Imho, your points vis the tug of influences and the gap are spot on @48&34...and the market profile from the last few sessions, fwiw, conforms to your analysis. NDX has bounced off the 21/3 area too. There was an article in the WSJ the other day that has to do with your last point vis the Chinese but it's gated. As @kellbys' post above notes it’s a bit complicated ain't it. China data from last night point to the suspicion that the effects of recent stimulus are fading. Yeah on the shrinks but I reckon he wouldn't listen much lol.
Short Term Trading Week Starting: 6 May, page-118
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