Hi MB, I don't have a position on it yetReally was a question,...

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12/10/19

16:16

Post #: 40852052
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Originally posted by madbutcher: ↑

I’m not sure I agree @Sector. The Aussie retailers are dependant on the households access to cash and credit as it is all based on discretionary spending. Wages have been stagnating for years and I’m hearing stories about the access to credit drying up as well. To top it off, Australians are the highest indebted households in the world.

I think the recent rise in retailers comes off the back of the proliferation of payday lenders like zip pay and afterpay and not from consumers having more money in their pockets. The bubble of the Z1P and APT is still raging at the moment but it can’t last.

Wages aren’t going to increase any time soon either because that what makes up 50% of our exports (brown coal, iron ore and oil and gas) has been dropping in value on the year. Payday lenders are squeezing the last remaining drops out of consumers at a time when building approvals are dropping as well so there aren’t even any new homes to furnish.

I think the retailers are going to be a pump and dump unless the government starts helicopter money or something. Kevin Rudds plasma grant a few years back gave a nice little boost to the retailers as well but it didn’t last.

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Hi MB, I don't have a position on it yet
Really was a question, for discussion.

But same store sales figures from these guys are improving, which is a pretty good sign in a tough sector.
I thought the reports showed life. and the SP are improving in main 2019. Very beaten down most of them.

There are also signs building activity is improving, remember we've been at all time highs.
I think by 2021, building activity will improve in resi.
Melbourne housing is still very strong, and our city population growth takes care of this over time, given Melbourne and Brisbane growing 1.8-2% net pa.
I read city pop growth is around 1.7% ave vs regional 1%

We've taken 230 years to reach 25m
The next 25m may come in as little as 50 years with our current growth.

Last edited by Sector: 12/10/19

XAO Value at posting: 6,721.9
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