STTCOMP AVZ, TA LONG
AVZ MINERALS LTD
SP: 25c
MC $430M
Disclaimer:
1. I am trying to keep this tip as a 100% technical + mathematical one, therefore, will not talk about any FA here. However, IMO, a buying decision should be based on fundamentals for a stock like this, and technicals will only supplement your FA findings (unless you are a pure technical short-termer).
2. I hold AVZ.
Following is the Daily chart of AVZ showing price action since December 2016. Chart looks a bit messy as I have the Ichimoku Cloud on - sorry, but I need it to explain the excellent TA set up AVZ has currently.
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The first and the most important thing to note in this chart is the clearly identifiable cycles of price action. A cycle that is constituted of Rally and Retrace (and effectively resulting a Retention at the end of the cycle) seems to occur in every 3 months approximately. In other words, AVZ currently follows a perfect Quarterly SP Cycle. AVZ has experienced four of these cycles after it started to show clear patterns of price action, since December 2016. Patterns became better and more recognizable gradually along with the increase in the liquidity, for obvious reasons.
Now, let us have a look at each cycle and their features. I will be using the Daily chart and Ichimoku Clouds (and associated terms) during the commentary on each.
If someone wants to refresh technical terms used in Ichimoku, a quick revision is here (sample only, not relevant to AVZ or to the contents of this post):
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Cycle 1
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On 19 December 2016, SP tries to breakthrough Green Cloud [A] in a downward movement, but fails. It then stays around for a while until the Conversion Line crosses the Base Line, giving a strong buy signal . Then it peaks [C] at an overall +169% rally from its previous bottom [A], and +121% from the buy signal . Then, there was the inevitable retrace accounting for -43%, to bottom [D] on 13 March 2017. SP breaks Green Cloud while bottoming, but reverses straight away.
At the end of this cycle, SP gained +54% from its starting SP.
Cycle 2
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At the start of the Cycle 2, SP rallies through the Green Cloud, then retraces in a failed attempt to break the Green Cloud again going south [E]. Meanwhile, the Conversion Line has crossed the Base Line moving north [F], giving a moderate buy signal. Then SP peaks [G] with an overall +141% rally from its previous low [D], and 88% from the recent buy signal [F]. After peaking, SP retraces -35%, breaking Green Cloud, to bottom [H] on 23 June 2017.
During this cycle, SP retained another +53% from its previous low SP.
Cycle 3
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Since 23 June, SP starts moving on a slightly upward trend, while giving a strong buy signal by when the Conversion Line crossed the Base Line . Eventually, SP peaks [J] with an impressive +464% rally, which is still a massive gain of +383% from the buy signal . Then there is again the inevitable retrace amounting to -45%, to bottom on 22 September [K], but still was able to stay above the Green Cloud.
At the completion of this Cycle 3, SP retained a massive +205% from its previous low.
Cycle 4
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At the beginning of Cycle 4, SP breaks through the Green Cloud and the Base Line , but only to recover next day [L]. Price moves and stays above the Green Cloud, and there we get the strong Buy signal by having the Conversion Line crossed the Base Line [M]. That sparks the next rally to peak at $0.310 [N] for 139% rally from the buy signal [M] and +221% overall from its previous bottom [K]. From the peak, SP retraces -36%, to bottom [O] on 12 December 2017.
During this cycle, SP retained another +108% from the end of previous cycle.
Cycle 5 – Ongoing
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The current cycle started on 12 December 2017 [O]. It was travelling through the Green Cloud till yesterday and now sits above it. A Buy signal
appeared on 29 December. The signal was moderate, however still strong enough to lift the price through and above the Cloud area. If this buy signal fails to ignite the next big rally, I would expect another two crossovers between the Conversion Line and the Base Line to occur within the next week or so, giving a strong Buy signal above the Conversion Line.
Current progress from the previous bottom is 29%, and still there is lot more gain left within this cycle from what we saw in the previous cycles.
I have further analysed previous rallies and retraces to determine possible gains. Results are very encouraging, from technical and mathematical point of view. However, in the real world, SP move is very unpredictable, and things can change very quickly depending upon many other things, especially in this end of the world. I am posting the rest as thumbnails, to avoid myself further spamming the thread. If anyone is interested please have a look, and have some fun!
(P.S. If someone thinks below estimations / calculations are useless and BS, yes, I am with you
! These are ‘dreaming’ purposes only!)
Predictions are here:
Best Case Scenario
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Worst Case Scenario
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Good luck everyone! Please do not forget to do some research before you open your wallet!
