Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge 11-13th Dec, page-82

  1. 11,400 Posts.
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    Can we change that to 100% of the time.. its just you don't know what drives their self-interest. It could be money, idle curiousity, ego, good feelings (yes I choose to believe there are altruistic people amongst us) or even just to fit in.

    I think the danger in any situation is 3-fold.

    1. assuming another parties motives - whether buying/selling shares (soph's, directors etc) or just 'independant' research reports etc chances are the motivations for such an act can vary greatly.

    e.g. some CEO's will truly believe in their company even as the ship goes down. Another CEO knows he gets a bonus if the SP remains within a certain range. Another CEO just wants the company to look successful on his resume and doesn't care if he has to self-fund that good image with cash.

    2. Altering your own decision making process based on subjective reasons - now.. I'm not one to say gut-feel or intuition has no place in markets, as some people do very well from that. Usually this is because their gut-feel is intune with market signals anyway... but what I think is dangerous is making decisions based on the poster/personality that posted them rather than the content.

    For instance, you dislike me, thus I post on a stock perhaps saying its facing a bit of a technically weak period or something and that makes you discard your trading plan for selling points and hold to spite me. That's a bad decision.

    The best way to combat this is to take each post on its merit, some posters have days I agree with them 100% and others we clash, sometimes its like 50/50. The poster shouldn't matter, just the content of the post itself.

    3. confining yourself to stocks because you've invested HC time in them. You've put in work with other posters building a repore and putting together the pieces yet the stock looks technically weak so you've sold. Don't keep it on your primary watchlist for trading. This leads to blinding/bias.

    I also would suggest not visiting the stock thread until you've seen some technical strength or some change in climate which gives you a reason.

    Often sectors of the market are hot and others are cold... use HC to find the hot sectors (ST thread, DT thread etc) and find the good trading (high volatility, etc) stocks in each and use your time maximising your effort-to-profit ratio rather than confining yourself.

    The biggest danger here is that you'll fall in love with the stock or focus so much on waiting for re-entry you miss great opportunities, especially when sectors can go dead (engineering services for instance) for years with very little volume or activity.

    This post was longer than I'd hoped. Thanks for the shoutout @forrestfield
    Last edited by nihilism: 12/12/15
 
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