estimates of 0.3% QoQ and 1.7% YoY expected.
FTSE 100 Daily
The UK's FTSE 100 Index is struggling on the line that meets a series of lows starting at June 30. However, having registered a lower peak on September 15 suggests a downtrend, at least till it meets its long-term uptrend line, currently at 6850, and rising. The 7100 level is expected to provide a support, after it has done so in February and April. 5:00: Eurozone Inflation (September, flash): overall CPI expected to fall from 1.5% to 1.4% YoY, while core CPI climbs from 1.2%. to 1.3%. 9:45 US Chicago PMI (September): expected to fall from 58.9 to 58.2. 10:00: US Michigan Consumer Confidence (September, final): no change to the 96.8 reading expected
