Short Term Trading Week Starting: 26 November 2018, page-77

Cheers @diver Dan, was pleased to see the Fed minutes were mostly in line with expectations, if not slightly more dovish. The signs that had been creeping in showing the trade war was having a slowdown effect were indeed my main rationale for them to take a more cautious tone, and appears to have been their reasoning. I wondered whether the downward slide of oil has had an effect on their outlook, but that is a more recent move I and I don't think I regard the Fed as being that responsive to something that moves that quickly, rather the eye in the sky trying to take in the much broader picture.

Either way, I think they have delivered what the equity bulls needed to hear. Going from 3-4 expected hikes next year to now potentially only 1 says a lot. Of course I cant help but wonder if there has been some more political pressure that has also caused Powell to take this more considered tone.

@radx Yep I'm sure you are not the only one that think financial media just pick a reason for a move up or down with little to no justification. The cynic in me may even suggest attempts of willful misdirection on part of some.

I do think a genuinely positive outcome (we are talking the unlikely event of a resolution and a deal) would have a meaningful impact, but agree the likely "we talked and we are all working hard to ensure this get resolved, we are all positive moving forward blah blah" kind of thing we've heard 100 times before is unlikely to be meaningful beyond a short spike, and I think short of a genuine deal, the trade war the US markets are not going to be breaking the previous highs, and Mr Yogi Bear will be making an appearance in the future to nick some of our picnic baskets.

Sad though the Aussie markets are still looking very weak, the big banks again taking a battering, looks a genuine danger of breaking down further in December. And you've got the whole Brexit madness lurking around the corner. Certainly not dull, nor easy times to be making predictions.