Not much of a week, lost the mojo early and failed to regather...

Not much of a week, lost the mojo early and failed to regather for balance of week so didn’t trade.

Always had a bit of the contrarian in me, a few SP’s with quality balance sheets attached staring at confirmation of some very ordinary 1H FY actuals for reasons external to model integrity, heavily discounted on that expectation, not interested in 1^st half actuals they are factored in, but more guidance current half and next.

Like these kind of plays as most downside already reflected in SP therefore transaction size can be quite large looking for 30% plus medium-term hold, if guidance is crap the SP will go lower but the majority of damage already done so minor flesh wound and move on, I like the risk / reward profile. (the stock must have a good balance sheet), off top of head maybe BVS

Other than that, the daughters bloody small long-term FA investment account outperforming the boy’s efforts lately, on her behalf added a small holding of CPV to account this week, seems to have support @ 30 ish and about to run into a positive announcement period.

Fwiw her holdings are IMM, CYP, ID8, 3DP (entry higher than Herb’s above ), PBH (this thing is becoming a monster, we have held a large parcel in normal acct for a while), CPV, EX1, AVZ,  NXL (ipo) & MNS)

As advised all these stocks have (perceived) strong IP & huge potential addressable markets but as transparency of majority is clouded at best, time will tell. Will exit on negative FA signal or trade on ‘irrational momentum’ only.

If your scratching your head about some valuations floating around the market atm, fer instance the BNPL & the ecommerce boys  (KGN,TPW,RBL etc) they are being valued on revenue multiples with the arbitrator being compounded growth period on period, while the growth continues the somewhat irrational valuation model will persist, if the % growth starts to tailor off the valuation model will change, people will start to use PE in a sentence, when will that time be? Not seeing anything on the horizon yet.

As for the Battery, EV & REE boys, well this could be their time, would probably have a good take on the concept of musical chairs though just in case, the world is changing fast but please don’t expect it to take any notice of western political expediency.

NXL an interesting stock, all about truth & integrity in the digital world, one would think a disappearing niche market by observation in 2021, not so according to Macquarie who hold approx 30% , noticed also MF started positive coverage the other month, looks like its working its way down to its ipo, worth a slot on the WL, brilliant metrics but revenue valuation multiples could be lower for entry if considering.

The BH had her 1^st wild ‘dolphin experience’ during the week, didn’t cover herself with glory but opportunity beckons.
Hound and I took her down to our favourite ‘secret’ spot, little reef, sitting out the back just the 2 of us while the little bloke patrolled the beach on the lookout for feral ghost crab outbreaks to protect his humans.

BH was banging on about herself, I was thinking about BVS, then she suddenly went quiet, knew it was serious to stop the princess talking about her favourite subject so followed her line of sight and spotted a small family pod about 100m out making a beeline for us, while I was doing that, she was manoeuvring herself so I was between herself and whatever in her mind those big fish in the water were.

“just dolphins hon, come to say hello, relax”, they stayed around for some time, surprised me how close they got, a few actually let her touch them, she was thrilled & pretty much been telling everyone on the SC of the encounter ever since.

On the way home being a trader and sensing advantage brought her initial manoeuvre into the discussion, I mentioned that if danger presented the hound & I would not hesitate to position ourselves between her and foe, this was greeted by a bowser snort in affirmation from the hound in the backseat and a small guilty ‘yes I know’ from the BH.

A sympathy biannual leveraged off guilt on the cards, brought it up in last nights ‘beer & bics’ with the boys, all agreed the obvious play, trade’s a trade, will keep mentioning in passing, see how we go.

Apologies but hound & I n a savage Dylan loop that just won't quit, lasted for months f... me.