Weekly Fundamental Week Starting 28th Jul 2014 (No. 125)
Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).
Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!
Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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NXR - Biometric Security Technology, Global Technology Sector [28/07/2014]
All you need to do to use the technology is look at an image on your mobile phone screen or ATM screen. A camera takes a photo of the image reflected in your eye. You are allowed to proceed, to make a call, or withdraw cash. Wavefront Biometric Technologies (WBT) has "back-doored" through iron ore explorer Nemex Resources, who currently own 20% of WBT. NXR may purchase up to 51% of WBT through three more development tranches. The next 10% tranche is conditional on implementing the technology in a mobile device. This has been done, although not formally reviewed by NXR directors. This tranche is $625,000 for an additional 10% of WBT. Directors have until mid-August to formally proceed. The technology appears to be significantly de-risked. Of course things can still go wrong. The final two tranches to get from 30% to 51%, require $2.75m to be paid to WBT. I assume 55m shares are issued at 5c per share, giving 212 million shares in total. A low-ball value for the technology based on previous transactions for biometric security products is $50m. NXR's 51% share is worth 12c per share on this basis. Current share price is 2.4c. It's my highest conviction call for a long time. Management and development personnel come from CSIRO, major Australian banks, surgical optometry designers, optometry university departments
Poster: Umizoomi (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13717109/single (Mcap: $3.8m)
LMR - Thermal Coal [28/07/2014]
Mc or 8mil (@4c) with cash of ~15.5mil. Had a takeover offer last year of 19mil (~9.5c) and that company still holds 50 % so another offer could happen. One coal project which the economics looks good because its a power production venture rather than trying to sell overseas into a depressed market. Proactive did an article yesterday which may also turn some heads. I see this as a slightly longer than ST trade because of its illiquid nature, but as i only need it to hit 5c for this to qualify as a win, ill list it anyhow
Poster: Nihilism (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13711825/single (Mcap: $9m)
MSR - Gold in Kyrgyz Republic [28/07/2014]
Shares on issue = 413 million Cash = 3.4 million as per last quarterly ( deduct 300-400k on admin costs) Market cap = 19 million Top 4 holders holding = 30% (approx) including Mining Institutions Few very important facts:1: BFS complete for +220,000 ounces of gold for US$387 per ounce (a stand out)2: MSR included in Kyrgyz Republic GDP 2014/2015 Budget... Supported greatly by the government in the past.3. Surrounded by Kumtor - 17Mozs, Taldybulak - 5Mozs- Andash - 1.1MOzs, Jerooy - 4Mozs and Chaarat - 4Mozs.4. Net cash flow US$148M after capital, taxes and royalties (excluding financing costs which are around US$40-45 million) from the production of 227,000oz of gold over a 4 and half year mine life at US$1400 gold price. This means required finance will be paid within a year of production even at $1000.00 gold price. 5. This is an internal rate of return of 67% at an 8% discount rate.6. Low cost vat leach and jeap leach operation with projected 84.8% overall gold recovery including +90% gold recovery for oxide material.7. 1.18Mozs total resource - across Shambesai and Obdilla 8. Environmental Impact Assessment process completed and project OVOS completed. Why I think it's a buy? The management of the company has been in discussions with few interested parties both financial institutions and Chinese and Russian investors who have already invested in the area. Management has said that deal would be at a better price than sp which they believe is extremely low. Stephen Ross - MD has been in China quite a few times in last couple of months. As per my calculations deal is not far a head. If a finance deal is done, MSR may have a dream run. The selling side looks extremely thin with very few interested to sell. Share price has gained few ticks from mid 3s to mid 4s recently. 4 to 4.5c has major resistance in last few months which seems like losing itself.... Undervalued investment opportunity which may make some huge gains....Disclosure: I hold a lot of MSRO (Strike 8c, March 2015).
Poster: Forrestfield (STT Accuracy: 65.4% - Ranking No.2 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13718097/single (Mcap: $18.6m)
SFP - Medical products [28/07/2014]
Is involved in the research and development of medical syringe technology as well as mineral exploration. SFP had various patents and registered trademarks associated with the SecureTouch, but SFP is now solely focussed on Australia. The company also has exposure to gold tenements. Safety Medical Products has acquired 3D Medical Limited and has been validated with the latter reaching an exclusive Service Level Agreement with Capitol Health (ASX:CAJ) to provide 3D printing services. This will provide immediate revenue generation and offers commercial upside when its services are implemented Australia-wide. With M/C of $7.7m this should have a positive effect on the SP. Short term target: 2.0c
Poster: Damo777 (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13719064/single (Mcap: $6.7m)
YRR - Vanadium Project in Western Australia. [28/07/2014]
F/A: High grade near surface mineralisation at **anintha. The company is also well-funded after recently raising $3.36 million to fund work at the project. increased interest in the chemical applications for vanadium, particularly the redox battery market.“Vanadium redox batteries for grid-scale energy storage are becoming more and more commercially viable and now they are getting built in the hi-tech manufacturing economies of the world. Short term target: 3.6c
Poster: Damo777 (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13719064/single (Mcap: $6.4m)
BMG - Nickel-copper-cobalt-gold prospect in Cypres [28/07/2014]
Results due in coming weeks for 20 hole R/C drilling program in a area known to have shown massive and disseminated sulphides in the 1950's.Given the small M/C of $4.4m any positive results will see the SP respond well. Short term target: 3.0c
Poster: Damo777 (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13719064/single (Mcap: $5.7m)
SBB - Apparel China [28/07/2014]
market cap: $34mcash on hand: $31mDebt: $9mNet profit for 2013: $13.9mAnnual sales for 2013: $79mSales for first 5 months 2014: $37mbusiness is make decent profit, recent drop mainly due to selling from seed investors. June quarterly report will be important to confirm how the business is performing
Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 44.4% - Ranking No.9 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13718253/single (Mcap: $34.4m)
SLX - Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment [25/07/2014]
Cash on hand around $60m Market cap is $96m.Debt free. Share price shed 80% within a year. Its a bounce play. Silex Systems Limited (SLX) is an Australian company which focuses on research, development and commercialisation of technologies across three platforms, including nuclear energy, solar energy and advanced materials & instrumentation. Its proprietary rights in technologies, including but not limited to, Silex, Solar Systems, Translucent and ChronoLogic
Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 44.4% - Ranking No.9 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13710139/single (Mcap: $109.9m)
PLS - Tantalum in Pilbara [24/07/2014]
Mining for Tantalum in Pilbara which is used in electronics, mainly capacitors. Recently conducted a cap raise, large cornerstone investor encouraging, and SI’s, plus followed by a SPP, which closed today. Expect to hear SPP was oversubscribed. PLS’s current holdings have been expanded, and include production and off takes in place."The project is forecast to generating EBITDA of $16 million and life-of-mine revenue of $30.2 million for a pre-start-up capital cost of $3.9 million, of which over $1.5 million has already been spent (see ASX Announcement – 19 February 2014)" SPP closed today and any advantage from arbitrage has ended. New buyers are expected as not many shares came onto the market since SPP was offered, and even current holders may come into the market as I believe the SPP will be oversubscribed Very tightly held
Poster: Ibuybulion (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13703703/single (Mcap: $7.3m)
QFX - Online movie DVD rental and streaming in Australia [23/07/2014]
$ 10 million cap$2.5 mill cash ($3.8 at March, less quarterly burn of 1.3)A solid improvement in customer receipts in the March quarter, around 9% and the June quarterly expected shortly, which could well put an end to the speculation of QFXs death. To top this off the recent announcement that Channel9 has acquired HBOs preference shares (9%) could mean that there could either be a T/O in the wings or partnership, even a bidding war!! between the commercial TV stations as they try to buy a foot into digital streaming countering FOX/Murdoch and Netflix
Poster: Ibuybulion (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13698629/single (Mcap: $18.5m)
KSN - Iron Ore Copper Gold in South Australia [23/07/2014]
KSN , they have some really good ground in South Australia , their main lease was off limits for over 50 years as it was the US army base in South Australia and no one had permission to explore let alone enter the grounds where they were testing bombs etc . Before it was a US base old exploration did show IOCG results that warranted follow up .SER the KSN jv partner did some preliminary drilling , and it did highlight targets of follow up , there has been a lot of games going on with the share price of KSN over the last 12 months which has seen the stock fall from .20c to .02c and a market cap of almost zero One seller has consistently sold lots of $2 of shares to push the price down regularly , it costs me $20 to do a minimum trade , so to sell $2 worth of stock would actually cost me $18 , why would you do it ? It has happened about 50 times over the last 12 months , and each time the price drops 5% + each time . This action makes me think someone wants this stock lower , and it seems they want it lower before the serious drill , the only explanation I can think of is that there might be a takeover offer launched at a fraction of the price or real value it is worth before these actions started. I get all explorers have fallen but from 20c to 2c is a massive fall and no others I can see have had this type of steady negativity trading activities When the assets of KSN in South Australia were vended in they were put in at a 20c value , the company raised $2 million in cash through Melbourne Capital at .20c and they got unlisted options as their payment with a 20c strike price. The options are about to expire worthless , and my guess is that once they have expired we might see some action. The market cap is less than $1 million and they have lots f leases and cash in the bank with no debt The next seller after the 2c price sits at four times that number so if it runs it could run quickly
Poster: Firsova (STT Accuracy: 23.8% - Ranking No.14 ) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13698454/single (Mcap: $1m)
Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects
SFP - Graphite, magnesite, manganese, copper, gold and uranium explorer in Australia [28/07/2014]
We have broken through the down trend that commenced in 2012 (broke out from that early July 2014).That on its own is extremely bullish,but know our short term goals are to get through the 19.5c resistance witch we have achieved,we then had a crack at the 23c resistance witch we failed to do (reason being lack of volume).We then retraced back to our old resistance level of 19.5c bouncing of it nicely confirming it as now a support line.once we get some more volume behind us we should break the wall down at 23c to 25c then a big move is on the cards.Short term target:40c
Poster: Damo777 (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13719064/single (Mcap: $6.7m)
SFP - Medical products [28/07/2014]
The SP has broken out of a 3 year down trend line and is now in up trend on the daily chart candles now above EMA'S and EMA'S now pointing up.SP is right under 0.9c resistance with continued volume we should break through it easily.
Poster: Damo777 (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13719064/single (Mcap: $6.7m)
QFX - Online movie DVD rental and streaming in Australia [23/07/2014]
A recent spike on this latest news, may settle and consolidate before what I hope is a doubling in price very quickly. Not a sexy resource play but money to be made
Poster: Ibuybulion (STT Accuracy: Unknown) http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/13698629/single (Mcap: $18.5m)
KM will have $8.6M in cash and a further $2.3M in liquid assets ,having a nominal price(for the moment) of 20c will see it open with a MC of $16.5M ,about 82 million shares on issue and an EV of about $6MRXL on the other hand has approximately $3.8M in cash ,735 million shares on issue, a MC of $33.5M with an EV of $29.7MDKM I believe also has a larger JORC Resource than RXL. Below is a map showing their respective tenements
