short term trading week starting - 6th jan

Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 6th Jan Dec 2014 (No. 99)

Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).

Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!



Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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KCN - Gold and Silver in Brazil,

6/1/2014

Troy Resources Limited (TRY) is gold and silver producer with two producing gold operations; Andorinhas in Para State, Brazil and Casposo in San Juan province, Argentina, and one advanced stage exploration project in Guyana. TRY’s gold and silver production is unhedged. Has a new mine in development by the look of things is unhedged in a beaten up sector. I see resistance right back to 2002 and 1996 levels for close to bottom of the gold sector .
Poster: Valen1828 (STT Accuracy: 28.6% - Ranking No.18 )
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(Mcap:$166.8m)

PAA - Biotech ,

6/12/2014

Commencement of trials on canine cancers should see this bio appreciate significantly while the sector continues to remain in focus (recent press articles seem to suggest that the wider market has only just tuned in to what hotcopperites have been enjoying for over 12 months now, so while the time to sell is now in some bios, others are yet to make a move of any significance, and should expect significant gains)
Poster: Mowibble (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$17.3m)

PSY - Technology,

2/01/2014

strong rising OBV, above ma, big price breakout Tues afternoon, equal record closing high, multiple large buys over the last week
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49% - Ranking No.2 )
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(Mcap:$47.2m)

PSY - Technology,

2/01/2014

Developing an optical readout system for MEMS devices with limitless economic potential led by two former senior execs from Cisco Systems and a phd from UWA. Market cap around $50 million - plenty of upside considering possible applications
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49% - Ranking No.2 )
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(Mcap:$47.2m)

BTR - Zinc mine, Copper project, both in Africa.,

30/12/2013

27% equity in Perkoa zinc, lead, silver mine, operated by Glencore in Burkina Faso, expected to produce 90,000 tonnes of zinc in 2014. Cash cost not known. Copper project called Kitumba at PFS stage in Zambia. Optimised PFS due in April 2014 following mediocre result in 2013.The poor PFS caused the share price to fall from 50c to 25c roughly. But since then we have had a 25% increase in the copper resource, and on-market share buying from directors. I suspect operationally things are going well at Perkoa, and we will see first lead/silver shipment early in 2014.Zinc price is on the up, which could augment any good news at Perkoa. Cash is $20m, which is half the market cap of $40m.
Poster: Umizoomi (STT Accuracy: 53.8% - Ranking No.1 )
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(Mcap:$41.9m)

VHL - Biotech in WA,

31/12/2013

Virax has returned to the ASX boards and appears to be undergoing a strong accumulation from Patterson’s out of WA around the 1.5c level before forging in to Biotech As soon as there is a project in this small cap I sense the stock will run hard , nice volume through again today and now only 1.2 bid
Poster: Firsova (STT Accuracy: 32.4% - Ranking No.15 )
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(Mcap:$6.6m)

OBL - Oil & Gas sector WA & VIC,

30/12/2013

SP 0.021Mcap $13mCash $0.1 Due to have cash injection from farm in. Oil Basins Limited (OBL) is an oil and gas exploration and development company with operated projects in onshore and offshore Western Australia and non-operated projects in offshore Victoria. Just received Federal Court Decision in favour of OBL with regard to native title. The Company now expects to be notified in due course of the intention of the Minister for Mines and Petroleum to issue petroleum exploration permit 5/07-8EP (Derby Block)Derby block highly prospective next to BRU in the Canning basin. Should be a few Company announcements to come Grant and farmins for Derby and Backreef, injection of cash.
Poster: Stefan41 (STT Accuracy: 13.3% - Ranking No.23 )
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(Mcap:$12.5m)

AKK - Oil and Gas explorer - US ,

30/12/2013

Unconventional, mainly Texas and Colorado Major Events: Free carried horizontal program retaining 30% in Texas by Halcon (3 wells) and PetroMax (1 well) worth up to $50m spend. These 4 wells are planned back to back, Catalysts: Significant momentum and news flow expected first quarter 2014 on these drills. Minor Events: Company also has 1 well in Mississippi (50%) and one well in Colorado due to drill first quarter 2014 (100%). A recompletion program also underway in Kentucky (100%).First well spudded Dec 23rd. (Halcon horizontal targeting Eagleford Shale) Average IP of 7 wells around 900-1000boepd. Experienced in the region. Current MCap $19mCash $2.5mStock in ASX-TLU $1.5mPositive moves Friday.
Poster: Sector Lead (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$21.1m)

LBT - Medical Industry,

27/12/2013

8.5c$10 million cap$1.7 million cash Receipt of royalty income under the agreement with bioMérieux during quarter of $162,637. Minimum royalties for the full 2013 calendar year will total $US600,000.Other cash flows for the quarter related to normal operating activities and were largely directed towards continued development of LBT’s APAS technology. In October, LBT received a cash refund of $826,942 from the ATO under the R & D tax concession.
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49% - Ranking No.2 )
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(Mcap:$7.6m)

PPX - Paper Australia,

24/12/2013

Very positive announcement after market tonight suggests this major paper distribution business is set to return to break even in the current year Completely discounted at 4.3c close tonight , falling from over $5 or 98% off its 5 year highs when revenue was $4 Billion and profit was strong .Revenue is still well over $2 billon and the major restructure appears to be working ,might be worth watching for a xmas rally towards 10c +
Poster: Firsova (STT Accuracy: 32.4% - Ranking No.15 )
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(Mcap:$29.2m)

TSV - Oil and gas explorer in Australia,

23/12/2013

MC 16 mil, Cash 4milPrice mover, outstanding sales deal of Canadian assets which would make there current cash position something in the order of $20 mil. Plenty of rumours flying around that the deal is to complete before year end and the trading of the stock is starting to reflect this. Also imminent ann regarding Alcoa's continued funding of the Warro projects drilling in the first half of 2014, two wells back to back is expected. Alcoa still have 50 mil to contribute to fulfil all of their commitments on this project.
Poster: V8 (STT Accuracy: 29% - Ranking No.17 )
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(Mcap:$16.1m)

IMC - Oral Immunotherapy Biotech Company,

23/12/2013

Given the market's irrational love of second rallies on heavily traded liquid tech stocks, and the fundamental underpricing of the Phase IIB clearance on IMM124E for Nash (leaky gut), along with the revised direct marketing approach of its Travelan product, there seems to be enough reason to speculate that this could test new recent highs of 2c soon.
Poster: Mowibble (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$13.5m)

AUQ - ZInc and Copper mine, Saudi Arabia,

23/12/2013

MC $15m,Cash position $6m , With recent movements in base metal prices adding over $100m in bottomline value to their flagship project, it is probable that today’s test of a 61% retrace on the share price is a good shot at a short term entry.
Poster: Mowibble (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$14.5m)

LRS - Iron Ore, Iron Sands Copper Gold explorer,

23/12/2013

uado is an Iron sands project in Peru that seems the best to try do a FA value on , it is about 25 km from the largest steel smelter in the country , is near the major port of Chimbote and on a major highway . The JORC showed Heavy metal grades of around 1.2b tonnes at 6% that justify finding a JV partner for the 2 core minerals indicated within the JORC , ( Magnetite 26% /$200 a tonne and Andusalite 25% /$400 a tonne ) .The company received a key approval on Friday but the stock ignored it trading about 100,000 shares On the Guado numbers alone if you mined just this small part of their land bank , at 30m tonnes per annum of production for 40 years you would get about 18 million tonnes of Magnetite and about the same of Andusalite or approx $200 m per annum of revenue for 40 years . At a market cap of $14m these numbers seem ludicrous , happy to hear The reasons why it is so unloved but also happy to add LRS to my STT buy side at this price for a Xmas re rate. My 5 reasons for thinking it is worth trying to catch this falling knife are The JV on ILLO is positive , the news on Guado is long awaited and positive , the MD signed a further 3 year extension recently ( why the board would do that if he is a dud I don’t know ) , they successfully sold mariella at a profit and got more cash in to fund themselves , and finally for a baby stock like LRS to be in business with RIO on their Brazilian assets seems enough reason for me to continue to try catch the falling knife on LRS .
Poster: Firsova (STT Accuracy: 32.4% - Ranking No.15 )
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(Mcap:$15.9m)

BUE - Restructuring Shell? ,

23/12/2013

005c$4 million cap$2.2 million cash annual revenue $250 million revenue last quarter - $60 million net profit last quarter - $1 million net assets after ATO debt compromise - $13 million previously had a net asset deficiency of $15 million which is why the stock was trading so low ATO debt compromise deal allows $29 million debt to be cancelled with a $6 million payment Valdez are taking a 15% placement at .008c and providing a $2 million loan to allow this BUE also have a $40 million credit facility of which only $17 million has been drawn operating well within all creditor limits$250 million revenue for a $4 million cap, and based on most recent quarterly, a p/e of 1assuming Valdez and ATO deal - net assets triple market cap
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49% - Ranking No.2 )
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(Mcap:$5.6m)

DMY - Ex-Wine shell Co ,

20/12/2013

Market cap $750k,$200k cash,.005cLooking for tech or biotech acquisition. Recently announced they were looking at acquisition opportunities in the "non-resource sector" Price catalyst will be speculation of acquisition and the acquisition itself
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49% - Ranking No.2 )
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(Mcap:$0.8m)

SMA - Gaming & Online Payment,

19/12/2013

SMA has a complete monopoly as the only bitcoin stock on the ASX, and also a monopoly of exposure to the iPhone app phenomenon that is Angry Birds. Just as PSY attracts the MEMS speculation as the only stock of its kind, SMA will attract Bitcoin speculation.(Its that line that got my header post on the SMA thread moderated for X-promotion) I think if they mentioned bitcoins in the announcement header from 2nd Dec, SMA would have risen - but they didn't, the header was bland and probably didnt get a whole lot of reads.SMA are involved in a 12 month bitcoin mining contract that made them $165k in the last week of November. Allow for variables and say they make on average $95k per week, they'll generate $5 million - and as far as I can tell from the announcement, that will be clear profit, not revenue. hey paid $250k for a 50% share in the mining contract, and have stated they have zero additional expenses payable. The price of bitcoins has fallen in the last week, but that means SMA will be able to mine more of them, so profits are hedged from any falls in the bitcoin price. Revenue from their other activities is growing exponentially - billing services and mobile apps revenue was almost 500% higher in November than in October. And when I use the word exponential, I mean it.
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49% - Ranking No.2 )
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(Mcap:$44m)

RIS - Shipping,

19/12/2013

Is extremely undervalued and could be making some big moves...towards ChinaShareholders BuyingDate Shareholder Previous (%) New (%) Shares Traded03/04/2013 Grand Orient Capital Co Ltd -- 17.49 -- 11,000,00003/04/2013 Sinotrans Investment Co Ltd -- 17.48 -- 11,000,[email protected]. Huge trump card to be given such a piece of the company. http://www.sinotransone.com/Sinotransgroup.html is a monster of a company in terms of shipping. They (RIS)currently have up to 15,724,203 new Equity Securities available to the highest bidder (until 22 May 2014). No company presentation, and its too quiet for mine...They have $10M in the bank. (Market Cap $7M)and if Sinotrans decide to take this company, they will. This new issue gives them 30% and the MD dilutes to 28%. They are probably in negotiations with the Chinese on a price that will please LTH's (mostly Malaysian i guess, King Leo and onshow and a few others who were onto it.)And I wouldn't be surprised if Grand Orient Capital draw up the takeover....And for the first tim
e in nearly seven years an RIS share will be bought on the Australian market for 0.16cBy Christmas I reckon.Before the Chinese get here......Long until 22 May, 2014
Poster: Bozleyboo (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$7.5m)

PMY - Gold in Colombia,

18/12/2013

Pacifico (PMY) is out of a trading halt today having locked away a very exciting licence where artisanal workings have taken place. Trading up 33% at 2 cents. Due Diligence has taken place with numbers to come out from underground channel sampling:10 m at 64.7 g/t AU10m at 18.5 g/t AU10m at 17.9 g/t AU10m at 15.4 g/t AU Market Cap at 2 cents: $7.8 million Cash : $1.5 million Colombian base and precious metals exploration. 2 year tenement moratorium recently lifted. Pacifico management identified over 2500km2 of highly prospective targets. Currently 2 projects - Tarso and Urrao. Looking at picking up two more tenements in the near term. (The first has just been acquired - and the most exciting!)Management: Chairman Richard Monti. Formally MD of Azimuth Resources (AZH) that got taken out by Troy (TRY) for $188mn in March 2013. This is his new project. Azimuth was a gold exploration play in Guyana so he knows South America very well. Colombia: Huge Copper/Gold in Chile and Peru but Colombia has had less than 5% explored
.45% of the worlds copper production is from Andean Porphyry deposits In the past 5 years, 75 mn ounces of Gold has been defined in Resources in Colombia.
Poster: Spooner41015 (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$11.3m)

Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects
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KCN - Gold and Silver in Brazil,

6/1/2014

Close enough for a morning star pattern signalling a bottom of a long down trend with the candle sticks .Comparing apples with the gfc low points this pattern splintered all over the stock market in various stocks . I often reflect on it and have seen it in quite a few gold stocks now as i never really new much about charting then. The xgd took off a year before the lows of 2009 where the gfc bottom was around march .Correlation to anything I’m not really sure but using some feeling here for going on a hunch we should see some good bounce in the oversold areas and this one paid a ten cent dividend in 2012 . Also see the possible early formations of morning stars in the monthly weekly and daily charts. The trix is giving me an early signal on the 5/5 basis but not on the longer term one yet . I am basing a lot on the morning star to appear and is only one candle stick pattern in a long down trend this reversal pattern could be a winner maybe if it takes shape .
Poster: Valen1828 (STT Accuracy: 28.6% - Ranking No.18 )
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(Mcap:$166.8m)

KCN - Gold Produced in Thailand and Aust and Chile,

6/1/2014

Market Cap $180 Million. About the company Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (KCN) is a gold producer and exploration company. The company owns and operates the Chatree gold mine in central Thailand, the Challenger underground gold mine in South Australia and is undertaking feasibility studies on two development projects, the 100% owned Nueva Esperanza silver/gold project in Central Chile and the Bowdens silver project in NSW. Weekly showing strongly from lows and the short term 5/5 trix has crossed around 10/12/13 on the daily and reach the bias line with a small cup .Stock has shown this pattern again and looking now for a break upwards as the longer term trix has also crossed and looking for a cup handle pattern to appear around the $1.60 mark where fair value could be .Looking for the two small cups to signal a longer term trend forming .
Poster: Valen1828 (STT Accuracy: 28.6% - Ranking No.18 )
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(Mcap:$166.8m)

CSS - Aquaculture in S.Aust,

6/1/2014

Clean Seas Tuna Limited (CSS) is involved in aquaculture business which includes the propagation of Kingfish, production of fingerlings for sale as well as the grow out of Kingfish and Mulloway in Australia, USA, Europe and Asia. The company operates in two main businesses: finfish commercialisation and Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) research and development.CSS Has moved from its lows in June last year and has been trading higher in what looks to be a confirmed breakout from its lows .Its currently in the upward trend of what may form as a cup and handle pattern or will break up as it reaches resistance around 5.2 cents .The trix in a 5/5 signal pattern has broken the bias line confirming the cup pattern taking place and the longer term trix of 15/9 has turned upwards towards the bias line . The handle if it forms should be confirmed with the crossing of the bias line with stt focus in mind. And looking for it to break higher here and firm towards a longer trend in price and a possible short term breakout . Volumes have been good and looking to see if it will now breakout from a handle on the weekly chart .A break of 6 cents will be conformation of a longer term trend taking place. The trix is turned upwards on a longer basis here and very close to bias line or in trading terms for the trix the cup. Longer term the trix is showing reflecting the handle in the cup of the weekly chart and has gone below the bias line where entry points are lower risk with crossing upwards the signal to buy in the longer term trend.
Poster: Valen1828 (STT Accuracy: 28.6% - Ranking No.18 )
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(Mcap:$38.5m)

PAA - Biotech ,

6/1/2014

Bullish indicators and at least 40% headroom on the channel with a nice C+H pattern already forming. potential for an intraweek pullback, but over the next three weeks, a pretty good case for a nice ST trade, with potential for a LT breakout if it can breach 1.6c
Poster: Mowibble (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$17.3m)

SOI - Agricultural products,

2/01/2014

SOI develops and promotes the agricultural product, NutriMix which is a fully organic growing medium formula that has been patented in Australia and New Zealand Rising with strength and nice rounding off a 3 year base with recent volume and support. Expecting to see Vol going back up to approx 17mils by end of next week and then beyond, so a good time to take an entry in the next couple of days .I can only assume that a next target is around 1c then next around 2c which was the previous high from April 2011 on the weekly chart below. Beyond that and who knows the 30 Mth EMA is at 10c and there is a vacuum void all the way to 28c closed on new years eve at .005c
Poster: Pilsner (STT Accuracy: 25% - Ranking No.20 )
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(Mcap:$4.7m)

PRU - Gold Producer in West Africa,

2/01/2014

May bounce hard.Cash and gold, $37m including restricted cash VAT refundable US$38m, $42mHedge gain, $29mTotal $108mMarket cap, $119m52 week high $2.2552 week low $0.21Current $0.25590% drop looks well oversold.
Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 46.7% - Ranking No.5 )
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(Mcap:$139.7m)

DDT - Technology Sector,

30/12/2013

DataDot Technology Limited is an Australian public company (ASX-DDT) that has been at the forefront of developing theft deterrent and asset identification technologies for the past 15 years. DataDot products are sold by distributors in 28 countries. TA: close above the 10 Month EMA after a recent retest of support this mth triggers a long term buy sig. Weekly close above 2.9c is also a ST buy sig above a critical support level that should IMO now realise higher targets. Current support at 2.7c may need testing next week but I think it has done enough work around the 200 day EMA without needing to go there again. (but yet to be proved. Very ST target of approx. 4.4-4.6c where I would expect to see the next entry present on retrace. Who knows who cares if this will make the +25% the point with posting this one is that I believe it will have a great 2014.
Poster: Pilsner (STT Accuracy: 25% - Ranking No.20 )
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(Mcap:$25.8m)

LBT - Medical Industry,

27/12/2013

Technically - triple bottom around 7c, white candle, moving average crossover, buy/sell column looks bullish
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49% - Ranking No.2 )
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(Mcap:$7.6m)

COM - Workforce Mgmt,

23/12/2013

Rounding base initial uptrend confirmed with follow through of the next leg up late last week, if price and volume are confirming (which they are ) and this is indeed in a hot sector who am I to disagree with what the rest are saying.
Poster: Pilsner (STT Accuracy: 25% - Ranking No.20 )
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(Mcap:$10.2m)

BUE - Restructuring Shell? ,

23/12/2013

Obv steadily increasing since end of June tax loss selling very long base formed since drop from $6 in 2008price increasing from solid bottom at .003c, aside from Friday’s sell back down to .005c on $2k
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49% - Ranking No.2 )
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(Mcap:$5.6m)

BOL - Mining Services
Construction
Cranes
Australia Wide,

20/12/2013

The Mining Services Sector has been absolutely trashed lately but in the last few days has been showing a turnaround. As BOL is very well correlated (r2=0.83 with Mining Services sector it would probably be valid that it turns also. A correlation of 1.0 is a perfect correlation. You can see how it has held up during the last 4 days on above average volume. Possibly due to Commonwealth bank buying as they just put a notice in. Analyst targets if you can believe them are also around 21c. See Charts in Link below
Poster: Bonehead1000 (STT Accuracy: Unknown)
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(Mcap:$59.4m)

SMA - Gaming & Online Payment,

19/12/2013

Has bounced of a triple bottom support at 2cLow volume retrace Sitting at 50% fib retrace after slight overshoot. Strong bidding support in queue Some kind of triangle
Poster: Fibonarchery© (STT Accuracy: 49% - Ranking No.2 )
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(Mcap:$44m)

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Links to Previous Weeks Lists

No.98: FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 30th Dec) - Click HERE

No.97: FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 23rd Dec) - Click HERE

No.96: FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 16th Dec) - Click HERE

No.95: FA & TA Leads (for week starting: 9th Dec) - Click HERE