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Short Term Trading Week Starting: 26 November 2018, page-69

  1. 837 Posts.
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    If charts are created plotting T-bond yields and superimposed with NYSE total stocks index, I believe that there is very little positive or negative correlation. I have been recording values of the ETF on the ASX - GGUS alongside 2, 10, and 30 year T-bond yields on a spreadsheet for the last 4 months and have not observed any regular patterns. 

    An inverse yield curve where the 2 year bond has a higher yield than 10 year bond, almost in every case, precedes a bear market in stocks. There has been no inversion of the yield curve in recent months, so my interpretation is that there is no definite reason why US stocks will be hitting new lows in the short medium term. Trade war considerations between the US and China to me appears to be the main game currently.



 
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