short term trading week starting - 3rd feb

Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 3h Feb 2014 (No. 100)
Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).

Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!



Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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AGS - Uranium gold Australia,

3/02/2014

Market cap 55 million cash in bank 22,650,000 own 20% of ors who recently made a nice gold discovery at Maldon Construction commenced at the Four Mile project during the quarter. In situ recovery mining commencing April 2014 First uranium sales scheduled for July 2014 On 31 January 2014 (post-reporting) Alliance announced that Quasar, with ACE dissenting, approved the Four Mile (ML6402) Revised Start-Up Plan and Program and Budget on 29 January 2014. The Revised Start-Up Plan and Program and Budget includes production guidance relating to the current or forthcoming year based on as series of assumptions
Poster: Vogliobene (STT Accuracy: 38.5% - Ranking No.14 )
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(Mcap:$59.7m)

BCT - Technology and BioTechnology stock,

3/02/2014

Market Cap $7m at 6c with $1m cash. Stock has fallen to all time lows and is trading at about 1/4th its 2 year avg price. Company has failed to achieve sales for its breakthrough MEMS technology which was the main reason IMO for the drop. To address this situation there's been a corporate shake up with CEO/MD who was also a Co Founder stepping down as well as the head of sales""a lot of hard work went into getting product ready for launch last year and it would be an understatement to say that the Board is extremely disappointed with the sales performance in 2013.We are taking immediate action to redress this situation and are confident that Bluechip is in a strong position to generate sales in 2014.""The current board have made several commitments to achieving sales "We will focus urgently on (i)securing sales.... and (ii)reviewing our distributor arrangements in the USA which have to date, not produced the expected results.”"Importantly the Company has also begun to implement a number of actions and initiatives to
achieve its sales targets.""In reviewing the company’s liquidity and cash flow, the directors note that the company, a) expects receipts from customers over the coming months from the commencement of sales orders;"If they can deliver on their promises this could be an amazing turnaround story as the market is red hot for MEMS plays especially after PSYs amazing run
Poster: Strauss© (STT Accuracy: 42.6% - Ranking No.9 )
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(Mcap:$7m)

HAZ - Ferrotunsgten processor out of Vietnam,

30/01/2014

Market cap $45m, SP 3.8c, 1Bn shares, 500 optionsFY13 sales to date $20m from approx 500T of sales. CY 2014 planning a total of 1500T of sales, with plant now proven at 22T per day and margin targets of $5-$8 Kg to convert tungsten to Fe W. Historical margins converting W to FeW are circa $8-$10 Kg. Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway unit IMC International Metalworking agreed to invest $80M in a different tungsten project in South Korea a few years ago, this provides me with some confidence in this market given significant majority portion of global feedstock originates from China. CY15 target for HAZ 2000Tand the next quarterly should provide an accurate cost base. Other benefits include low labour cost ex Vietnam, solid upstream distribution channel with Wogen onboard for global sales. ST Risk in that capital may be diverted to downstream HAZ owned Tungsten mine supply, with usual capital draining risks, potentially offset by reduced feedstock prices. Longer term, could see 10 cents out of this if free cash
flows are banked.Not sure 25% upside will come in 4 weeks, but I've taken the punt that MC will get up this year...
Poster: 383hq (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$40.5m)

AUQ - Zinc/Copper in Middle East,

29/01/2014

MC $17mCash, somewhere between $6-8m at this point i think. Sorry to be unimaginative, but there's only a few weeks left till His Royal Highness intervenes and officiates the long awaited mother of all JVs, with anticipated revised equity commitment terms making the project more profitable for Alara, while retaining their full exposure to 50% of $2b anticipated revenue. Newsflow is supposedly lined up like ducks waiting to be rolled out as soon as this landmark agreement is signed. both the prince and the MD have 15c performance options riding on this outcome. expecting to see a gap up to those levels in anticipation of pending developments with off take partners and other funding sources
Poster: Mowibble (STT Accuracy: 76.9% - Ranking No.1 )
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(Mcap:$23m)

RGU - Uranium in Australia,

28/01/2014

SP - $0.025 Market cap - $1.7 million Cash ~ $700,000No Debt*A very out-of-favour sector showing signs of a 2014 rebound.*High quality management for a nanocap. Includes former President of the Federal Liberal Party and former Chief Minister of the Northern Territory - Shane Stone. Also includes managing director of the Transcontinental Group of companies - Simon Trevisan.*Hand-picked scientifically targeted uranium exploration portfolio. Of particular interest is the Paroo Range Project in close proximity to Paladin's "Skal" and "Valhalla" deposits.*About 70 million shares on issue, with the Top 20 holding 80% of the stock. Katana Capital have become a recent substantial shareholder (#2) for what appears to be the long-term.*Possibility exists for a project acquisition with minimal dilution to deliver near term shareholder value.
Poster: Verce (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$1.7m)

MBE - Mobile coms products and services,

28/01/2014

Mobile Embrace Limited: is a business-to-business and business-to-consumer provider of an integrated mobile and digital communications products and services. Australia, USA & Asia. Revenue from their Overseas expansion should have built up quickly during January 2014 and I would expect an update around mid February if that was the case. This should give the share price a good kick up. Guidance on the December quarterly and half year results could also be released shortly.
Poster: RetiredYoung (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$96.9m)

CAF - Financial Services Company,

28/01/2014

Centrepoint alliance’s-$0.36C Market cap-$34 mill. Centrepoint Alliance Limited operates as a non institutionally-owned financial services company in Australia and internationally. It primarily funds insurance premiums for corporate and retail clients, as well as is involved in asset finance operations. The company also offers financial advice and investment product solutions; and funds management, investment platform. Backing CAF as a turnaround after past legacy issues with the highly regarded John de Zwalt leading the turnaround story. Have large offsets on books including taxable income of $39 mill before paying tax and $29 mill of franking credits. Upcoming HY will certainly indicate if the transformation of CAF is gathering pace.
Poster: Ormond (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$33.7m)

BUR - Oil and Gas,

28/01/2014

Burleson is in the energy sector and is in discussions with third parties for the development of the Heintschel Field which has so far been beset by excess water problems. Consultants DeGoyler and MacNaughton found that the Heintschel field contains 2P reserves of 34 bcf gas and 1 mmb condensate (6.7 million barrels of oil equivalent mmboe), based on three wells and an area of ~900 acres. Burleson’s share is 2.5 mmboe net to its 38% working interest and 2 mmboe net to its ~30% net revenue interest. Burleson and the AKG (the operator) believe the total field (which covers 4460 acres) contains 100 to 160 bcf of gas plus condensate. BUR’s NRI share in these cases would be 5 to 10 mmboe. (This is a lot of money to a company with a $5m market cap) n addition to the Heintschel field development opportunity, in the September Quarterly they advised that the Joann 1 well was about to be restarted and when squeezed off it was flowing at 1040 mcf and 42 barrels of condensate. The recent production update confirmed 5 well s in operation but they omitted to confirm the production rates from Joann. This will have to be disclosed in the Quarterly report due out by the end of the week and it seems it could give Burleson a bit of a lift. The market is still valuing Burleson on four wells and not the five in operation and so there is a chance to expect a re-rating once the information comes out. So short term there are two chances for re-rating. 1. from the production rates from the restarted Joann well2. more significantly from the partner announcement for the development of the Heintschel field Director buying and T20 buying suggests that this stock has some upside and it represents both a STT opportunity and something which can be held in the bottom drawer for a rainy day.
Poster: Markeewan (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$5.5m)

CGU - Gold in Peru,

24/01/2014

C: 1.5 million share price 0.025shares on issue: about 60 million only cash: between 500000 and 80000025% share in Mollehuaca gold processing plant in Peru. plant ready for first production after refurbishment. High grade ore up to 454g/t slow and steady business model with as little as possible dilution for share holders. first production will be about 10000 ounces per year and increase to about 17000 ounces the year after.net return for the first year to cgu about 1 million profit exciting ground in Australia as well in the Lachlan ford belt hosting several high grade gold deposits. one of cgu's tenements is the old BHP Cowarra goldmine with grades between 10-16 g/t which closed down in the 80th due to low gold price. Directors getting paid in shares for 4 cent, nearly double of the share price atm. big sign of confidence on behalf of the directors. Announcement due any day now to start production in Peru. Brilliant geology team with good track history. Expecting at least a 100% return in short term
Poster: Hedrox (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$0.9m)

ABU - Gold in the NT,

21/01/2014

Just finished trial mining 10g/t nuggetty gold at surface in central NT. Looks like grade is much better than expected, maybe total costs will come in at about $700 an ounce, cash costs about $500.Price mover will be continuing POG recovery and issue of Mining License. FUNDED TO MINING !All up they have about 3.5 million ounces of which 700k ounces is grading better than 10g/t FROM SURFACE - just a stunning story
Poster: V8 (STT Accuracy: 34.5% - Ranking No.15 )
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(Mcap:$91.9m)

PRU - Gold in Turkey,

20/01/2014

Debts free, operated in turkey, current all in cost is about $400-500, current EV equals about 2 years of mining return.
Poster: Littlecorn (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$176.3m)

PAN - Nickel and gold,

20/01/2014

No yet spike yet, not sure about today though. current EV probably equals to 1 year of nickel mining at current US price.
Poster: Littlecorn (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$76.6m)

SBN - Biotech,

20/01/2014

Sun Biomedical Market Cap - $4M @ $1.6M in cash. Should have just done a deal, negotiations of which were due to finish 15/01/14.
Poster: LastoftheMohicans (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$3.6m)

GRR - Iron in Tassie and WA,

20/01/2014

Tip courtesy of the GRR thread with an outstanding summary and trigger of quarterly with a market that will clearly wake up soon.......Cash at 30 Sep = $138.6mPellet Production = 446937t Sales = 536503tPrice = $145.87 Revenue = $78.26mInventory = 181778t. Cash at 31 Dec = $159.9m Dividend Payment = -$11.6m. Pellet production = 619414tSales = 594291tPrice = $161.42Revenue = $95.93mInventory = 235452t Change in Cash position = 159.9 + 11.6 - 138.6 = $32.9m Total Expenses = 95.93 - 32.9 = $63mTotal cost per production unit = AUD $101.75got an extra 50kt in inventory build-up worth an extra $8.5m The lack of interest is amazing, over $40m in profit for the quarter against a market cap of $272m which is $160m cash backed. Annualising this quarter's profit gets you $160m profit against an EV of $112m... unbelievable. Taking the opportunity Divi payer around 10% at current price and speculated to increase
Poster: BrookeCE (STT Accuracy: 14.3% - Ranking No.20 )
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(Mcap:$312.3m)

GTE - Copper,Gold & Nickel in Kazakhstan and Australia,

17/01/2014

No Of Shares on Issue : 131 million (46% held by top 20)Market Cap : 13.75 million GTE is basically a Copper, Gold & Nickel exploration company with multiple projects in Kazakhstan and Australia. Currently exploring Copper in Kazakhstan with 50:50 JV agreement with Kazak Government ( State owned enterprise ) and GTE. Maiden JORC will come out in first quarter of 2014. So far the copper exploration results are one of the best sets I have seen in a long time. They also have a JV agreement with WSA ( WSA earning 70%) to explore Nickel project in Australia. I have a conservative price target of 35 to 40 cents by end of first quarter of 2014.
Poster: Vkumar (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$13.1m)

PTL - Consumer Goods,

14/01/2014

3.1c$51 million cap$5.5 million cash$13.5 million debt Net Profit after Tax this year was $1.9 million - $1.7 million higher than the November 2012 Prospectus forecast. The result includes all restructuring and closure costs. Total borrowings decreased by $49 million to$13.5 million. Gearing level at year end was 22.1% (2012: 148.2%). Has a number of established brands
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.9% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$53.8m)

CIR - Biotech Cancer drug development and eye disease treatment,

14/01/2014

For a biotech, pretty damn cheap -$10 million cap$9 million in cash plus 2.2 million in listed shares Control over 400 patents Key therapeutic development partnering events expected during 2014Commercial partnerships already in place with:- Eli Lilly: Developing IMC-3C5, a cancer treatment, with Im Clone, a subsidiary of Eli Lilly (Eli Lilly makes Prozac, amongst other things)- Merck Millipore - Healthscope: Developed Cup Guide, a molecular diagnostic for cancers of unknown primary origin, already on sale with orders and revenue to ramp up this year following oncologist education- Perkin Elmer- Bio-rad- Ark Therapeutics Ongoing royalty streams of $550k pa increasing to $1 million pa from this year Collaborations with:– Harvard– UCLA– CSIRO– Ludwig Institute of Cancer Research– University of Helsinki– Peter Maccallum Cancer Institute– Centre for Eye Research Australia New licensing deal announced this morning with Selexis Cancer inhibition technology/methodology I can actually understand:
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.9% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$10.5m)

AYG - Software & Services Sector,

13/01/2014

Anittel provides Cloud, Internet, Telecommunication and IT services for organisation across regional and metropolitan Australia. The company is expanding through organic growth and targeted acquisitions to offer scale, geographic reach and expertise for existing and prospective customers MC = $12.8mShares Outstanding = 2.6bn Current SP = 0.006 Debt = Approx. $10m Company is in the MSPmentor Top 501 - Number 21Launched in February 2013, the MSPmentor 501 is a global ranking of the world's top 501 managed services providers. ST Price catalysts : - Finalisation of transaction with BGL (by 31 Jan) - including announcement of detailed terms with regard to distribution agreement.- Increases in revenue/profit resulting from PWC strategic review (Quarterly due by end Jan) - Potential for further significant transaction announcements resulting from PWC review- Potential further large contract announcements
Poster: Rexhunt (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$12.8m)

NGY - Coal bed methan in Indonesia,

13/01/2014

Indonesian CBM play with a distinguished board. Short term production cash-flow and expected farmin partner. First more in East Africa CBM .Capital raising complete with Board members stumping up cash...
Poster: Lucky7Country (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$8.2m)

CZD - Health/Biotech,

13/01/2014

I hate goldies, always keep me awake in the even, but I think it is their turn now, and PRU should be the leader in producing without debts.
Poster: Littlecorn (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$30.8m)

CZD - Health/Biotech,

13/01/2014

30Mil MC 6Mil cash The company product: heals late stage burn injury. one of its product TNP is await for FDA 510k approval due in Jan, and second product BTM is to submit app for FDA 510k this month as well. so a lot to look forward to in a short term, look for EV somewhere around $70Mil.
Poster: Littlecorn (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$30.8m)

FNT - Copper, silver, gold in PNG,

13/01/2014

1c$2 million cap$200k cash$3 million net assets Owns 2 diamond drilling rigs - a fair bit of the market cap right there. Looks like everyone that wanted to sell has sold: Andewa project:1km at 0.1g/t gold590m at 0.11g/t gold and 0.07% copper Large, prospective area remaining to be drilled - distance between existing drill holes is between 3km and 750m.Previously in JV with NCM until they withdrew last year. Sudest Project: Gold in drainage anomalies over a 45km strike - Frontier are pursuing high grade gold exploration targets: Trenching samples found 2m at 21.71g/t, 2m at 39.85g/t, 2m at 22.34g/t, peak assay of 62.8g/t gold. Another 10,250km2 copper-gold porphyry project in 50-50 joint venture on the island of New Britain.JV with Torque Mining and BCD Resources to develop the Stormont gold deposit in Tasmania. Torgue is supporting FNT's cashflow requirements. Directors have 150 years combined mining experience.
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.9% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$1.9m)

COJ - Online advertising, integrated media solutions, online job boards.,

13/01/2014

4c$800k market cap$6.5 million revenue$325k net profit ($215k from R & D refund) $3.9 million debt$450k cash Obviously its the debt that is keeping it so cheap, but their lenders are happy with operations, as its is in the middle of a big turnaround: Consolidated profit after income tax was $325,208 - this is compared to the 2012 loss of over $8.5 million. EBITDA from continuing operations of $1 million, with successful performance across all business areas. The major development in the online business was the launch of a new jobs board platform. The new platform is designed to accelerate growth, by increasing traffic to the websites, increasing connectivity with advertisers and allowing CommStrat to launch partnerships with other job board publishers. Government Technology Review was the best performing title with 17% revenue growth. This upturn in performance enabled the extension of the NAB loan agreement by 18 months, until 30 September 2014, reflecting NAB's ongoing confidence in the direction of the business.Has fallen over 98% from a few years ago, formed a low and is now rising consistently, albeit on the low volume you'd expect from a sub-$1 million market cap:
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.9% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$0.8m)

SOC - Gold in NSW,

13/01/2014

Fundamentals are good, plenty of funded drilling happening and also SOC owns 80% of PMR which is also well funded for drilling [PMR last week announced some good, though still early, drill results ..37.2 metres at an average grade of 8.7% zinc, 3.0% lead, 1.4% copper and 85 g/t (2.8 oz/t) silver, over 4 bands] 2 things of note* Last week a broker took 5.6% interest in SOC @ 18 cents [although a 2 cent premium to the trading price at the time, SOC is mildly illiquid so they could not have gotten the stock any cheaper for that volume]. According to 'vontrader' who watches this stock like a hawk, management tells him there are plans for a roadshow in the works.* Christmas has meant there has been a delay in reporting the assays for the drilling underway at the moment. Who knows with results, but if they turn up something good it should do something nice for the price. They reported 'bonanza' grades in one drill hole a couple of months back.
Poster: Dazedandconfused (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$22.2m)

NME - Mineral Exploration,

10/01/2014

Currently 2cJust under $3m market cap, $2.5m coming from sale of a prospect. Cash backing style company. Believe it's undervalued!!
Poster: RainMakerFaker (STT Accuracy: 10.5% - Ranking No.22 )
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(Mcap:$3.8m)

Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects
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PTL - Consumer Goods,

14/01/2014

Chart is so good it doesn’t really need any explanation, but freehold wont let me have it otherwise so here is my basic take: for about 6 months or more there have been persistent 2-3 million unit sellers at 2.8, 2.9, 3c.been watching and waiting until someone cleaned them out which they did today in the space of an hour or so. Price now broken out of 3c resistance after long consolidation obv has barely wavered during this accumulation phase - which is how you know it is an accumulation phase. price sitting firmly above 34 day moving average now for the first time since the big initial breakout
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.9% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$53.8m)

CIR - Biotech Cancer drug development and eye disease treatment,

14/01/2014

Charts look just about ready for a reversal- long term chart looks floored short term turning up with good OBV. See chart in Link
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.9% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$10.5m)

AGX - Biotech,

13/01/2014

Starting to build in strength under the 200 DEMA 2 previous attempts to get is head above that level, third time lucky will prove the case if volume follows through next week. Closed on Thurs/Friday on good volume above the 50 DAY average. That 50% gap above from approx. 5-7c looks tempting......maybe a target for another trade!? See charts in Link
Poster: Pilsner (STT Accuracy: 40% - Ranking No.10 )
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(Mcap:$3.2m)

CZN - Minerals exploration Gibson Desert,

13/01/2014

Talk of "sleepers" and "RMX style runs" this week got me looking for an example to try and put forward for the benefit of the discussion of a basing pattern with a bullish divergence. Case in point, Corazon. I honestly don't know much about the merits of their assets, but i know that they hold some good ground with massive sulphides. i believe they are waiting on some sort of assay results, but the delays are not encouraging. On the other hand, both RSI and Momentum are rising while the share price is basing, which to me indicates that people are quietly buying in anticipation of something. whether this translates to a positive ST trade remains to be seen, but in the context of the discussion that was being had, if i was going to buy a "sleeper", this one has a lot going for it, with solid support, a bit of cash, a lucrative bit of land for speculation, etc.Mr 5%, if you are reading the thread, i am not recommending this as a buy and hold per se, i would first be getting in touch with directors to try and get a feel for the company. But at the risk of diluting my new found seat in the hall of fame, i am putting this one out there as a demonstration of what i would be looking for technically in a chart. if this one does breakout on news, it would probably fly off the handle, (along with my ranking:) probably to somewhere near 7c on the other hand, it may just go sideways for another few months, as the bullish divergence may be nothing more than blind speculation from retail clients.
Poster: Mowibble (STT Accuracy: 76.9% - Ranking No.1 )
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(Mcap:$5.6m)

FNT - Copper, silver, gold in PNG,

13/01/2014

Has come down over 98% in price, from 40c to a low of .005c, formed a solid base with buying support and started moving back up. Price fell 98% on bugger all volume, the a bit of a price/volume spike today. Rounded bottom/saucer forming on shorter term chart with rising OBV
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.9% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$1.9m)

COJ - Online advertising, integrated media solutions, online job boards.,

13/01/2014

4c$800k market cap$6.5 million revenue$325k net profit ($215k from R & D refund) $3.9 million debt$450k cash. Has been rising consistently enough to now be stabilising around fresh 12 month highs, on higher volume than its seen in a long time
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.9% - Ranking No.3 )
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(Mcap:$0.8m)

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Links to Previous Weeks Lists

No.99:: FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 6th Jan) - Click HERE

No.98: FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 30th Dec) - Click HERE

No.97: FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 23rd Dec) - Click HERE