Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 30th April 2012 (No. 13)
Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week). Again, I have taken the liberty of adding some info where it was unclear or fixing typos where I came across them. Hope no one minds. I have reduced the list to 10 or so items again. If you would like me to change your item then please let me know and I will update and I will re-issue. Will open for submissions on next week’s list this Friday after market close. All market caps are undiluted and were correct at time of posting (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).
Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that research it first and make your own mind up to invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided by Spotters as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!
Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BAS - Oil/Gas in Otway & Gippsland Basin. The key field operation during the quarter was the rehabilitation of the Windermere-3 drilling site in PEP 167 in the onshore Otway Basin. This has now been completed. The Company also finalised a farmin agreement with Somerton Energy to obtain a 15% interest in PEP 150 and accepted assignment of Interra Resources 50% interest in PEP 167 in the onshore Otway Basin. Beyond the ongoing projects in our various offshore areas, the Company is continuing discussions in its efforts to attract investment partners as well as reviewing new opportunities and strategies. Fundamentally could be a takeover play has received an informal takeover approach a few months back and recently has seen its only other neighbour in the Otway SNE get taken over (Mcap: $8.5m) Click here to see more info and chart [Possible Takeover Target neighbour SNE has recently been taken over] Spotted By: Strauss (No Position Held)
WFE - Iron Ore in the Pilbara. Pilbara Fe explorer which owns 51% (in JV with Cazaly) of target of 400mt @ 54-56% Fe and current Jorc of 241.6mt @ 54.3 % Fe. Resource open at depth and along strike to the NW. Unexplored northern tenement adjoining FMG Solomon deposit, has option to acquire remaining 49% from Cazaly. A heritage survey is expected to be completed early May. Step out drilling is scheduled to commence immediately thereafter. Current sp 13c after closing up 13% on Friday in anticipation of announcement Monday or Tuesday after Monday 10.30am AGM (Mcap: $10m) [Issue of 3rd tranche of shares on 30 April to PXSteel International (Asia) Corporation Limited @ 20c a premium to current Share price of 13c. This assume approval at EGM on 30 Apr 2012] Spotted By: Christophe ( Position Held)
AXT - Iron, Copper Gold and Base metals. Company searching for iron oxide copper-gold, gold, uranium and base metal deposits in prospective locations of the Gawler Craton, South Australia. Argo is a focused explorer searching for world-class ore deposits currently within two key project areas, namely Intercept Hill and Toondulya. After Xstrata resumed drilling on their South Australian tenement near Olympic dam. Two holes trying to intersect that copper/gold target! Good chance they will hit something down there! While drilling was underway last time the stock was up at 15c/16c. Shouldn't take too long to get either some visible results or assays! (Mcap: $4.2m) [Awaiting Drill Results from Xstrata on Winjabbie East Prospect] Spotted By: Christophe ( Position Held)
NMG - Gold producer in Ghana Africa, Second gold pour at Bibiani in the month of April. Total gold poured now in excess of 1,000oz to date Final stages of commissioning of Bibiani plant proceeding well. Recently has done a $20m capital raising @ 35 cents (1st Tranche 24 April, 2nd tranche needs share holder approval). Share price dropped to a low of 27.5c cents as is usual with C/R investors get spooked and overreact (Mcap: $162m) [Over negative reaction to Cap raise and just started pouring Gold.] Spotted By: Demontrader (Position Held)
BMB - Poland, Copper Explorer, Visible Copper in 1st drill hole at Bogdan project. The mineralization may be up to 2m thick overall with sulphides existing through the entire zone. Share price has had a bit of a surge and even though Fridays candlestick (Bearish meeting lines) suggests a reversal.. I think F/A might trump T/A as company has announced drill results expected with weeks from what looks like high grade visible copper in core samples.. So I think more punters will want to most likely to a position and hold till results.. (Mcap: $38.8m) [Awaiting assays on drill cores which have visible copper] Spotted By: Demontrader (No Position Held)
AVX - Australian Pharmaceuticals Company. Licensed 1st generation HIV intergrase Inhibitor and antibacterial agent licensed to Valevia GmbH. Has plenty of cash in the Kitty approx 15 million just announced to co- marketing partner, they have a product and have sales, even though at this stage sales revenue is very small.. But sp @ 3.2 cents does not represent real valuation.. Friday saw a sell down from 3.8 cents on news to 3.2 cents.. But one worth to put on your watch list. (Mcap: $27.9m) [No event provided] Spotted By: DemonTrader (No Position Held)
CHZ - High grade Gold in Turkey. Maybe a world class deposit?. The Kestanelik Deposit is a company maker. Intercepts between 10-20m and shallow depth open pittable mining and strike open in several directions. Likely to be low cost high grade deposit. Veins are exposed on hillside and dive undercover at the bottom of the hill. At Least 21km of veins on property. Some better results are 8m @ 23g/t, 4m @ 19 g/t. A maiden JORC resource estimate at Kestanelik is expected to be released as soon as possible in Q2 2012 (was due in Q1) (Mcap:$73m) [Awaiting maiden Jorc definition in early May] Spotted By: Freehold (No Position Held)
OTE - Oil/Gas in Texas US, Currently drilling the Commanchee horizontal well and has a 12.5% interest in a proven oil field. Cygnet just took up a significant interest. Negative points. Just announced another duster in another region for two in a row. Positive: they give out weekly updates and have planned several other wells in near future. Well funded to carry out drilling. Price .005 and not all that many shares on issue. Own their own drilling rig. Receiving a small cash return from interest in a commercial well (MCap:$3.7m) [Drilling horizontal well awaiting results announced spudded their second well Catahoula Lake along with their Commanche Horizontal] Spotted By: Bluebottle18 (Position Held)
MNC Cu, Base metals in Peru South America – ASX/AIM listed stock 'Los Calatos' (a copper porphyry project) with a current JORC of 926Mt @ 0.37% Cu... A further 64,000m of drilling has been done since the maiden major compliant resource. Upgrade Jorc due estimates for the upgrade range from 2.5bt and upwards. This would possibly make it a potential takeover target. The company has already been approached by various majors. Bolstering its credentials as a world class low cost copper mine is Calatos' desert location. It is close enough to the sea to allow for use of seawater in its processing plants. Surrounding population is minimal. Just as a recent example of M and A activity in the industry: Sumitomo recently paid $724 million for a 45% stake in Quadra FNX's Sierra Gorda copper and gold project which had total resources of 2918mt at 0.35% Cu (MCap: $314m) [This week expecting a large Jorc resource upgrade for Los Calatos project] Spotted By: Ether1988 (No Position Held)
RIA - Oil/gas exploration offshore Cote d'Ivore Africa. Currently drilling the Gazelle P-3 well. Recent Problems with 1st drill hole. New hole is expected to be at 1000m by Tuesday. Drilling success will have a very positive bearing upon the overall development economics. At $5/bbl and $0.10/mcf in-ground, a discovery would be worth $128m (~$0.18/sh fully diluted) net to RIA (at 85% interest). A third well will target the high impact, oil prone, Chouette (84mmbbls and 42Bcf P50 potential) exploration prospect at the Hippo Cluster. A success at Chouette would warrant a valuation of around $361m at $5/bbl in-ground (or $0.50/sh) net to RIA. Recent broker target of $1.00/share RIA is trading on an attractive EV/2C multiple of $1.70/boe (MCap:$262m) Click here to see more info and chart [Awaiting oil well drill results from the Gazelle P-3 well offshore Coted’Ivore] Spotted By:Exmouth79 (Position Held)
LYC - First major rare earth producer outside China. Price fall due to protest in Malaysia, plant delay and falling in Rare Earth price over last 6 months. Currently, Malaysia plant almost finish (unofficial Malaysia news say 3 weeks to finish) and official announcement say first production in Q2. Plus weekly Rare Earth price has stopped falling since 2 weeks ago and legal action by protestors should be sorted out this month.. Enter in expectation for production in next 2 months. (Market Cap:$1915m) [Legal action with protestors may be resolved by end of month and production approaching] Spotted By: Nzak (Position Held)
AKK - Austin’s first Eagle Ford well, Krueger #1, exceeds pre-drill expectations, flowing at 95 BOEPD on a 24 hour test. High oil content (approximately 75% oil) in the productive oil window of the Eagle Ford . Taylor Sand to be tested in April. Infrastructure being prepared at site for long term flow testing with production to commence in April. Potential for significant uplift in production from horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracture stimulation. 2 new vertical wells and 1 horizontal well to be drilled at Austin’s Eagle Ford Shale Project over coming months. Richard Cottee recent appt added some extra credibility to the already top notch management team. Recently completed CR at 2.9c sitting at 2.8c strong support. (Market Cap:$41.9m) [Testing of Taylor Sand to be performed in April] Spotted By: MyRules88 (No Position Held)
AKM - Coking Coal Northern Mongolia, Jorc 330mt premium Coking Coal. Targeting the development of a 15 million tonne per annum ROM open pit mine at Ovoot The PFS is 2-4 weeks away which should see it gather momentum shortly. Examining use of Multiuser Railway to Moron. Rail to Moron is part of the 2008 – 2015 Development Plan for Khuvsgul Province. Gina R is onboard, you'd think she might be onto something.. (Market Cap:$183m) [Pre-Feasibility Study on Ovoot Coking Coal Project 1-3weeks] Spotted By: Exmouth79 (No Position Held)
BAS - (Oil/Gas in the Otway and Gippsland Basins) Recently broke out above a key short term resistance area at 2.4c on the 6 month chart with volume. I have seen BUY & SUR breakout from the lows 2's through the mid 2's to power along to the 3c-4c level SUR almost went to 5c (Mcap: $8.5m) Click here to see more info and chart Spotted By: Strauss (No Position Held)
FAS - (Iron Ore, Uranium) Has been in down trend since mid February and has broken up out of that downtrend with volume on Friday. May retrace back to the top side of that down trend to find support before rallying upwards. (Mcap: $23m) Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)
NGE - (Oil/Gas in PNG) Has spiked and retraced on reducing volume which has produced a flag pattern. Entry would be on break to the upside of the flag with volume, target being the length of the original flag pole. (Mcap: $54.5m) Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)
OBL - (Oil/Gas Canning Basin) Stock hit a high of 10c at the end of March and has been in retrace since then. Pulling back to the approx 50% retrace level. Volume has dropped off almost in a straight line since that time. Trading is now extremely light showing that the free float of tradable stock at this level may be gone. Possible break up is imminent.(Mcap: $29.1m) Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)
NMG - (Gold Producer Ghana Africa) Friday saw solid buying come back in...Last two candlestick have formed a bullish reversal pattern.. Indicators way oversold, so if this does move, plenty of room to the upside... Latest broker report has 93 cent price target... Gaps- there has been some down gaps formed and if you know how gaps work, as up gaps get closed, so do down gaps on a reversal.. (Mcap: $162m) Spotted By: Demontrader (Position Held)
AJX - (Producer of Flame retardant/chemical& biological surface treatment). Broken above solid resistance of 0.10 on well above average volume. A short term target in the mid teens (Mcap: $18.4m) Spotted By: 3500 (Position Held)
MIX - (Industrial Property in the US) Large ascending Triangle dating back to Sept 2011 has broken to the upside. Moved above 0.10 after a long period of consolidation. Hesitating at a 3 year high of 0.11. 0.15 is a reasonable short term target (Mcap: $36.2m) Spotted By: 3500 (Position Held)
API - (Pharmaceuticals). Recent yearly high of 0.41c. Testing strong resistance of 0.40 on heavy volume. Will likely move to 0.50 which is another roadblock. (Mcap: $195m) Spotted By: 3500 (Position Held)
SUR - (Oil Producer Explorer, Multiple projects in US,OZ (WA),NW Europe, Thailand, Malta) Base forming pattern for over 12 months with a ceiling of 0.03 which was broken decisively on the heaviest volume ever. Might retrace to 0.035 which offers a low risk entry. (Mcap: $47.5m) Spotted By: 3500 (Position Held)
QPN - (Oil/Gas Sumatra Indonesia) Strong rally approx a week ago followed by retrace and strong support entering which has driven back upwards. Purchase on break to a new short term high with volume. (Mcap: $22.5m) Spotted by: Freehold (Position Held)
NWR - (Au/Antimony Exploration) Classic "Bull Flag" setup here with heavy volume on the spike and decreasing volume on the retrace. Entry on a break above the flag with volume and expectation are a rally of similar length to the original flag pole. (Mcap: $25.6m) Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)
MOX - (Graphite) had a bit of a following a month or so ago but also had a big seller around at 5 cents which put a cap on price rise, have been watching for a while and usually 5 cents would get sold into but maybe seller seems exhausted as 5 cents doesn’t get sold into like before, news in the next couple of weeks could see a move up (MCap:$8.6m) Spotted By: Furniture (Position Held)
