The Middle East is where the real dangers are. It is the...

The Middle East is where the real dangers are. It is the epicentre of all of the current geopolitical rivalries. Syria in particular is the hot-spot and will continue to be so.

The only fact we can be sure about is the oil processing facilities have been hit... various versions of 'who dunnit' will now follow. Nothing to stop someone from finishing the job at a later date.

The US is dueling with Iran, Saudi is dueling with Iran [fighting a proxy war with them in Yemen... hence Iran being blamed for this... and who actually knows?] Russia issued a stern warning to Israel just yesterday that they will shoot down Israeli fighters if they continue bombing targets in Syria... China is supporting Iran and just signed a long term deal for oil with them... US is dueling with China and the trade war is only a small piece of that puzzle [not the main game].

The big commercial prize is ... who gets to supply Europe with gas. It is a 50 year deal up for grabs... Russia wants to control the market... hence the war in Ukraine is all about gas pipelines. An alternative route is through Syria hence Russian military support for Assad... Iran has gas and wants to supply the market hence Iran's support for Assad [again pipeline route through Syria]... Saudi has gas and wants the gig, which suits US foreign policy and again Syria is the focus... So the crippling of the Saudi facilities is a very big deal.

How it affects the ASX 200 ... my guess oil companies sourcing oil away from the conflict zone will be bid higher. Australia is particularly badly placed in all of this [ not a bad quick explanation ].... expect a major spike in costs for all business which has a significant fuel bill.