short term trading week starting - 26th aug, page-2

Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 27th Aug 2012 (No. 30)

Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
Again, I have taken the liberty of adding some info where it was unclear or fixing typos where I came across them. Hope no one minds. I have reduced the list to 10 or so items again. If you would like me to change your item then please let me know and I will update and I will re-issue. Will open for submissions on next week’s list this Friday after market close. All market caps are undiluted and were correct at time of posting (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).

Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!


Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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FFF -. Firstfolio is a mortgage and financial services company. Based on recent results. This type of company has fallen out of favour however it has recorded a profit after tax of $3.2m. Also a director Anthony Wales has a holding of 16.2% and has also loaned the company $29m so there is a vested interest for the company to work. So in my view it is undervalued with an EPS of 0.42c with a PE ratio of 4.7. (Mcap: $13.9m)
[Undervalued with an EPS of 0.42c/share]
Spotted by: Finch (Position Held)

CFU - World leader in ceramic fuel cell generation, from gas, bases in Melbourne, factories UK and Germany, distributes even in US. Profits up 100% on same time last year, losing money, gets grants, this time doing non renounceable to raise 18m with 14% dilution (Mcap: $72m)
[Profits up 100% on this time last year.]
Spotted by: Janvier (Position Held)

HOG - Self funded gas exploration in Ukraine from one well clearing $1.5m a month, building own gas plant, approaching 4200 m target of proximal second well. Opportunity with imminent announcement from confident team who will report on taking of core and production casing WITHOUT pressure testing. (well had flown gas in 1984, and this time round muds showed elevated gas readings) I will look for unusual high volume "ghost trade" as trigger signal (Mcap: $55m)
[Announcement on recent well imminent]
Spotted by: Janvier (Position Held)

AVB - Copper, Gold Iron Ore Nickel in Brazil, Company is currently drilling to increase the size of its Jorc Copper resource in the prolific mineral province of the Carajas region Brazil. The company is targeting an increase of its contained Jorc Copper to 600kt (currently 480kt) of resource which will enable the company to then move into a mining and production phase for the project. In addition to this the Company has signed an agreement whereby Vale can acquire its substantial iron ore assets for a one off payment up to but not exceeding $40m. It is expected that funds received from Vale will be used to partially finance the early ramp up to mining for the company. (Mcap: $91m)
[Expecting a substantial copper/gold Jorc upgrade]
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

AKK - Oil and Gas Company with assets in Australia and the United States. Core focus is non-conventional shale exploration in the United States. The Company has now established a major presence in two of America’s most prolific oil and gas basins. Austin controls more than 11,000 acres in Colorado in the Niobrara Shale and over 5,000 acres in Texas in the Eagle Ford Shale. Austin has producing oil and gas wells in Texas, Mississippi and Kentucky. Austin also has a highly prospective Oil and Gas Licence, PEL 105, in the Cooper Basin of South Australia. The company’s wholly owned US Subsidiary, Aus-Tex Exploration Inc, turned cash flow positive in January 2011. Company is cashed up since CR and currently engaged in multi- well drilling campaign in the US including Eagle Ford shale and Colorado Niobrara. Results expected soon (Mcap: $28.4m)
[Multi Well drill campaign results expected soon]
Spotted by: Prophet ( Position Held)

LSR - Lodestar Minerals Limited is a Perth-based explorer with projects in the Kimberley, Peak Hill and Kalgoorlie regions. Lodestar acquired its “Flagship” Peak Hill – Doolgunna project in March 2010. The Peak Hill – Doolgunna project forms the core of Lodestar’s project portfolio and represents a strategic landholding of 2200 square kilometres covering 120 kilometres of the Jenkin Thrust Belt, a regional fault system that is adjacent to the recently discovered DeGrussa Cu-Au deposit. Lodestar is embarking on an aggressive exploration program to assess the potential of the emerging and under-explored north Murchison base metal province. They have some lag samples pending but I doubt they would warrant much interest. They have drilling results pending from their Kimberley Project on which they have a farm out agreement with PAN/PEC. LSR has been known as a leaky ship previously, so might be interesting next week given today's trading. (Mcap: $5.24m)
[Upcoming Drill Results ]
Spotted by: Jimmy64 (Position Held)

DAU - Dampier Gold is the dominant land holder (~700km²) over the prolific but under-explored Plutonic – Marymia Greenstone Belt in central Western Australia. With established infrastructure, granted mining leases and framework terms established for access to the Barrick Plutonic processing facility, Company Share price is up about 80% on low volume over the last two weeks and compared to it's Doolgunna East neighbours has by far the lowest MC and EV. Also the only one with a JORC resource. Top 20 hold 49% and directors themselves hold 17% so plenty of skin in the game. Tightly held and I think the free float is in the vicinity of a tiny 20-25 million shares. Should run hard on good news either from the company or one of it's neighbours (Mcap: $5.53m)
[Nearology/ Low MC & EV compared to Peers/Neighbours]
Spotted by: John435 (No Position Held)

DTE - (Oil/Gas/Shale in Scotland, China Aust, Indonesia, India, Poland, Belgium and Germany. Currently have 143 Tcf of much loved SHALE GAS in place estimated, plus main CBM gas estimates.. which are huge. Very diverse asset base in prime areas to sell gas at high prices. Significantly undervalued market cap in comparison to peers. Director was buying big at about 35 cent mark back in March 2012 Producing gas already... with plenty more coming on line, partnered up with "allies" all over the globe alarm bells for a rally ringing all over outside of Hot Copper for some time... escalating this week. Cash in bank $72.5 million Loan available to be drawn down if needed ($100 million) Market cap $122 million at 16 cents Friday close.... Basically the cash and loan are being counted as something... all assets valued at Zero..... not right. Could head north very quickly if shorters turn promoters, good news flows in as planned, and market wakes up. (Mcap: $103m)
Spotted by: Bigsharehead (Position Held)

PEX - Copper/Lead/Gold Silver Explorer, Companies main focus is the Mallee Bull Copper-polymetallic Discovery (Gilgunnia, NSW). Market has sat up an taken notice on recent large intersection of Massive Sulphides with handheld XRF showing the presence of Copper/Lead/Zinc and Silver (awaiting assays to confirm grades). Drilling completed to date indicates that high-grade copper-dominant polymetallic sulphide mineralisation at Mallee Bull has a strike length of ~120m, comes to within 150m of surface, and now extends to at least 400m below surface and is open in multiple directions including at depth. (Mcap: $28.7m)
[Expect more +ive XRF results and later positive assay resulted from recent polymetalic intersections]
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

LOM - Diamonds in Angola, The company is currently drilling/bulk testing 61 possible Kimberlites in Angola (on ground next to Debeers) looking for diamonds with a Bauer Bulk testing drill rig they also have a Dense Media Separator with which they will use to find diamonds in the bulk sample on-site. My understanding is they will narrow drill targets first then return and do bulk testing if something is found. Will take a punt an assume that the current trading halt will bring good news on Tuesday. (Mcap: $28m)
[Awaiting Exploration update on Tuesday]
Spotted by: Freehold (Position Held)

CXO - Copper/Uranium on the York peninsula in S.Aust. Copper mineralisation identified in first diamond drill program on the Yorke Peninsula in S.A. High grade uranium and copper in outcrop has been id’ed at Fitton Project •Considering options to introduce senior partner on Roxby South Project near BHP’s Olympic Dam mine Company looking for copper and gold on York peninsula next to REX:ASX. CXO holds land on the flanks (30km South) of Olympic Dam Uranium mine. Core now holds 400km2 of granted 100%-owned tenements near BHP Billiton’s Olympic Dam Mine. Has $3m Cash approx (Mcap: $3.32m)
[Nearology to BHP Olympic Dam Mine]
Spotted by: Sunnq (No Position Held)

MGV - Company has large exploration footprint in the Musgrave Province in South Australia, with tenements covering an area of approximately 50,000km2 – which equates to approximately 5% of the State. The Company has a powerful shareholder base with six mining and exploration companies participating as cornerstone investors. The Musgrave Province is one of the last under-explored exploration frontiers in Australia and is prospective for a number of commodities. The centrepiece is the recognition of, and access to, the unexplored potential of the Giles Complex, a 1080Ma aged mafic-ultramafic layered intrusive complex that hosts significant nickel and copper sulphide deposits (such as the Nebo/Babel deposit) in the Western Australian portion of the Province. So has a portfolio of highly prospective copper targets in the Musgrave Province in South Australia. The share price has suffered from bad market conditions during the last 6 months and IMHO an unknown status in the spec investment sector Taken from a recent post on the MGV thread "great people, great story, lots of cash, lots of ground, plenty of targets, got all the makings". Diluted market cap of 8.5 million with cash at hand of 13.5 million as of last quarterly report-so trading well below cash value (Mcap: $8.5m)
[Trading below cash valuation]
Spotted by: Andiver1964 (No Position Held)

MAT - Matsa Resources is to immediately accelerate its exploration programme in the Fraser Range area NE of Norseman following the Nova Nickel-Copper sulphide discovery announced by Sirius Resources NL (ASX:SIR). Matsa’s Symons Hill tenement (ELA69/3070) is located only two kilometres south of Sirius’s tenement and six kilometres SSW of the discovery hole (4m 3.8%Ni and 1.42%Cu SIR announcement 26th July 2012). “This discovery just to the north of our ground is very exciting for Matsa as it emphasises the prospectively of our Fraser Range Project and in particular Symons Hill,” (Mcap: $36m)
[Nearology play to SIR recent Nova discovery ]
Spotted by: Adrunis84 (No Position Held)




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Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects

COF - Confirmed breakout (first week of Aug) of a resistance line from the 2007 all time high. Currently resting from that recent move with a completed 50% retrace after a teaser move last week through the 200DEMA. Currently sits just under that line and looks set to push higher early next week, vacuum (7c gap) to fill when past next resistance at 50c (Mcap: $117m)
Spotted by: Pilsner (No Position Held)

HOR - Bounced off weekly support at 20c after breaching 23.5, now testing this level as resistance, following fib circle from peak at 33c (Mcap: $16m)
Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Adrunis84 (No Position Held)

PEX - Completed symmetrical triangle pattern and has broken out, currently trending on up channel of the triangle. Symmetrical triangle, setting low point at 16, mid at 26 and peak at 36. This is a range of 20c. This sets a target price of 56c (20c from the peak. Intermediate targets; 46c (mid), 36 (lower) (Mcap: $34.8) Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Adrunis84 (No Position Held)

SIR - Looks to be forming a pennant or symmetrical triangle from the 17th. Pattern should finalise in the next couple of days. Failure to complete this pattern could see the formation of a descending wedge... (Mcap: $193m)
Spotted by: Adrunis84 (No Position Held)

ESI (Short) - Downtrend from high on 10th April on decreasing volume. Next support appears to be 1.1/10. Unless volume picks up this stock should continue to trend down (Mcap: $24.1m) Click Here for Chart
Spotted by: Adrunis84 (No Position Held)

ELM - Seems to have found support following the punch through resistance of the old TR. Well overdue for a move fundamentally and technically the broader potash sector appears to be on the verge of a major move, lagging the soaring prices in corn, wheat etc (Mcap: $194m)
Spotted by: Angin (Position Held)

GXN - Purely based on volume criteria. Heaviest volume ever in all its history. Accumulation/distribution paints a nice picture. OBV stands at the highest ever by some 200m ,while the SP is down 95% from its peak of 0.36 in 2007 (Mcap: $8m)
Spotted by: (Position Held)

NMS - Breakout and recent confirmation of support from the breakout line. This break line originates from a 2007 all time high. Volume is confirming slowly but nicely and buyers stepped in on the recent cross of the 10DEMA over the 35 DEMA buy signal. look for increasing volume to confirm entry position. This could be the start of something more substantial (Mcap: $44m)
Spotted by: Pilsner (No Position Held)

MOY - Recent Spike and Retrace followed by support entering taking the price back up to the short term high. Expect it to break higher. From here. Entry on break to new high with Volume .(Mcap: $106m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

FFF - Appears it has broken its long term downtrend about 2 weeks ago and spiked strongly on increased Volume. This spike has retraced and it appears support a has re-entered taking it back to is short term high. Entry on break to new short term high with volume (Mcap: $15.5m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

AVB - Has spiked twice since breaking downtrend and has retraced both times. Volume has been very strong on both spikes and is not fading. I expect there will be another Spike over the next week or two which should see the stock retest the 10c region. . (Mcap: $90m)
Spotted by: Freehold (Position Held)

MTH - Large spike which is in the the early stages of a retrace. Retrace should continue for several days before the sellers become exhausted. Entry on show of support and secondary entery on break to new should terl high.(Mcap: $15.4m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

GDY -Broken out of range trading about 1 week ago and subsequent spike has now entered the retrace stage...Expect a few more days of consolidation before the buyers re-enter on mass. Buy on show of support and or break to new short term high. (Mcap: $58m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

MEL - Recent break of downtrend with volume that has been in place since Nov last year. Stock rallied and retraced down (on reducing volume ) and found support around the top of the previous down trend line. Expect the stock to retest high shortly (Mcap: $28.4m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)




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Links to Previous Weeks Lists

No.29: Short Term FA & TA Leads (20 - 24th Aug) - Click HERE

No.28: Short Term FA & TA Leads (13th - 17th Aug) - Click HERE