HI Golden, I will second your motion that Dan is embarrassingly well versed in the markets! He deserve's a heart just for the effort he has given to your reply!
In response to your question this commentary makes a lot of sense to me...Tim Treadgold is the author...
It Basicly says that gold is fine until interest rates rise....With Caution due from September this year. In the meantime enjoy the dividends!
"The more likely immediate outlook for gold is a push back towards $US2000/oz thanks to worldwide market volatility coupled with fear of inflation caused by excess government monetary stimulus.
While there is a valid case to see gold regaining demand in the short term, especially as cryptocurrencies lose some of their appeal, the long-term reality is that gold faces ever-stiffer headwinds especially as the era of negative interest rates fade and gold is exposed as a metal with zero yield in its bullion form.
Morgan Stanley said its strategists expect the U.S. central bank to reveal a plan for asset purchase “tapering” in September “with tapering itself kicking off from next April”.Those events, will play into the theme of rising interest rates and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar which would put pressure on gold
Morgan Stanley also sees the risk of a sharper gold sell off “similar to that seen in 2013 once tapering begins in 2022”. In that case the gold price falls to a support level of $US1600/oz. But the reference to 2013 is a sobering reminder for gold bugs who might be inclined to ignore the lessons of history and the power of rising U.S. interest rates.In August 2011, as the last effects of the 2008 GFC were being absorbed by financial markets, gold was selling for $US1877 (not far from where it is today) with the 10-year U.S. bond rate at 1.7 per cent.By the end of 2013, the 10-year bond had almost doubled to 3 per cent and gold had plunged by 36 per cent to $US1199/oz – and then struggled to rise above $US1250/oz for the next six years."
