Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 1-3 Sept, page-129

Well that question really comes down to whether I trust the word of the often re-quoted twitter poster who is spreading the rumour, lets call him "Poster X" on the AVZ threads (who I understand was suspended from Hot copper for "dubious" behaviour and who shall remain unnamed hence the X).

Of concern to me is the numerous novice posters on the AVZ thread who have reverted to blindly trusting poster X and everything he says or hints at. This is extremely dangerous for them IMHO it seems healthy scepticism has been thrown out the window with the recent steep rally. A-Typical behavoir. So this is a dangerous cocktail ie novice traders blindly following a single influential and high profile poster (with a large holding) who has a questionable posting history/ behaviour record.... the phase "lambs to the slaughter" comes to mind. The possible saving grace for the spring lambs in this case is the stock itself which appears on the face of it to own 60% of a world class Lithium hard rock deposit in DRC and a well respected and experienced CEO Klaus Eckhof steering the ship... so world class ? well as much as we can tell from historic records and the 5 holes that have been reported thus far. One spectacular hole and 3 Ok'ish holes and one crap one. Holes are very widely spaced scout holes. There are assays of two holes to come and needless to say there is extremely high expectation for these holes ...lets hope they match the hype?.


So being a born sceptic I pay almost zero heed to any spruikers and that extends to X and his hints at a takeover intent by the Chinese based on the above holes and historic info... I think Klaus (CEO) would be doing the share holders a massive disservice by selling this early actually ... at a mcap of circa $240m when he could sell it for 3-4x that price with a very large and high grade indicated Jorc early next year. So by association poster X attempting to force or facilitate a early Chinese takeover deal is also doing the shareholders a disservice in my mind .

Unfortunately many of the Novice traders riding the AVZ train will not be able to see past their navel and will have a investment horizon of few days or a few weeks ... but the 2nd tranche of much larger gains will come towards the end of phase 2 & 3 drill (if we get that far) and Jorc statement being produced... and hence the value of the company will also skyrocket assuming they can back up the initial drill with many large high grade intercepts.

So to answer your question ... in essence I am ignoring the "white noise" produced by X and the takeover speculation in general .... Anyone can say anything on social media and not be held to account in anyway. So maintain your scepticism until "proven" otherwise... IMHO

I haven't posted these musing to the AVZ threads btw as I can't be bothered with the abuse from the "party faithful/X Fan club" that will no doubt result... So please don't repost it there.

Cheers FH

PS: At this stage I would think a further farm-in or minority JV would be far more beneficial to share holder that a outright takeover.


All is IMHO DYOR