Short Term Trading Week Starting - 5th Jan, page-5

Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 5th Jan 2015 (No. 147)
Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).

Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!

Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects

NEU - Pharmaceuticals [5/01/2015]
Neuren Pharmaceuticals have a medicinal compound which has exceptional qualities in a variety of brain function issues. The US Dept of Defence is backing trials for its use in mild and severe concussion, a completely unmet need. It has also shown very good effect in Autism spectre genetic disease. The recent trial in Fragile X Syndrome was outstanding and has prompted the company to apply for breakthrough and orphan status. The result of this application is due within two months and the market has already moved twenty percent since news. There could and should be more gains.
Poster: J8 (STT Accuracy: 44.4% - Ranking No.8 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14533619/single (Mcap: $214.5m)


TIS - Biotech - Tissue Therapies [5/01/2015]
Tissue Therapies have had endless beauracracy issues trying to gain EU marketing approval for their game changing venous ulcer treatment. As with all game changers', the establishment tries very hard to make things difficult. No treatment exists other than theirs and the trial results show this works a treat. It's so disruptive that they have spent years arguing whether it's a device or a medicine. Anyway, I digress..... The final hurdle to approval is now less than sixty days away and the market is warming to them again. This is a stock which can really get a move on. Approval will see a massive spike and a CR to get them a US Clinical trial and possible breakthrough designation into the future
Poster: J8 (STT Accuracy: 44.4% - Ranking No.8 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14533619/single (Mcap: $81.6m)


BLT - Biotech Pharmaceutical [5/01/2015]
Benitec have worldwide rights to ddRNAi Gene Silencing. Their first in man trial, a one shot cure for Hepatitis C, is expected to get approval to move to the next level of dosing. If they can get this approval and dose the next cohort in a timely manner then the market will forgive the delays of the past
Poster: J8 (STT Accuracy: 44.4% - Ranking No.8 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14533619/single (Mcap: $111.2m)


AGO - Iron Ore [in WA] [1/01/2015]
Market cap $152m Cash on 30/09/14: $205m Gross debt: A$330m Annual production: 12.5Mt - 13Mt (13Mt - 15Mt late 2015) November all in cash cost including freight: A$65/t Break even spot price: US$68/t. If spot price at US$75/t, AGO will make $75m EBITDA p.a. If spot price at US$82/t, AGO will make $150m EBITDA p.a According to a recent Chinese research report, most of China's miners production cost is over US$80/t, they also quoted US$20 for RIO, US$30 for FMG. I suspect US$80 for Chinese miners are just cash cost, would be much higher than US$80/t. RIO, all in cash cost is approx. $42/t. I saw some other sources stated China's miners' production cost over $100/t. That probably would be all in cash cost. Iron ore stocks had a bad year in 2014 with blood all over the street, lost over 85% value for most iron ore stocks. During GFC, we also witnessed similar value diminishing within few months, BUT recovered strongly from January 2009 when spot price hit new low at that time of US58/t, world seemed doomed, also AUD was hitting low 60c, doomsayers all over the media just similar as what happened now. When blood is all over the street, it's time to buy! FA, we all knew big four iron ore companies lift their production approx 100Mt. But high cost miners closure got less mentioned. I found few sources stated closed high cost production would be around 200Mt. According to a Chinese research report, most of Chinese production cost are over US$80/t, equivalent A$99/t. Also noted most of Chinese iron ores are low grade. The report suggested China would need to import over 90% of its iron ore demand of over 800Mt p.a. The demand is expected to increase by 35Mt for 2015 calendar year. India was one of the exploring iron ore countries, now becomes importing one. Depressed spot price have already forced over 75% miners closed production. India would import 45Mt over next 3 years
Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 40% - Ranking No.10 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14524650/single (Mcap: $211.5m)


SLR - Gold producing and exploration company [in Western Australia] [31/12/2014]
Market Cap: $93M Announcement released yesterday (29/12/14) entitled 'Silver Lake raises A$10M by way of Gold Prepayment'. -> CBA have provided SLR with $10M which will be used for working capital. CBA will be provided 7,056.31 ounces of gold between January 2015 and July 2016. There are some additional provisions of gold mentioned in the announcement. This will provide some capital for current projects.
Poster: Ibza (STT Accuracy: 31.2% - Ranking No.13 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14520418/single (Mcap: $98.1m)


AGO - Iron Ore [in WA] [31/12/2014]
Once the market darling who have rejected many takeovers even at $5 is now trading at 15c. Yes prices of IO has killed the whole sector but I think AGO is a buy at these prices at least for STT. What makes it attractive? With strong cost cuts, increasing production every quarter and relief in royalty by WA Gov makes it production costs attractive and perhaps profitable if the prices of IO stays above 72-75$ (my estimate which can be wrong), however, according to AGO (recent presentation): All-in cash costs of AUD$66-67/wmt CFR China September/October and trending down. And the price of IO is trending up now in $70s. If it can hold here, AGO can make multi bags from these levels. Not for faint hearts though, high risk v reward. Even the brokers who are calling it a sell value it almost double the current prices.
Poster: Forrestfield© (STT Accuracy: 57.7% - Ranking No.4 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14520545/single (Mcap: $211.5m)


IWG - Internet Security [30/12/2014]
Market cap $95 million Cash $5 million+ Share price 17cIWG's tech creates compartmentalised networks which are invisible to potential malicious attackers, sort of like company intranets but iwg's virtual networks can be turned on and off with ease and minimal cost
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.1% - Ranking No.5 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14516580/single (Mcap: $0m)


SWE - Oil and Gas [29/12/2014]
MC ; $14m SP ; 9c SWE has recently come out of a voluntary suspension and is now caught in a death spiral fuelled by a failed SPP, a crappy oil and gas outlook, a failure by management to perform much of anything and disgruntled holders selling it. I used to own this stock a long time ago and had high hopes for it so it pains me to see it where it is now. SWE needs to pull a rabbit out of it's hat and fast or this is going to become a real penny dreadful. Unfortunately, i think the latter is going to happen first. If its partner decides to pull support due to the current OG market outlook....it will get very messy from here.
Poster: Deltatrader (STT Accuracy: 34.6% - Ranking No.12 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14506814/single (Mcap: $10.8m)


PXS - Biotech [29/12/2014]
MC : $30m SP ; .115 Pharmaxis (ASX: PXS) today announced it has entered into an exclusive distribution and supply agreement with global pharmaceutical company Chiesi Farmaceutici for the commercialisation of Bronchitol® (mannitol) in the United States. Under the terms of the commercialisation agreement Chiesi is responsible for funding up to US$22 million of the cost of the phase 3 clinical trial of Bronchitol which recently enrolled its first patient. Subject to approval in the United States, Bronchitol will be sold as part of Chiesi’s cystic fibrosis portfolio which includes Bethkis®(tobramycin inhalation solution) and Pertzye® (pancrelipase) delayed-release capsules, both launched in the US earlier this year. Milestones totaling up to US$25 million are payable tied to the launch of Bronchitol, and on achieving certain annual sales levels. This stock has just been massively de-risked and has been trading a lot higher than this on a lot less. No need for CR. I would say when REAL traders return from the xmas
break and the news gets out properly...this will head north nicely
Poster: Deltatrader (STT Accuracy: 34.6% - Ranking No.12 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14506283/single (Mcap: $45m)


E88 - E-commerce in Asia [24/12/2014]
Share price 7.4c Market cap $30 million Cash $7 million Debt free. Revenue from last 2 months alone was $30 million, same as market cap, and this was cash flow positive revenue Raised cash recently at 45c, was 68c not too long ago Cutting costs with staff reductions and streamlining software platform
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.1% - Ranking No.5 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14503898/single (Mcap: $38.3m)


WLC - Coal Producer [NSW ] [23/12/2014]
SP - 2c MC - $137M Cash - $12.9M Several negative factors have contributed to a fall in WLC sp, revenue has been down substantially over the last 6 months, coal price only partly a factor. Most of these problems seem to be in the past. The worst is hopefully over.
Poster: Marty386 (STT Accuracy: 15.4% - Ranking No.18 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14494828/single (Mcap: $133.1m)


HRR - Nickel, gold, and base metals [ in Australia] [23/12/2014]
SP - 13c MC - $47M Cash - $31M High grade / high value deposit Established Mineral Resources & Ore Reserves High grade underground and advanced tailings project Granted mining lease and project approvals in place Excellent infrastructure: road, rail, power, water Post Heron/TriAusMin merger plan implemented Woodlawn drilling & PEA - underway Program to deliver BFS for combined Woodlawn Underground and Tailings Projects Fully funded - cash $31 million (30 Sep) Commodities with Strong Fundamentals Zinc market in supply deficit with declining inventories Significant mine supply scheduled to close Strong pricing forecast for next several years Quality Project Inventory Lachlan Fold Belt, NSW projects: Lewis Ponds, Overflow, Calarie – Zn + Cu + Pb + Ag + Au Kalgoorlie Nickel Project, WA: Substantial nickel exposure Recent Assay Results: Woodlawn High Grade Assays and New Massive Sulphide Intercepts Assay Results: WNDD0006: 5.6m @ 13.3% Zn, 0.7% Cu, 5.4% Pb, 1.2g/t Au, 26g/t Ag from 626m (I Lens) WNDD0006: 4.0m @
4.8% Zn, 0.5% Cu, 0.2% Pb, 14g/t Ag from 679m (I Lens) WNDD0006: 8.1m @ 3.0% Zn, 2.3% Cu, 3.1% Pb, 2.6g/t Au, 68.8g/t Ag from 699m (D Lens) New Significant Sulphide Intercepts: WNDD0011: 6.0m massive sulphides from 348m (Kate Lens) WNDD0012: 4.8m massive sulphides from 135m (E Lens) WNDD0013: 6.0m massive sulphides from 76m (G Lens)
Poster: Jeans_sammy (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14496609/single (Mcap: $45.1m)


ZIP - Telecommunications [Based in Australia] [22/12/2014]
Mcap 20.1m, Price 27c, recent $5m placement so has cash, ZipTel will launch its long awaited Viop/text mobile App called ZIPT on Monday which is expected to allow unsurpassed voice over 2g networks. Primarily being promoted in 3rd world countries who mostly have 2g subscribers... Purported to be the best and cleanest voice app on 2g on the market by Mgmt and some mgmt sponsored independent tests (Surpassing 2g offerings by Skype, Viber, WhatApp... allegedly). Expect some increased buying interest on this on Monday and early in the week. ... Pilot program has been expanded will include India, Mexico and Brazil from memory.. Users will be capped at 100k initially to assess load capability before being rolled out to millions via marketing deals already in place... Little company now but could go a long way (and I mean a long way) especially if market response to ZIPT app is favourable
Poster: Freehold© (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14491088/single (Mcap: $14.6m)


DUO - Copper/gold Doolgunna player plus pending tech acquisition [22/12/2014]
Cap $3.5 million Cash $3 million SP 008 Don’t recall a bigger no brainer since PSY @005 Raising funds at significant premium Obviously for a tech acquisition A: because implied, B: because they already have a great resource project Technically big volume buying for a shell - and big volume selling at strangely low prices But when $2 million worth of shares are being placed at a 40% premium, you know something special is in the works
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.1% - Ranking No.5 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14490316/single (Mcap: $1m)


NRT - Biotech - Cancer Treatments [19/12/2014]
212m shares and 32m options exercise price 15c Recent capital raise at 12.5c with free attaching options. Cash - 8.6m including recent capital raise 4.1m. Cantrixil - useful for abdominal cancer (multiple organs) and pleural cancers. Some cancers have palliative therapy only so if Cantrixil works for them, it will change the face of cancer treatment. Trilexium focusing on stem cells causing cancers. It is highly effective against Melanoma which is quite common skin cancer. There are hundreds of cancer therapies available in market which all controlled by major pharma companies. Most of them are only effective against well-known tumours but NRT drugs are effective against those cancers where there is no therapy available in the world. That is what makes NRT so unique and represents a multibag potential. Can Tx inc is a JV company between Novogen (85%) and Yale (15%). The only Australian Biotech to partner with a US Ivy League University.
Poster: Forrestfield© (STT Accuracy: 57.7% - Ranking No.4 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14483496/single (Mcap: $19.6m)


NRT - Biotech - Trialing Anticancer Drugs [18/12/2014]
SP ~23c MC - ~$30M Released an ANN about potential Melanoma drug, market liked the news, heavily bought up, big volumes. Word is the ANN didn’t carry that much substance hence SP may drop in short term. Look to see the big volume off load in the short term for nice profits, can't see too many people staying for the long haul, maybe some free carry along the way, but that's it.
Poster: Marty386 (STT Accuracy: 15.4% - Ranking No.18 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14473074/single (Mcap: $19.6m)




Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects

BLT - Dual listed Biotech [5/01/2015]
Share price circa 95c. Rallying from a bearish trend and driving the MACD above the signal line. Trading above the 20 day MA on medium volume. Bollinger’s are interesting, threatening to break out a few times in the past six months but reigned in. SP is pushing the top Bollinger. Not too bad for a down trending stock that has rallied from a low of 52c in early November. Stochastics are revealing a possible overbought situation exists but the OBV is still creeping up. A sustained move of twenty five percent could signal a further breakout and a return to uptrend.
Poster: J8 (STT Accuracy: 44.4% - Ranking No.8 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14534861/single (Mcap: $111.2m)


BCI - Iron Ore mining company [in Pilbara region of Western Australia] [5/01/2015]
Market Cap: $122M Current Price: $0.62 The downtrend has been broken as shown in the weekly chart below. The LT downtrend is still in play. However this stock is oversold and is ready to increase further. The RSI on the weekly chart is oversold and has started trending up. This indicates that there may be more sp increases. The sp increased 16.98% on Friday.
Poster: Ibza (STT Accuracy: 31.2% - Ranking No.13 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14534681/single (Mcap: $121.6m)


SDL - Iron ore exploration and development company in Central Africa [31/12/2014]
Market Cap: $74M, This has been on a downtrend and the ST downtrend is about to be broken. Stock is oversold on weekly chart with an RSI value of 25. Sp has started to increase over the last two days and the RSI is also beginning to trend up. The stock possibly will rebound in the short term. Investsmart say's it is a 'Strong Buy' as at 29/12/14. http://au.investsmart.com.au/shares/asx/Sundance-Resources-SDL.asp
Poster: Ibza (STT Accuracy: 31.2% - Ranking No.13 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14520447/single (Mcap: $77.1m)


SLR - Gold producing and exploration company [in Western Australia] [31/12/2014]
Market Cap: $93M The market seems to have viewed this announcement favourably and the share price has increased 25.8% . There was a prevailing downtrend which has now been broken by the last two day's trading. RSI on the daily chart indicated this stock was oversold and is now trending upwards. RSI on the weekly chart is at a value of 31 and is just coming out of the oversold area, plenty more room to go. This stock was being shorted during the downtrend. There was high volume traded on the 19th and 22th of Dec which may mean shorts are packing up and accumulators are on SLR now. Many cx trades and closing auction trades so smart money are playing with this one.
Poster: Ibza (STT Accuracy: 31.2% - Ranking No.13 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14520418/single (Mcap: $98.1m)


AGO - Iron Ore [in WA] [31/12/2014]
Head and Shoulders Bottom: The price seems to have reached the end of a period of "accumulation" at the bottom of a major downtrend; the break up through resistance signals a reversal to a new uptrend. The Head and Shoulders Bottom is created by three successive declines in the price following a significant downtrend. The lowest low (head) is in the middle, flanked by two higher lows (shoulders) at roughly the same level. Volume is highest as the price makes the first two declines, then diminishes through the right shoulder. Finally volume surges as the price closes above the neckline (drawn between the two highs) to confirm the reversal.
Poster: Forrestfield© (STT Accuracy: 57.7% - Ranking No.4 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14520545/single (Mcap: $211.5m)


BDR - Gold producer[in Brazil] [31/12/2014]
With a low all in sustaining cost relatively speaking Most tech indicators are showing it as a buy with the exceptions of the stochs) looks to have bottomed, worryingly though Comsec shows 2 majors rating it a major buy, hopefully they are not in distribution phase just yet. In the medium term this should go much higher with profit on operations Has disappointed in previous quarters, and has been valued accordingly. With turmoil not going away globally, fundamentally this is not a bad hedge, with some breathing room between Gold price and cost of production, although Forex needs to be watched.
Poster: 383hq (STT Accuracy: 27.3% - Ranking No.16 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14518214/single (Mcap: $203.7m)


CDU - Aussie oil explorer with tenements in West Africa [31/12/2014]
Qld copper mine, about a year from full processing, but has ore in China at refineries for analysis, and a small sale to a local processing plant. SP $1.54 Mcap $354m Technically, moving averages, and most Tech indicators on a daily indicate a buy. Personally I've recently taken profits along the way fundamentally, not sure if recent buying is due to a) VWAP efforts for upcoming share dilution (EGM due end Jan) b) speculation on "second sales" (ore to China has been sampled in China, and with a nearby processing plant that may wish to stay open and processing) c) potential interest in the assets to balance the argument, it's also worth noting the weakness in sentiment for copper, with increasing LME stocks, decreasing spot price.
Poster: 383hq (STT Accuracy: 27.3% - Ranking No.16 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14518159/single (Mcap: $459.1m)


FAR - Aussie oil explorer with tenements in West Africa [31/12/2014]
Nice discoveries (2 off) earlier in the year, fundamentally not looking announcements for another 4-8 weeks as a guess, but technically I'll let the experts decide whether the daily chart shows a flag and pennant or cup and handle pattern Parabolic SAR shows a buy , MACD on the up, assuming you see a trend from mid Dec. ST target 11.5c. SP 8.6c Mcap $265m
Poster: 383hq (STT Accuracy: 27.3% - Ranking No.16 )
(Mcap: $293.9m)


IWG - Internet Security [30/12/2014]
Market cap $95 million Cash $5 million+ Share price 17c hammered down on listing last week, recovered after finding a floor price via big dollar soaking large individual buys of $250k+ OBV increasing sellers thin
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.1% - Ranking No.5 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14516580/single (Mcap: $0m)


E88 - E-commerce in Asia [30/12/2014]
Today's close at 8c created a break of the downtrend that began mid-September. Share price is forming a saucer pattern, confirmed and replicated by the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. On-screen buyers are outnumbering on-screen sellers 3 to 1. Fortunately for those that think E88 is worth accumulating under 9c, there is still an off-screen seller that looks to be liquidating. Chart from April this year has a gap from 45-50c which I would love to be filled next year: First target is horizontal resistance at 10-10.5c (lower grey line) If 10.5c is breached, this also breaks the slightly longer term downtrend from July this year, and would set up a move towards the next horizontal resistance of 20-21c (upper grey line)
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.1% - Ranking No.5 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14516148/single (Mcap: $38.3m)


WLC - Coal Producer [NSW ] [23/12/2014]
SP - 2c MC - $137M Cash - $12.9M The sp has bottomed at 1.1c late in Nov and has not been in a steady upward channel. Higher volume has also come into play. Higher low has been achieved 3 out of the last 4 weeks. Also a big gap to fill between 5.5c and 7c
Poster: Marty386 (STT Accuracy: 15.4% - Ranking No.18 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14494828/single (Mcap: $133.1m)


ZIP - Telecommunications [ Based in Australia] [22/12/2014]
Price 27c, recent $5m placement so has cash, Stock has been beaten down for a 8 weeks or more and is in a downtrend channel, in fact near the lower edge of the channel. Green Inside Day on Friday I believe will signal the turning point for the stock and now presents an attractive entry. A Close above Fridays high will be bullish, a break out of downtrend channel will be even more bullish and signal possible start of sustained uptrend
Poster: Freehold© (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14491088/single (Mcap: $14.6m)


DUO - Copper/gold Doolgunna player plus pending tech acquisition [22/12/2014]
Cap $3.5 million, Cash $3 million, SP 008.OBV strong, on market buyers are gradually overpowering on market sellers, and I dare say the on market buyers may also be the 1c placement takers snapping up a few more heavily discounted shares
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 51.1% - Ranking No.5 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14490316/single (Mcap: $1m)


SEA - Oil and Gas in USA [19/12/2014]
Market Cap: $261M, Current SP: 47.5c, Gap Up on open today. Previous close was 39.75c . Today's open was at 45c. - RSI on daily chart is oversold and on weekly is severely oversold. The RSI has started to trend upwards on both charts which indicates the initiation of an sp uptrend. - SP has not conformed to the existing downtrend and is starting to show a break from the downtrend. - Some signs of SM accumulation such as numerous closing auction trades and cx trades
Poster: Ibza (STT Accuracy: 31.2% - Ranking No.13 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14484028/single (Mcap: $282.8m)


NRT - Biotech - Cancer Treatments [19/12/2014]
Extreme high volume in last couple of days with high of 27c and got dumped into 10c as capital has been raised at 12.5c. That represented a very good opportunity for those who were waiting to get a cheap entry. I know many have been burnt due to this quick raise but volume has been extreme high with almost well above half of the company shares changed its hands. 200 day moving average was crossed twice in last two days. It has been soaked all day today at 12.5c with a massive buying in last 20 minutes.
Poster: Forrestfield© (STT Accuracy: 57.7% - Ranking No.4 )
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14483496/single (Mcap: $19.6m)