Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge: 13-15 Sept, page-15

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Diver Dan

1,889 Posts.

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14/09/19

09:50

Post #: 40421096
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Originally posted by Diver Dan ↑

Friday's US equities closed flattish with the NDX selling off a bit and more hard selling in the US treasury space today with gains of 7 bps on the 2-year note and 11 bps of yield on the 10 and 30-year issues. December gold spent most of the session just under the 1500 mark. Profit taking across the board. NYSE A-D lines finished at -243 and NYSE breadth at +1.13:1. NASD breadth finished weaker at -1.1:1. The strongest breadth day of the week was Wednesday with its poor ES structure.

As we stalk a choreographed cookie cutter move back toward all-time SPX highs keep in mind ES futures have some obvious structural problems that begin near the first of September. This past Tuesday's foray into the gap from 2939 to 2964.50 isn't really sufficient for people who want more than jive talk from corrupt politicians to invest. Below that keep in mind the gap from 3 to 4 September. Closer in, some very short term traders look at Wednesday's profile and feel a little queasy. It's sort of haphazard with no well-defined poc and a blunt top. A revisit of the 2980 area would seem reasonable but hey you know the drill. Defects in auction structure get fixed by continued bullish euphoria or a revisiting of lower prices. That isn't a profile thing it doesn't matter if you're using candles of profile or whatever. Traders want to rationalize all-time highs and higher without back and fill. This coming Wednesday's FOMC rate decision is now in focus along with yesterday's stronger US Core CPI data. There was US treasury weakness going into the open and it has persisted all session long. Gold is still clinging to the 1500 area but people are nervous about the FOMC meeting.

The temple of bs seems full. The fire marshal might make you wait at the door but they are taking reservations. It can work for ages but mind those gaps and stuff.

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Correction: Wednesday's profile does not have a blunt top at all. It is single characters. No idea where that came from. Thursday's profile however does have a blunt one character top as you can see. That can mean buyers were unsure about going higher and today's action showed more of that. There is that initial late july resistance at 3030 but the focus is on Wednesday since fed funds futures are telling the market to price in a 25 bps rate cut. SPX has trend resistance that comes in near 3040 depending on when you get up there and that combines with mid week hedging resistance at 3050. Anything over that is a melee and would need a quite a catalyst.

XAO Value at posting: 6,777.1
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0 Great analysis

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