Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 10-12 May, page-13

A bit of speculation on how the trade war [TW] will play out over the next few weeks....

This is a chart of the $US/ Yuan exchange rate... in the past week China has devalued the Yuan noticeably. For context... at the start of the TW China initially aggressively devalued from ~6.4 to the $US in June 2018 to ~6.9... held that level for some months, then from the start of 2019 moved to ~6.7 and maintained it there. 6.4 to 6.9 roughly equaled the 10% tariff imposition. If China responds the same way this time the Yuan will go to ~8 to the $US. I think it is hard to see China going that far as it would create significant internal problems with rising import costs [mainly oil], although we will see just how far they have progressed in their Russia relationship. Something between 7 and 7.5 is imaginable.



I don't think China wants to, or is able to, fight the US head on in an all out TW. Instead I think they will continue the facade of discussions... but they will be re-routing as many of their exports as they can through third countries [i.e. Vietnam] to evade tariffs. They will impose restrictions on US imports and target the US farming sector... no doubt about that imo. China wins the TW if they can drag it out, unresolved, for another year and Trump loses the 2020 election. I think it is certain China does not intend to comply with Trump's demands but will make reassuring noises to disguise that for as long as it works.

Last night's rally on the US market.... explained in this one chart imo.