Hi. First time posting here
(long time reader though)
A couple of days ago I came across this article:
http://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...e/news-story/d924ef058941e0df3b8e4896e38db882
It brings up some interesting points:
*"Out of all OECD nations, Australia is the most dependent on China by a huge margin, according to the IMF."
*"As a whole, the Australian economy has grown through a property bubble inflating on top of a mining bubble, built on top of a commodities bubble, driven by a China bubble."
*“Chinese banks are looking down the barrel of a staggering $1.7 trillion worth of losses”
*"Steel, of course, is made from iron ore, Australia’s biggest export, and frequently the country’s main driver of a trade surplus and GDP growth."
*Australia is the largest exporter of iron ore in the world, with a 29 per cent global share in 2015-16 and 786Mt exported, and at $48 billion we’re responsible for over half of all global iron ore exports by value. Around 81 per cent of our iron ore exports go to China."
*In May 2017, stockpiles at Chinese ports were at an all time high.."
*"Over the last six years, the price of iron ore has fallen 60 per cent."
*"Australia’s second biggest export is coal, being the largest exporter in the world supplying about 38 per cent of the world’s demand"
*"While exports increased by 49 per cent over that time period, the value of those exports has collapsed 38 per cent, from $54.7 billion to $34 billion."
*"Coal consumption in China has dropped three years in a row, and in January 2017, 100 coal fired power plants were cancelled. China has announced that it is spending a whopping $360 billion on renewables through 2020"
*"According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in 2015-16 the entire Australian mining industry which includes coal, oil and gas, iron ore, the mining of metallic and non-metallic minerals and exploration and support services made a grand total of $179 billion in revenue. It had $171 billion of costs and generated an operating profit before tax of $7 billion which representing a wafer thin 3.9 per cent margin on an operating basis."
*"Australia’s GDP of $1.6 trillion is 69 per cent services. Our “economic miracle” of GDP growth comes from digging rocks out of the ground, shipping the by-products of dead fossils, and stuff we grow. Mining, which used to be 19 per cent, is now seven per cent and falling."
The article then talks about the housing bubble and how house prices have artificially grown etc etc. Whilst I understand that this isn't necessarily the topic of the week (maybe even the wrong thread), I would like to hear the STT forums opinion. Over the last 14 months (when I started investing), I have learned a lot from everyone. Thanks
@Freehold and team
My main questions to everyone:
1. Thoughts on the above? Are you worried? Are you prepared?
2. What would you if it happened tomorrow?
3. Other than shorting, is there any industries that actually grow in this type of crisis?
