STOCKS-IN-UPTREND
@jas626 - Yes I agree the price action does look a bit bearish. See chart below (my simple low cap and spec trading system). But this doesn't mean that the SP will fall below the levels identified below.
The stochastic has crossed down from an overbought conditions and looks like it wants to keep going down (this doesn't mean it will 0f course).
So far the Ultra-High Volume close of 08/03 in the 8c has provided good support.
My "1ATR(10) 3 period look back" trailing stop is at 7.8c. For the trend change to be confirmed this level must not be breached on a close.
The trend change is now being tested. A cross up of the stochastic cycle indicator
from a value below 50
will confirm the trend change indicated by the multiple moving averages.
Fib targets on next impulse move are around 13c to 15 area.
MY trade plan:
1. Wait for stochastic cross up from below 50. This will be the trigger bar.
2. Open Long trade at Close price of trigger bar.
3 Set protective stop at the initial ATR level.
4. Set initial take profit stop at 15c. This level will be managed on a day by day basis.
5. Set trailing stop at the ATR level.
This level will be managed on a day by day basis.
6. Determine Risk/Reward ration and hence amount of capital (# of shares to buy). The Risk $'s is the amount I am prepared to lose on this trade.
7. Let the trade plan run itself.
8. Hope this is one of the 60% to 70% of this type of trade that are successful.
I think I also covered the thread theme in the above. The when to exit question for this trade system has been answered before any trade has been entered.
p.s. The above also is dependent on whether the SP is in what I call a Strong Trend. I use another indicator to determine that and a slightly different trade system. The BLK SP dropped out of what I would consider a strong up trend on Friday.
Hope I covered everything in the above. If not, let me know.
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