XAO 0.35% 8,039.9 all ordinaries

Short Term Trading Week Starting: 8th Oct, page-121

  1. 1,371 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 369
    Yeah, the uncertiany about the company all seems to be removed.
    I posted about it here last weekend.

    Here's what I said,

    The chart is obvouisly from last week but the re-rating still remains.




    Last is Rare Earth Elements

    Rare Earths could be set for a massive price spike if the US-China Trade Wars continue.
    China produces 80-90% of the worlds Rare Earths and has a solid strangle hold on the industry and the rest of the world.
    If Trump keeps pushing with the trade tariffs, China could retaliate with restricting supply of Rare Earths.
    This is something they've done it in the past.


    LYC is the only competition and alternative outside of China.

    LYC has been a downward trend since the new prime minster of Malaysian (Mahathir Mohammad) was sworn in to government on the 10/05/18.
    Some MPs inside Mahathirs ruling party have been openly hostile against Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia.

    Last week there were media reports that the Lynas, LAMP was going to have a review committee review it's operations in Malaysia.
    Media reports were also circulating that MP and openly hostile critic of LYC, Fuziah Salleh was going to chair the committee...


    A very bullish statement for LYC was released on Friday afternoon by the prime minster, Mahathir Mohammad

    "the review of Lynas plant wont be dictated by views of MPs Fuziah Salleh and Wong Tack"
    and that
    "Malaysia pledges fair review of Lynas plant after pleas from CEO"


    Reading between the lines here it appears Fuziah Salleh jumped the gun and shot her mouth off to media a little too early before the review was officially announced.

    After media reports of the review committee CEO of Lynas, Amanda Lacaze, wrote an open letter to the government, specifying that Lynas hadn't been officially contacted about the review and also that they be given a fair and just review (given that the supposed head of the committee was an open anti Lynas activist.

    I believe the prime minster has pulled rank and put his MPs in place given his statements.
    I also believe that given Lynas past performance in the country that they will pass the review with flying colours.


    LYC Chart

    - As you can see the top pin bar candle and start of the down trend was when Mahathir Mohammad was sworn into government.
    - The big red candle fall was when media reports of a review committee started circulating.
    - Friday afternoons announcement by the government signalled very strong buying all the way up to close of the day.

    I believe with the news being late in the day and still yet to be fully processed, most investors waiting on the side lines missed the initial run, this is indicated by the average volume.
    The wide spread candle on average volume may also be signifying that there aren't many/any sellers left and price was able to move up quite easily.

    I'm expecting a decent re-rating next week as then the news will be fully processed.

    Last edited by radx: 12/10/18
 
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