Short term the market is beginning to look somewhat extended &...

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Krayz23

530 Posts.

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08/11/18

12:01

Post #: 36431489
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Originally posted by Freehold ↑

Originally posted by Freehold

I concur... expecting several weeks minimum if minor correction 10% is what we are getting.... and few months if a wholesale collapse ie 30-50% down. Usually these things take a breather (sideways or slightly up) for 5 to 10 days before next big leg down and so the pattern will repeat until we bottom out. Hence moving averages are a good and clear indicator here. I use a 10 and 30d EMA on the daily indicies charts when the 10 cross above the 30 then usually we are done. Although if US DJIA, SP500 RUT and TRAN cross below their 200d SMA then officially in bear market IMO.

Worst case scenario is a slowly declining market which drags on ...on ... slowly ...if we are to sell down then selloff hard and quickly because its quickly and its over and done with and we can resume normal trading.

All in the STT Library. If your twiddling your thumbs waiting then perhaps a good use of time is a reread it.

Originally posted by Freehold (25 Oct)

World market action seems to be playing pretty close to what I expected 2 weeks ago in this post above with 5 to 10 days between down legs... Fairly A typical for sharp corrections IMO ... For those not experiencing one before I would not move until the 10d ema has crossed back up above the 30 EMA on the US SP500 and & DJIA. The more aggressive types may move on the 10d EMA starting to rise.

On the +ive side we are just about out of the dangerous Oct selling period ...but given the US Election in early Nov you'd expect uncertainty at least till then.

Well we are nearly out of correction danger (Nearly) .

The 10D EMA (on SP500, DJIA , RUT and TRAN) started moving uplast week (was the entry signal for aggressive traders) and the 30d EMA has turned flat or slightly up today so trading green light for moderate traders. However the 10d EMA has not crossed the 30 EMA yet and could yet still turn down possibly IMHO. So conservative investors should still have the $$ parked.

Also of concern is that we are still travelling below the 200d SMA on all charts which is the rule of thumb whether we are in an overall bear market or not. Below 200d sma then bear market, above then bull. Expect some sideways uncertainty as we approach the 200 SMA until it is unambiguously crossed above or bounced off to the downside.

US election uncertainty is over so macro story wise all good for now until Trump does something unorthodox again that is.

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Short term the market is beginning to look somewhat extended & due for a bit of a pullback/consolidation imo. How it consolidates it’s gains/reacts to a few negative days will be rather telling and will reveal a lot about the underlying strength of the market.

XAO Value at posting: 6,021.4
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0 Great analysis

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